There will be no more posts for the foreseeable future. My TV has gone out and I will be in able to watch games. Thanks to everyone who read and followed! Your support meant a lot. May your team find its way to a decent bowl and maybe I'll be back for bowl season....I not....definitely next year.
Sunday, October 20, 2013
Thursday, October 17, 2013
Games to Watch Saturday Edition #FloridaState@Clemson
Be sure to check out my profiles on Miami/UNC and UCF/Louisville which I published this morning in the blog titled: Games To Watch Thur/Fri Edition
#Georgia(16)@Vanderbilt
Team with the most to lose: Georgia - I would like to start this off with a few quotes:
"As I stand on the precipice of death." - Dewey Cox
"Look around you Helen, we're at the threshold of hell!" - Clark Griswold
I think these pretty much sum up where Georgia's season stands. One more loss and it's all over.
Team with the most to gain: Vanderbilt - They haven't quite lived up to the hype I gave them in the pre-season, but they can start their way to salvation with a win over the Bulldogs. Vanderbilt won't quit, they have an offense that can score against Georgia and the game is in Nashville. Vandy has had 2 weeks to prepare for this as well. Georgia has the talent to win, hell they had the talent to win last week....
BCS Impact: HIGH whenever 2 SEC teams play
Prediction: Vanderbilt smells blood in the water
#Texas Tech(15)@West Virginia
Team with the most to win/lose: Texas Tech - Next week they travel to Norman to play the Sooners. They can't let WV catch them in a trap this week. WV upset Oklahoma State but Texas Tech is a better team. The Red Raiders defense and offense are some of the best in the country, (not counting the defensive performance against Iowa State). Texas Tech could put themselves into the BCS debate if they run the table and win the conference. Probably not a serious threat for a national championship but they can definitely get a premium BCS bowl birth.
BCS Impact: Medium
Prediction: Texas Tech
#South Carolina(9)@Tennessee
Team with the most win/lose: South Carolina - They are on the second game in a stretch of three straight road games. The Gamecocks blew out Arkansas, now travel to Tennessee, and then have to travel to Missouri. This is the game they will lose if they lose one. The Gamecocks may be spent after last week and looking ahead to the un-defeated Tigers. I personally think they figured something out about themselves last week and will remember what Tennessee did to Georgia. The Gamecocks are healthier than Georgia with a defense that's improving and an offense that has been consistent on big yardage all year.
BCS Impact; High
Prediction: South Carolina
#TCU@Oklahoma State(17)
Team with the most to lose: Oklahoma State - They already have one loss in conference and are chasing Texas, Texas Tech, and Baylor. All of whom will probably still be un-defeated after this Saturday. Texas on the bye week has me the most worried. Oklahoma State still has chances if they lose because they will still have to play the three teams ahead of them, but if they are 2-3 games back in the standings it could be too little too late.
Team with the most to gain: TCU - They almost beat Oklahoma and exposed Blake Bell. Can they do the same again? They are trying to get relevant again in the wide open B12 and a win here will start that trend, add a win against Texas next week and the Frogs are looking good. The loss to Texas Tech could end up being huge though. They already have 2 losses and the Frogs have yet to play Baylor so the chances of making it to the top are already slim, but they are gone with a loss here. I can see them causing the OK State offense problems, but I don't think the TCU offense will be able to score enough.
BCS Impact: Low to Medium
Prediction: Oklahoma State
#Florida(22)@Missouri(14)
Team with the most to lose: Florida gets the nod because Missouri had nothing to lose before the season started. Florida was supposed to be a national title contender and now there's no certainty they can beat Missouri. Florida's offense is terrible. They average 21.8 points a game, they looked the worse I have seen them against LSU, but Missouri doesn't have an LSU defense...or even a Razorback defense. Florida likes to run the ball and control the clock but they only average 3.9 yards rush. Mack Brown is only averaging 3.7...It's far from being dominate. Missouri's run defense is 25th nationally. Florida, like Georgia is on the edge of oblivion. And oblivion is in Columbia Missouri this weekend.
Team with the most to gain: Missouri - SEC East champs?? What the hell is going on here??!?! It's all about this week and next week. Florida now, South Carolina then. Then they could lose a dumb one to Tennessee and it wouldn't even matter as long as they won out. Then they get to the SEC Championship game....simply amazing what could happen here. A loss here doesn't kill them, but it brings them into the mess with South Carolina and Florida all with one loss each. Don't make problems for yourself Missouri. Now, the loss of their quarterback Franklin is HUGE and will impact the rest of the year. Do they have enough to win without their leader? What will happen with the passing game? The passing game was 33rd nationally at 276 a game, BUT MISSOURI RUNS THE BALL - 16th in the country at 239 yards a game. Have you seen the tape of Florida's run defense against Arkansas and LSU? But if Florida can get a lead and force Missouri to pass, Hargreaves and Purifoy will eat the Tigers up.
