Wednesday, November 13, 2013

Games to Watch/Bay Wa...er Baylor Watch

So what to think about Baylor? Are they legit? Should Alabama or FSU be worried? Why have I neglected them for so long? Will anyone but Baylor be ranked out of the Big 12 by the end of the year?

Here is the basic line on Baylor
    Scoring offense: 1st - 61 points a game - that's better than Oregon folks!
    Passing offense: 3rd - 390.6 a game - that's better than Texas A&M folks!
    Rushing offense: 9th - 295.4 a game - that's better than Wisconsin
    Total offense: 1st - 686 yards a game - better than everybody
    Scoring defense: 6th - 15.4 points a game - NOT as good as Bama or FSU
    Passing defense: 7th - 173.9 a game - BETTER than Bama!
    Rushing defense: 28th - 132.2 a game - Bama is a LOT better
    Total defense: 9th - 306.1 a game - Not as good as FSU or Bama, but better than Ohio State!

If we look a little deeper at Baylor they are 17th in turnover margin at +7, which is the same as Bama but FSU is +13. So is there any kink in this Baylor armor? Yes, they are 116th in the country with 8 penalties a game.

But the thing that everyone, including myself is doubting about Baylor is that strength of schedule. So lets take it at face value. Baylor's has played ONE ranked team and their opponent's combined record is 37-38 for a winning percentage of 49%. Only 4 out of 8 opponents have winning records on the season. Oklahoma is the high team at 8-1 and Iowa State is the low team at 1-8.

Stanford has played 4 ranked teams at the time they played them and has played 5 teams that have been ranked at some point in the year. The combined record of Stanford's opponent's is 50-32 for a winning percentage of 61%. 6 out of the 9 opponents have winning records with Oregon being the high team at 8-1 and Army being the low team at 3-7.

Oregon has played 3 ranked teams at the time they played them. The combined record of the opponent's is 40-45 for a 47% winning percentage. Only 3 of the their 9 opponents have winning records with Stanford being the high team at 8-1 and Cal being the low team at 1-8.

Ohio State has played 2 ranked teams at the time they played them. The combined record of the the opponent's is 39-48 fora 45% winning percentage. Oddly enough 5 of the 9 opponents have winning records with Wisconsin being the high team at 7-2 and Cal and Purdue bringing up the bottom at 1-9 and 1-8.

Florida State has played 2 ranked teams at the time that they played them but you could say they have played 3 if you still think the AP poll has any meaning. The combined record of the opponent's is 48-36 for a 57% winning percentage. 6 of the 9 opponent's have winning records with Clemson being the top at 8-1 and Nevada being the worse at 3-7. And lets not forget, the Seminoles went INTO Death Valley to beat Clemson.

Alabama has played 3 ranked teams at the time they played them and 4 teams that have been ranked at some time during the season. The combined opponent's record is 42-45 for a winning percentage of 48%. 4 out of 9 teams have a winning record with A&M being the best at 8-2 and Georgia State being the worse at 0-9.

So it's true Baylor has played the fewest ranked teams of any of the contenders. But their opponents have won the third most games next only to FSU's opponents and Stanford's. Upon looking at this, if Baylor beats Texas Tech, Texas, and Oklahoma State that would give them 4 wins over ranked or previously ranked opponents, all of which have winning records. I would seriously consider them to be an elite team. They are putting up yards and numbers which are video game ridiculous. They definitely pass the eye test, strength of schedule seems to be better when compared to other teams ranked around them, and they will probably be a conference champion. The Bears are for sure on the same page with Alabama, FSU, and Stanford and I would give them the edge over Oregon because of the schedule. If Bama or FSU, stumble and Baylor wins out we could very possibly see a coup in the National Championship Game.

I will have more on these 6 teams later on as I break down their eye tests, look at their remaining schedules, and give deeper reasons as to who would be my national championship teams and my 4 play-off teams.

GAMES TO WATCH THIS WEEK

Georgia Tech@Clemson(8)

Why it matters: Clemson will continue to help FSU by winning games. But Georgia Tech has found themselves at the top of their part of the ACC and are looking to book a date with the Seminoles in the ACC Championship game.

Prediction: Clemson

Washington@UCLA(13)

Why it matters: UCLA is trailing Arizona State in the South of the Pac12 and need to win out to get to the Pac12 Championship game where they could really cause some problems against Stanford or Oregon in a re-match. Washington is sitting at 6-3 and has fallen into 4th place in the North. They have not beat a ranked opponent since week 1 against Boise St. Both Oregon and Stanford have played these teams and beat them both. It would probably do them best if UCLA were to keep winning and not lose any ground in the rankings.

