Games to Watch and a Revelation in the Making

I am running behind on my blogs this week due to the blog I was going to write Monday night. What started out as a simple, "Let's talk about the 4 teams I think are best..." turned into full blow statistical analysis and a procedure which I feel is a remarkably good way to pick teams for the play-off system. It's fair, it's balanced, it relies on logic rather than emotion, although the emotional "eye test" is still a part of it. I really think I am on to something here! It's pretty darn exciting and the rankings that my system came up surprised even me! The rest of the week has been spent tweaking and refining this system which I will un-veil either later today or Friday. For now, here are the games that matter this weekend:

I have divided this blog into 2 sections:

Section 1 - Games That Only Matter Because an Upset COULD Occur, Although it's not likely

Citadel@Clemson(7)

Prediction: Clemson

Chattanooga@Alabama(1)

Prediction: Alabama

Idaho@Florida State(2)

Prediction: Florida State

Indiana@Ohio State

Prediction: Ohio State(3)

Oregon(5)@Arizona

Prediction: Oregon

Cal@Stanford(9)

Prediction: Stanford

SECTION 2: Games That Really Matter

Michigan State(13)@Northwestern

After a promising season last year and a preseason full of hype Northwestern has promptly failed to live up to ANY expectations. They look to salvage some shred of dignity and try to put a damper on not only Michigan State's season but on Ohio State's as well. Because any loss the Spartans incur before they play the Buckeyes will diminish a probable Buckeye victory. I don't see these Spartans playing the let-down game.

Prediction: Michigan State

Coastal Carolina@South Carolina(11)

After an abysmal performance against Florida, Spurrier's boys hope to get right this week. A loss here would be devastating to an already weak SEC East and would put the Gamecocks out of their national title hopes misery.

Prediction: South Carolina

Texas A&M(12)@LSU(22)

Finally, a game we can sink our teeth into. Two great offenses, two not so great defenses. Both teams are probably feeling like under achievers at this point of the season. But what really matters is who does Alabama want to win this game? I think they need LSU to pull out a win so they can stay in the Top 25, because another loss and the Tigers probably fall from grace and weaken the SEC stranglehold, but it would make a strong case for A&M to go into the Top 10. LSU needs to run the ball for 59 minutes in this game. It's interesting because A&M can't stop the run and LSU can't stop the pass, so which offense makes more plays? Logic says LSU will run the ball, control the clock, and keep Manziel off the field. The only problem I see is that Sam Montgomery, and Barkavious Mingo aren't on the field for LSU when Manziel has the ball.

Prediction: A&M

Wisconsin(19)@Minnesota

The Gophers are on a hot streak. They have beaten Nebraska, they are ranked and only need to win out and hope the Spartans lose at Northwestern and THEY will go to the B10 title game. Oh yeah....did I mention that in winning out that they will have to beat Wisconsin this weekend?

Prediction: Wisconsin

Arizona State(17)@UCLA(14)

This game would be my game of the week if it had more BCS implications. Don't get me wrong, it does, but it means more to the state of the Pac12 Championship game. The winner represents the South, unless UCLA loses to USC the next week. UCLA has only lost to Oregon and Stanford, not too shabby, and Arizona State has lost to Stanford and Notre Dame. UCLA has played the harder schedule but has not looked as sharp lately and it seems the Devils are hitting a stride. But I refuse to give up on UCLA in Pasadena.

Prediction: UCLA

Missouri(8)@Ole Miss(24)

Remember when we thought this was going to a year for Ole Miss to make some news? They aren't doing bad, they are 7-3 and are ranked and have only lost to Bama, A&M (barely), and Auburn. Who hasn't lost to those teams? But the story has become Missouri. They are on their way to the SEC Championship game and they get Franklin back at quarterback. The unknown story is how the Tigers play defense. They have the 14th ranked rushing defense in the country. Just watch out if they have to defend the pass, but it hasn't hurt them yet. However, Ole Miss is tough at home and I don't know if Missouri has been challenged yet this year. They beat a bad Florida team, Kentucky, Vandy, Tennessee, and a depleted Georgia. And they lost to the best team out of the east South Carolina in Missouri.

Prediction: Ole Miss in a semi-upset

Baylor(4)@Oklahoma State(10) GAME OF THE WEEK!!! Baylor for the second week in a row

Baylor's ranked opponents are finally coming up on the schedule and win over the Cowboys should be enough to get them over that Buckeye hump in the BCS. BUT, if they lose then we have to start talking about the Cowboys winning the B12 but costing the B12 a chance at the national championship game. This game is huge, 2 more high powered B12 offenses doing battle. The difference is: Baylor will beat a team up with its run and its defense. Oklahoma State not so much. We have seen it time and time again this year, the physical team wins.

Prediction: Baylor