BCS impact: HIGH
Prediction: Missouri
#Auburn@Texas A&M(7)
Team with the most to lose: Texas A&M - What happens when the 104th ranked run defense (A&M) goes up against the 7th best running offense (Auburn)? THAT"S WHAT WE ARE ABOUT TO FIND OUT!!! The Aggies are in the thick of the SEC West race with a loss against Bama, a game to come against LSU, and an identical record in conference as the Auburn Tigers. A loss here would be close to devastating. A two loss East team could probably get to the SEC title game, but not a 2 loss West team.
Team with the most to gain: Auburn and everyone that has played them. A win will get them ranked right before the first BCS and give all their SEC opponents a nice bump in the computers. And the only thing better than the running game for Auburn is their defense. They are 21st in points allowed, 50th in rushing allowed and 67th in total yards allowed against teams such as Washington State, LSU, and Ole Miss. However the A&M D should feel good about.....I really don't know, they gave up 21 points in the fourth quarter last week....I guess....they can feel good about....Auburn doesn't throw the ball near as well as Ole Miss?
BCS Impact: HIGH
Prediction: A&M
#UCLA(10)@Stanford(13)
Team with the most to lose: Stanford - I told all of you that the Utah game was going to be a trap for the Cardinal. I just told you the wrong team was going to win, as ONE of you faithful readers point out to me EVERY. SINGLE. DAY. Thanks. Well the fun never ends here and it doesn't end for the Cardinal. Luckily they get the Bruins at home. Stanford needs this win in the worst way. They lost the one game in this stretch of games that they could not lose if they wanted to play for a national championship. That puts them in must wins against UCLA, Oregon State next week and Oregon the week after that. Granted the two Oregon teams are Stanford's side of the conference but if they go into those games with 2 losses in conference already it probably won't matter.
Team with the most to gain: UCLA - A win here and they are in the first BCS Top 10 hands down and are serious contenders for a national championship. That may only last a week since they have Oregon next week but I expect UCLA to be in the Pac12 championship game and if they win, why couldn't they be the #2 team in the country? UCLA has a Top 10 offense and a Top 30 defense, but the last team that played Stanford with those kind of stats was Washington. I don't see the same lack of discipline or mental lapses out of UCLA that I see in Washington. And lets be honest, special teams was a deciding factor in the Washington/Stanford game as well, so UCLA needs to be sound in all three areas. The real question is: Does Stanford really lose two straight games?
BCS Impact: HIGH
Prediction: All stats and emotions and BCS crap aside, this is a really close game between two of the best out of the Pac12 and when you strip this game down I have no choice but to pick the team that I think is the better overall team: UCLA
#Washington(25)@Arizona State
Team with the most to lose: Washington and all the teams they play - They are coming off of two straight heart breakers, so what is their mental state on the road? They are probably out of the discussion as far as the Pac12 race goes but they are still trying to salvage a winning record and a decent bowl game.
Team with the most to gain: Arizona State - They have been talking about signature wins all year, how would a win against Washington rank on that list? Yea...pretty big. Also big is the BCS mayhem an Arizona State win could cause in the Pac12. Washington is a quality opponent right now and that idea could take a hit with a loss here. Arizona should be expected to lose this one and with losses against Notre Dame and Stanford it would seem like a pretty safe bet.
BCS impact: HIGH
Prediction: Washington
#LSU(8)@Ole Miss
Team with the most to lose: LSU - They are the BCS team in the best position to make it to #1 right now. Unless they lose to Ole Miss. The Rebels standing as a quality opponent is in jeopardy after 3 straight losses. They are a talented team, but who would have thought they could be on the verge of 4 straight losses? Anyone who looked at their schedule that is, but who knew Auburn was going to have a rebound? LSU could be on an emotional let down after the Florida win, but I didn't see a lot of emotion on the field last week for the Tigers; I saw a determined, focused team who was very businesslike in their approach. They don't have much of an opponent next week so they should be fired up this week. We will find out if that LSU pass defense has fixed their issues against the Rebels as well.
Team with the most to gain: LSU - The BCS season is over for the Rebels and the Tigers are smelling a national championship run. The Tiger coaches are ready, but can they get all those young kids on defense ready? They didn't look ready against Georgia in their biggest game of the year. Well, the games don't get no smaller from here on out: Ole Miss, Furman, BYE WEEK, ALABAMA (for the national championship), TEXAS A&M.
BCS impact; HIGH
Prediction: LSU
#Washington State@Oregon(2)
Team with the most to lose: Oregon - They have the conference and the country by the throat right now and a loss to the un-ranked Cougars would loosen that grip quite a bit, and if UCLA were to win....hmmmm.....intrigue abounds. But Oregon would still have the upper hand on their side of the conference and a win against Stanford AND UCLA would cure all ills. Speaking of UCLA...does Oregon fall into the Cougar trap? Last week an emotional win against Washington, this week is Washington State, next week UCLA...What the Duck is Oregon made of mentally? We will soon find out.