Prediction: UCLA

Ohio State(3)@Illinois

Why it matters: Ohio State CANNOT lose a game. I wish they would so we could stop talking about them. They looked sloppy early, they have beat up on weak opponents and it doesn't get any more challenging from here, at least not until the Big10 Championship game. For some reason the Coaches are keeping them high and so is the Harris poll for reasons I cannot understand. One loss and they are done for real real, not for play play.

Prediction: Ohio State

UCF(17)@Temple

Why it matters: Because I wanted to point out that UCF just beat un-beaten Houston, they have beat Louisville, the almost beat South Carolina (which is their only loss) and I still say the AAC is tough.

Prediction: UCF

Syracuse@Florida State(2)

Why it matters: Kiss that national championship goodbye with a loss to the Orange. Everyone is still waiting for FSU to stumble against a lessor opponent this year. I don't see it here.

Prediction: FSU

Georgia(25)@Auburn(7)

Why it matters: Auburn is looking to pull the biggest upset of the year by winning out and then winning the SEC title game and going from #7 to a National Championship all in Gus Malzahn's first year. The fact that they are even in this position is pretty dang impressive. Georgia is the walking wounded, although Gurley is back and running hard. Auburn gives up 156 yards a game on the ground for a 58th national ranking and the defense as a whole is 66th. Georgia is 33rd nationally on defense and allows only 126 yards a game on the ground for a rank of 20th nationally. I don't think Auburn throws the ball and Georiga will load the box.

Prediction: Georgia in a BCS shaker-upper

Oklahoma State(12)@Texas(24)

Why it matters: Baylor needs both of these teams to keep winning. Well it ain't gonna happen this week. Texas has been a beast since conference play started even though they looked rough against West Virginia....oh wait the same West Virginia that handed Ok State their only loss this year. These teams are closely matched, Ok State likes to throw the ball, Texas has a pretty good pass defense this year. Ok St likes to turn people over....so does Texas...they almost have the same turnover margin and Texas has only turned the ball over 1 more time this year than Ok St. Texas has been out-played by an SEC team and a physical BYU team this year. I don't see Ok St being as physical as either of those two teams, but I just don't feel completely confident about Texas continuing to pull out victories. Some of the stats look good, but they don't seem to put teams away like they should. The injuries don't help either.

Prediction: Oklahoma State - sorry Baylor

Michigan State(16)@Nebraska

Why it matters: The winner of this game probably goes to play Ohio State in the Big 10 Championship game and that gets them absolutely nothing. BUT it could save Bo Pelini's job, although I think he needs to win the B10 Championship this year. The Huskers have won 5 games without Taylor Martinez and have pulled out two late game wins. Michigan State is having a season out of no-where and are looking better and better. Ohio State needs Michigan State to win and keep on winning till they meet.

Prediction: Michigan State

Utah@Oregon(6)

Why it matters: Oregon needs to keep winning and hope for another stumble from Stanford. But first things first, beat the team that beat Stanford. And an Oregon win continues to help Stanford as well, how crappy is that for the Ducks?

Prediction: Oregon

Texas Tech@Baylor(5)

Why it matters: Baylor is still trying to impress people and with a schedule that looks weak on the surface they need to beat all the winning teams on their schedule. Hell, they need to beat ALL the teams on their schedule. Texas Tech is a respectable opponent and will show if Baylor's defense is legit. This may be the highest scoring game all year, but I think the Baylor defense proves something to everyone.

Prediction: Baylor

Florida@South Carolina(10)

Why it matters: South Carolina is hoping to still get into the SEC Championship game and they put themselves in great shape with a win over Missouri. A loss to Florida un-does that. The Gamecocks are being helped tremendously by the computers right now, but the Coaches poll hates'em.

Prediction: South Carolina

Alabama(1)@Mississippi State

Why it matters: The experts say a 1 loss SEC Champion will play for a National Championship, hands down. I am not completely sold. Alabama's schedule has not been as strong as Stanford's, FSU's opponent's have won more games and Baylor has looked more dominant all year. Alabama is a champion and could beat any of those teams, I just don't know how forgiving the Coaches or the computers would be with a loss at this time of the season with un-beatens and 1 loss Pac-12 teams still high on the charts.

Prediction: Alabama

Stanford(4)@USC

What it matters: Can Stanford keep from pissing away all that they gained last week? If they play like they did last week the answer is: YES. But Stanford is coming off of three straight weeks of playing ranked teams, will they let down against a surging USC team? Or did those games just serve to sharpen the Cardinal focus?

Prediction: Stanford

So what's the game of the week?
Of course it's TEXAS TECH@BAYLOR!!!!  I will have the break down and other Top 10 observations Sunday morning as well as the primer for the BCS countdown later that day!

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