Team with the most to gain: Oregon gets the nod because Washington State has nothing to gain by winning this game except a building block for next year. The Cougars are 4-3 and are having a nice season. But if you look at those 3 losses: 394 yards given up to Auburn, 560 yards given up to Stanford, and 598 yards given up to Oregon State. The Cougars give up an average of 400 yards a game on the year. Also in the 3 losses Washington State scored 24 against Auburn, 17 against Stanford, and 24 against Oregon State. They average 30 points a game on the year. Oregon has better offensive and defensive units that all the teams Washington State has lost to.
BCS impact: Medium to High
Prediction: Oregon
#Florida State(5)@Clemson(4) - GAME OF THE WEEK
This is the game I will have the complete beak-down of on Saturday night!! I can't wait, this one is going to be awesome!!!
Team with the most to gain/lose: Florida State/Clemson - The teams remaining on FSU's schedule after Clemson are: NC State, Miami, Wake Forest, Syracuse, Idaho, Florida. If the Seminoles don't get it here, where do they get a quality win? Miami is losing to UNC at the time of this writing and who knows where Florida will be by the end of the year or the SEC East as a whole. This makes this a must win game for FSU. This game may determine who plays for a national championship if anyone out of the ACC. However, I GUARANTEE that this game will determine who WILL NOT represent the ACC in a national championship game. Florida State is a juggernaut in both points allowed (3rd), points scored (3rd), yards allowed (7th), and yards gained (4th), and I have been quick to put them at the top of my own power rankings, however, a legitimate question can be asked: Who have they played? The played well on the road against Pitt, they came from behind on the road against BC, and they trounced Maryland. That's all they got.
Clemson's schedule is not much better, they have beat the now suffering Georgia Bulldogs, and they struggled against BC and NC State. After FSU, there is no one but South Carolina left on the schedule. Once again, where are the quality wins coming from? Who-ever wins this game MUST go on to win the ACC Championship and hope Oregon loses a game and that the SEC continues to eat itself alive. But the loser doesn't have a shot. Clemson isn't too shabby this year either at 13th in total yards gained, 21st in yards allowed, and 17th in points scored and 10th in points allowed. A deeper look at the points allowed shows this trend: Georgia 37.5 pt average on the year, scored 35 against Clemson
SCarolina St: 32 pt average on the year, scored 13 against Clemson
NC State: 24.7 pt average, scored 14 against Clemson
Wake Forest: 20 pt average, scored 7 against Clemson
Syracuse: 31.3 pt average, scored 14 against Clemson
Boston College: 25.2 pt average, scored 14 against Clemson
That Clemson D is a lot better than we thought they would be.
Florida State scores more than ANY of the above opponents though. This game is going to be a defensive struggle and the offensive drives will come in spurts with nothing consistent. Clemson has play makers all over the field. Florida State has a freshman quarterback going into Death Valley, but he has determination and heart. I am worried about Boyd's heart if things go wrong early. Florida State has had 2 weeks to prepare...so has Clemson after they took the week off against Boston College. Both of these teams have a bad habit of losing a game they shouldn't lose in the course of a season. I have been dreading picking this game since the first week of the year.
BCS Impact: HIGH
Prediction: CLEMSON
has turned the ball over 6 times this year, Florida State only 3
FLORIDA STATE
has forced 7 turnovers for a +4 margin
CLEMSON
has forced 15 turnovers for a +9 margin
FLORIDA STATE
has allowed 9 sacks this year and has gotten 10
CLEMSON
has allowed 13 sacks and has gotten 24....
CLEMSON
is the pick
#Georgia(16)@Vanderbilt
Team with the most to lose: Georgia - I would like to start this off with a few quotes:
"As I stand on the precipice of death." - Dewey Cox
"Look around you Helen, we're at the threshold of hell!" - Clark Griswold
I think these pretty much sum up where Georgia's season stands. One more loss and it's all over.
Team with the most to gain: Vanderbilt - They haven't quite lived up to the hype I gave them in the pre-season, but they can start their way to salvation with a win over the Bulldogs. Vanderbilt won't quit, they have an offense that can score against Georgia and the game is in Nashville. Vandy has had 2 weeks to prepare for this as well. Georgia has the talent to win, hell they had the talent to win last week....
BCS Impact: HIGH whenever 2 SEC teams play
Prediction: Vanderbilt smells blood in the water
#Texas Tech(15)@West Virginia
Team with the most to win/lose: Texas Tech - Next week they travel to Norman to play the Sooners. They can't let WV catch them in a trap this week. WV upset Oklahoma State but Texas Tech is a better team. The Red Raiders defense and offense are some of the best in the country, (not counting the defensive performance against Iowa State). Texas Tech could put themselves into the BCS debate if they run the table and win the conference. Probably not a serious threat for a national championship but they can definitely get a premium BCS bowl birth.
BCS Impact: Medium
Prediction: Texas Tech
#South Carolina(9)@Tennessee
Team with the most win/lose: South Carolina - They are on the second game in a stretch of three straight road games. The Gamecocks blew out Arkansas, now travel to Tennessee, and then have to travel to Missouri. This is the game they will lose if they lose one. The Gamecocks may be spent after last week and looking ahead to the un-defeated Tigers. I personally think they figured something out about themselves last week and will remember what Tennessee did to Georgia. The Gamecocks are healthier than Georgia with a defense that's improving and an offense that has been consistent on big yardage all year.
BCS Impact; High
Prediction: South Carolina
#TCU@Oklahoma State(17)
Team with the most to lose: Oklahoma State - They already have one loss in conference and are chasing Texas, Texas Tech, and Baylor. All of whom will probably still be un-defeated after this Saturday. Texas on the bye week has me the most worried. Oklahoma State still has chances if they lose because they will still have to play the three teams ahead of them, but if they are 2-3 games back in the standings it could be too little too late.
Team with the most to gain: TCU - They almost beat Oklahoma and exposed Blake Bell. Can they do the same again? They are trying to get relevant again in the wide open B12 and a win here will start that trend, add a win against Texas next week and the Frogs are looking good. The loss to Texas Tech could end up being huge though. They already have 2 losses and the Frogs have yet to play Baylor so the chances of making it to the top are already slim, but they are gone with a loss here. I can see them causing the OK State offense problems, but I don't think the TCU offense will be able to score enough.
BCS Impact: Low to Medium
Prediction: Oklahoma State
#Florida(22)@Missouri(14)
Team with the most to lose: Florida gets the nod because Missouri had nothing to lose before the season started. Florida was supposed to be a national title contender and now there's no certainty they can beat Missouri. Florida's offense is terrible. They average 21.8 points a game, they looked the worse I have seen them against LSU, but Missouri doesn't have an LSU defense...or even a Razorback defense. Florida likes to run the ball and control the clock but they only average 3.9 yards rush. Mack Brown is only averaging 3.7...It's far from being dominate. Missouri's run defense is 25th nationally. Florida, like Georgia is on the edge of oblivion. And oblivion is in Columbia Missouri this weekend.
Team with the most to gain: Missouri - SEC East champs?? What the hell is going on here??!?! It's all about this week and next week. Florida now, South Carolina then. Then they could lose a dumb one to Tennessee and it wouldn't even matter as long as they won out. Then they get to the SEC Championship game....simply amazing what could happen here. A loss here doesn't kill them, but it brings them into the mess with South Carolina and Florida all with one loss each. Don't make problems for yourself Missouri. Now, the loss of their quarterback Franklin is HUGE and will impact the rest of the year. Do they have enough to win without their leader? What will happen with the passing game? The passing game was 33rd nationally at 276 a game, BUT MISSOURI RUNS THE BALL - 16th in the country at 239 yards a game. Have you seen the tape of Florida's run defense against Arkansas and LSU? But if Florida can get a lead and force Missouri to pass, Hargreaves and Purifoy will eat the Tigers up.
BCS impact: HIGH
Prediction: Missouri
#Auburn@Texas A&M(7)
Team with the most to lose: Texas A&M - What happens when the 104th ranked run defense (A&M) goes up against the 7th best running offense (Auburn)? THAT"S WHAT WE ARE ABOUT TO FIND OUT!!! The Aggies are in the thick of the SEC West race with a loss against Bama, a game to come against LSU, and an identical record in conference as the Auburn Tigers. A loss here would be close to devastating. A two loss East team could probably get to the SEC title game, but not a 2 loss West team.
Team with the most to gain: Auburn and everyone that has played them. A win will get them ranked right before the first BCS and give all their SEC opponents a nice bump in the computers. And the only thing better than the running game for Auburn is their defense. They are 21st in points allowed, 50th in rushing allowed and 67th in total yards allowed against teams such as Washington State, LSU, and Ole Miss. However the A&M D should feel good about.....I really don't know, they gave up 21 points in the fourth quarter last week....I guess....they can feel good about....Auburn doesn't throw the ball near as well as Ole Miss?
BCS Impact: HIGH
Prediction: A&M
#UCLA(10)@Stanford(13)
Team with the most to lose: Stanford - I told all of you that the Utah game was going to be a trap for the Cardinal. I just told you the wrong team was going to win, as ONE of you faithful readers point out to me EVERY. SINGLE. DAY. Thanks. Well the fun never ends here and it doesn't end for the Cardinal. Luckily they get the Bruins at home. Stanford needs this win in the worst way. They lost the one game in this stretch of games that they could not lose if they wanted to play for a national championship. That puts them in must wins against UCLA, Oregon State next week and Oregon the week after that. Granted the two Oregon teams are Stanford's side of the conference but if they go into those games with 2 losses in conference already it probably won't matter.
Team with the most to gain: UCLA - A win here and they are in the first BCS Top 10 hands down and are serious contenders for a national championship. That may only last a week since they have Oregon next week but I expect UCLA to be in the Pac12 championship game and if they win, why couldn't they be the #2 team in the country? UCLA has a Top 10 offense and a Top 30 defense, but the last team that played Stanford with those kind of stats was Washington. I don't see the same lack of discipline or mental lapses out of UCLA that I see in Washington. And lets be honest, special teams was a deciding factor in the Washington/Stanford game as well, so UCLA needs to be sound in all three areas. The real question is: Does Stanford really lose two straight games?
BCS Impact: HIGH
Prediction: All stats and emotions and BCS crap aside, this is a really close game between two of the best out of the Pac12 and when you strip this game down I have no choice but to pick the team that I think is the better overall team: UCLA
#Washington(25)@Arizona State
Team with the most to lose: Washington and all the teams they play - They are coming off of two straight heart breakers, so what is their mental state on the road? They are probably out of the discussion as far as the Pac12 race goes but they are still trying to salvage a winning record and a decent bowl game.
Team with the most to gain: Arizona State - They have been talking about signature wins all year, how would a win against Washington rank on that list? Yea...pretty big. Also big is the BCS mayhem an Arizona State win could cause in the Pac12. Washington is a quality opponent right now and that idea could take a hit with a loss here. Arizona should be expected to lose this one and with losses against Notre Dame and Stanford it would seem like a pretty safe bet.
BCS impact: HIGH
Prediction: Washington
#LSU(8)@Ole Miss
Team with the most to lose: LSU - They are the BCS team in the best position to make it to #1 right now. Unless they lose to Ole Miss. The Rebels standing as a quality opponent is in jeopardy after 3 straight losses. They are a talented team, but who would have thought they could be on the verge of 4 straight losses? Anyone who looked at their schedule that is, but who knew Auburn was going to have a rebound? LSU could be on an emotional let down after the Florida win, but I didn't see a lot of emotion on the field last week for the Tigers; I saw a determined, focused team who was very businesslike in their approach. They don't have much of an opponent next week so they should be fired up this week. We will find out if that LSU pass defense has fixed their issues against the Rebels as well.
Team with the most to gain: LSU - The BCS season is over for the Rebels and the Tigers are smelling a national championship run. The Tiger coaches are ready, but can they get all those young kids on defense ready? They didn't look ready against Georgia in their biggest game of the year. Well, the games don't get no smaller from here on out: Ole Miss, Furman, BYE WEEK, ALABAMA (for the national championship), TEXAS A&M.
BCS impact; HIGH
Prediction: LSU
#Washington State@Oregon(2)
Team with the most to lose: Oregon - They have the conference and the country by the throat right now and a loss to the un-ranked Cougars would loosen that grip quite a bit, and if UCLA were to win....hmmmm.....intrigue abounds. But Oregon would still have the upper hand on their side of the conference and a win against Stanford AND UCLA would cure all ills. Speaking of UCLA...does Oregon fall into the Cougar trap? Last week an emotional win against Washington, this week is Washington State, next week UCLA...What the Duck is Oregon made of mentally? We will soon find out.
Team with the most to gain: Oregon gets the nod because Washington State has nothing to gain by winning this game except a building block for next year. The Cougars are 4-3 and are having a nice season. But if you look at those 3 losses: 394 yards given up to Auburn, 560 yards given up to Stanford, and 598 yards given up to Oregon State. The Cougars give up an average of 400 yards a game on the year. Also in the 3 losses Washington State scored 24 against Auburn, 17 against Stanford, and 24 against Oregon State. They average 30 points a game on the year. Oregon has better offensive and defensive units that all the teams Washington State has lost to.
BCS impact: Medium to High
Prediction: Oregon
#Florida State(5)@Clemson(4) - GAME OF THE WEEK
This is the game I will have the complete beak-down of on Saturday night!! I can't wait, this one is going to be awesome!!!
Team with the most to gain/lose: Florida State/Clemson - The teams remaining on FSU's schedule after Clemson are: NC State, Miami, Wake Forest, Syracuse, Idaho, Florida. If the Seminoles don't get it here, where do they get a quality win? Miami is losing to UNC at the time of this writing and who knows where Florida will be by the end of the year or the SEC East as a whole. This makes this a must win game for FSU. This game may determine who plays for a national championship if anyone out of the ACC. However, I GUARANTEE that this game will determine who WILL NOT represent the ACC in a national championship game. Florida State is a juggernaut in both points allowed (3rd), points scored (3rd), yards allowed (7th), and yards gained (4th), and I have been quick to put them at the top of my own power rankings, however, a legitimate question can be asked: Who have they played? The played well on the road against Pitt, they came from behind on the road against BC, and they trounced Maryland. That's all they got.
Clemson's schedule is not much better, they have beat the now suffering Georgia Bulldogs, and they struggled against BC and NC State. After FSU, there is no one but South Carolina left on the schedule. Once again, where are the quality wins coming from? Who-ever wins this game MUST go on to win the ACC Championship and hope Oregon loses a game and that the SEC continues to eat itself alive. But the loser doesn't have a shot. Clemson isn't too shabby this year either at 13th in total yards gained, 21st in yards allowed, and 17th in points scored and 10th in points allowed. A deeper look at the points allowed shows this trend: Georgia 37.5 pt average on the year, scored 35 against Clemson
SCarolina St: 32 pt average on the year, scored 13 against Clemson
NC State: 24.7 pt average, scored 14 against Clemson
Wake Forest: 20 pt average, scored 7 against Clemson
Syracuse: 31.3 pt average, scored 14 against Clemson
Boston College: 25.2 pt average, scored 14 against Clemson
That Clemson D is a lot better than we thought they would be.
Florida State scores more than ANY of the above opponents though. This game is going to be a defensive struggle and the offensive drives will come in spurts with nothing consistent. Clemson has play makers all over the field. Florida State has a freshman quarterback going into Death Valley, but he has determination and heart. I am worried about Boyd's heart if things go wrong early. Florida State has had 2 weeks to prepare...so has Clemson after they took the week off against Boston College. Both of these teams have a bad habit of losing a game they shouldn't lose in the course of a season. I have been dreading picking this game since the first week of the year.
BCS Impact: HIGH
Prediction: CLEMSON
has turned the ball over 6 times this year, Florida State only 3
FLORIDA STATE
has forced 7 turnovers for a +4 margin
CLEMSON
has forced 15 turnovers for a +9 margin
FLORIDA STATE
has allowed 9 sacks this year and has gotten 10
CLEMSON
has allowed 13 sacks and has gotten 24....
CLEMSON
is the pick
Games to Watch Thur/Fri Edition
It has been an extremely busy week in the non-football aspects of my life! So I am I not publishing my usual games of the week blog at this moment. I am putting out a short version of the two games that made my list for tonight and Friday and I will be back tonight with the run-down of the rest of the weekend's games.
Miami(11)@North Carolina - Thursday night
Team with the most to lose/gain: Miami - They are #11 in the Coaches Poll and #10 in the Harris poll. This is the last game before the BCS computers jump in on the fun. They cannot afford a let down game against the Tar-Heels. The Hurricanes do have a win over Florida but there hasn't been much on the schedule up to this point. Miami must win the games they should win, like this one, and then with games left against Va Tech, and Florida State, Miami could be looking good in the BCS. And if they could pull off a victory in the ACC Championship against FSU or Clemson there's no telling where Miami could end up, but right at the top seems a good assumption. Assuming that Virginia Tech stays relevant which they should and that Miami doesn't trip against a team like UNC on their way to the ACC Championship. Va Tech doesn't play FSU or Clemson this year so their biggest game is against Miami. The chances of the Hokies being un-defeated when they play the Hurricanes are much greater than the Hurricanes of being un-defeated. The Canes cannot let this game trip them up.
BCS impact: Medium
Prediction: Miami
UCF@Louisville(6) on Friday
Team with the most to lose/gain: Louisville - At #6 in the Coaches and Harris polls I believe the computers are going to HATE Louisville, and I believe they will hate them so much that Louisville fails to make the Top 10 in the first BCS. So how important is it that Louisville goes undefeated? Yeah, pretty important. But UCF will be another tough opponent for them. South Carolina is the 29th ranked pass defense in the nation and they gave up 358 yards to UCF. However, Louisville is #5 in the country in pass D though. UCF is no slouch, they are #11 in scoring defense, and #32 in scoring defense. They beat Penn St. and gave South Carolina all they wanted. Hopefully unlike last week, this match-up with Louisville should prove to be one of the best games of the week. The Cardinals will be tested, but they are at home and I feel like they are on a mission to prove themselves to everyone, even if the computers don't care.
BCS impact: low
Prediction: Louisville
To be continued.........
Miami(11)@North Carolina - Thursday night
Team with the most to lose/gain: Miami - They are #11 in the Coaches Poll and #10 in the Harris poll. This is the last game before the BCS computers jump in on the fun. They cannot afford a let down game against the Tar-Heels. The Hurricanes do have a win over Florida but there hasn't been much on the schedule up to this point. Miami must win the games they should win, like this one, and then with games left against Va Tech, and Florida State, Miami could be looking good in the BCS. And if they could pull off a victory in the ACC Championship against FSU or Clemson there's no telling where Miami could end up, but right at the top seems a good assumption. Assuming that Virginia Tech stays relevant which they should and that Miami doesn't trip against a team like UNC on their way to the ACC Championship. Va Tech doesn't play FSU or Clemson this year so their biggest game is against Miami. The chances of the Hokies being un-defeated when they play the Hurricanes are much greater than the Hurricanes of being un-defeated. The Canes cannot let this game trip them up.
BCS impact: Medium
Prediction: Miami
UCF@Louisville(6) on Friday
Team with the most to lose/gain: Louisville - At #6 in the Coaches and Harris polls I believe the computers are going to HATE Louisville, and I believe they will hate them so much that Louisville fails to make the Top 10 in the first BCS. So how important is it that Louisville goes undefeated? Yeah, pretty important. But UCF will be another tough opponent for them. South Carolina is the 29th ranked pass defense in the nation and they gave up 358 yards to UCF. However, Louisville is #5 in the country in pass D though. UCF is no slouch, they are #11 in scoring defense, and #32 in scoring defense. They beat Penn St. and gave South Carolina all they wanted. Hopefully unlike last week, this match-up with Louisville should prove to be one of the best games of the week. The Cardinals will be tested, but they are at home and I feel like they are on a mission to prove themselves to everyone, even if the computers don't care.
BCS impact: low
Prediction: Louisville
To be continued.........
Monday, October 14, 2013
Whatever Happened to Defense in the SEC? Part 4
And now it is time for the gripping conclusion to my 4 part special on defense in the SEC. AND we find out once and for all, what happened to it, if anything.
First lets set the table with up to date SEC stats defensively and offensively. Teams are ranked by Total D or Total Offense and the Top 50 teams in scoring are highlighted.
First lets set the table with up to date SEC stats defensively and offensively. Teams are ranked by Total D or Total Offense and the Top 50 teams in scoring are highlighted.
| Team | Points Allowed | Rank | Passing Allowed | Rank | Rushing Allowed | Rank | Total Defense | Rank |
| Florida | 13 | 4 | 152 | 3 | 83.3 | 4 | 235.3 | 3 |
| Alabama | 11.3 | 2 | 191 | 21 | 87.2 | 7 | 278.2 | 8 |
| South Carolina | 22.7 | 39 | 202.7 | 29 | 142.8 | 44 | 345.5 | 23 |
| LSU | 22 | 34 | 196.3 | 24 | 152.5 | 56 | 348.9 | 29 |
| Miss. State | 23 | 42 | 220.5 | 51 | 144 | 46 | 364.5 | 41 |
| Arkansas | 27.6 | 72 | 221.4 | 53 | 146.3 | 49 | 367.7 | 44 |
| Vanderbilt | 26.5 | 64 | 221.5 | 54 | 168.5 | 75 | 390 | 58 |
| Georgia | 33.7 | 105 | 259.3 | 96 | 139.7 | 36 | 399 | 65 |
| Ole Miss | 27.8 | 74 | 212.3 | 41 | 186.7 | 91 | 399 | 65 |
| Auburn | 18.8 | 21 | 252.8 | 88 | 146.3 | 50 | 399.2 | 67 |
| Tennessee | 28 | 75 | 240.8 | 78 | 175.7 | 80 | 416.5 | 80 |
| Missouri | 23 | 42 | 293.2 | 113 | 126.2 | 25 | 419.3 | 83 |
| Kentucky | 29.3 | 86 | 224 | 60 | 213.3 | 108 | 437.3 | 95 |
| Texas A&M | 32 | 96 | 273.2 | 105 | 201.2 | 104 | 474.3 | 113 |
| Team | Points | Rank | Passing | Rank | Rushing | Rank | Total Offense | Rank |
| Texas A&M | 47.8 | 4 | 361.8 | 6 | 224.7 | 20 | 586.5 | 3 |
| Georiga | 37.5 | 27 | 311 | 19 | 206.3 | 34 | 517.3 | 11 |
| Missouri | 45.7 | 8 | 276.3 | 33 | 239.3 | 16 | 515.7 | 12 |
| South Carolina | 34.5 | 38 | 260.8 | 44 | 225.7 | 19 | 486.5 | 23 |
| Auburn | 34.3 | 40 | 187.2 | 103 | 287 | 7 | 474.2 | 28 |
| LSU | 41.4 | 15 | 271.6 | 37 | 194.1 | 43 | 465.7 | 34 |
| Miss. State | 30.5 | 58 | 243.2 | 61 | 214.3 | 26 | 457.5 | 36 |
| Alabama | 38.8 | 23 | 260.2 | 45 | 188.3 | 50 | 448.5 | 44 |
| Ole Miss | 29 | 71 | 258 | 49 | 175.5 | 61 | 433.5 | 55 |
| Vanderbilt | 33.7 | 43 | 272 | 35 | 153 | 80 | 425 | 57 |
| Tennessee | 31.7 | 51 | 164.2 | 111 | 211 | 29 | 375.2 | 87 |
| Arkansas | 23.3 | 94 | 154.6 | 113 | 216.3 | 24 | 370.9 | 91 |
| Florida | 21.8 | 102 | 189.3 | 101 | 178.5 | 58 | 367.8 | 93 |
| Kentucky | 20.3 | 103 | 201.5 | 94 | 150.8 | 83 | 352.3 | 101 |
The stats have changed as follows:
Average points scored by the SEC: 33.6
Average points allowed by the SEC: 24
Now in order to judge the SEC against the rest of the country I had to bring in most of the Top 25. I picked 15 teams that round out to roughly the Top 20 with the ranked SEC schools included and then I added Rutgers. Every conference had more than one representative except the AAC and I chose Rutgers because they have played the toughest schedule of any AAC team to date. I wanted to see how the rest of the country played against other Top 25 opponents and Rutgers was the only AAC team to have played not 1, but 2 Top 25 opponents. And to make sure I had a good enough sample size (since not all schools play Top 25 caliber opponents) I interpreted Top 25 opponents to mean any team that is currently ranked in the COACHES poll and any team that WAS ranked in the Coaches poll.
So lets get some baseline stats on the rest of the country using my "Select 16".
| Team | Points Allowed | Rank | Passing Allowed | Rank | Rushing Allowed | Rank | Total Defense | Rank |
| Louisville | 7.3 | 1 | 161.2 | 5 | 68.3 | 2 | 229.5 | 2 |
| Virginia Tech | 15 | 7 | 165 | 7 | 91 | 12 | 256 | 4 |
| Florida State | 12 | 3 | 149 | 2 | 127.8 | 27 | 276.8 | 7 |
| Miami | 16 | 9 | 141.4 | 1 | 165.6 | 69 | 307 | 12 |
| Oklahoma | 16.8 | 12 | 172 | 11 | 137.7 | 33 | 308.8 | 13 |
| Michigan | 23.3 | 44 | 229.7 | 65 | 89.5 | 9 | 319.2 | 14 |
| Ohio State | 19.2 | 24 | 240 | 77 | 86.2 | 6 | 326.2 | 15 |
| Oregon | 13.8 | 6 | 201 | 27 | 137.7 | 34 | 338.7 | 18 |
| Washington | 19.8 | 25 | 182.2 | 16 | 162 | 67 | 344.2 | 20 |
| Clemson | 16.2 | 10 | 186.5 | 18 | 158.3 | 64 | 344.8 | 21 |
| Texas Tech | 17.3 | 15 | 231.7 | 66 | 113.2 | 17 | 344.8 | 21 |
| Baylor | 18 | 18 | 190.8 | 20 | 155.2 | 59 | 346 | 24 |
| UCLA | 18.2 | 19 | 206.8 | 35 | 141 | 40 | 347.8 | 27 |
| Oklahoma St. | 20 | 26 | 245.4 | 82 | 115.8 | 18 | 361.2 | 38 |
| Stanford | 22.2 | 36 | 256.3 | 93 | 123.3 | 24 | 379.7 | 48 |
| Rutgers | 27 | 68 | 306.8 | 116 | 84 | 5 | 390.8 | 59 |
| Team | Points | Rank | Passing | Rank | Rushing | Rank | Total Offense | Rank |
| Baylor | 63.4 | 1 | 414.2 | 2 | 301.2 | 4 | 715.4 | 1 |
| Oregon | 56.8 | 2 | 306.5 | 21 | 374 | 3 | 630.5 | 2 |
| Florida State | 53.6 | 3 | 320.8 | 18 | 228.2 | 17 | 549 | 4 |
| UCLA | 45.8 | 7 | 323.6 | 17 | 223.4 | 21 | 547 | 5 |
| Texas Tech | 41.8 | 13 | 408.8 | 3 | 135.2 | 97 | 544 | 6 |
| Washington | 35.2 | 35 | 278.8 | 30 | 248 | 15 | 526.8 | 8 |
| Clemson | 40.8 | 17 | 342 | 10 | 172.5 | 65 | 514.5 | 13 |
| Louisville | 41 | 16 | 329.2 | 14 | 176.2 | 59 | 505.3 | 16 |
| Ohio State | 46.8 | 6 | 212.2 | 78 | 280.7 | 11 | 492.8 | 19 |
Here is the breakdown:
Average points scored: 41.9
Average points allowed: 17.6
It's immediately clear that with Oregon and Baylor in the mix that the Select 16 have no problems scoring and are out-scoring the SEC by 8.3 points a game. And how about that defense?? Led by Louisville and Florida State the Select 16 are holding opponents to 6.4 points less a game than the SEC defenses. Does that mean that the SEC is slipping? Are they really not as good as the rest of the country? Lets dig a little deeper and see how those averages stand up when we ONLY look at Top 25 opponents against these Top 25 opponents. First here's just the SEC (teams are ranked by win/loss against the Top 25):
| Pts Scored Ty | Pts Allowed Ty | SEC Pts Scored | SEC Pts Allowed | Top 25 Pts Scored | Top 25 Pts Allowed | Top 25 Record | |
| Alabama | 38.8 | 11.3 | 40.7 | 16.3 | 35 | 10 | 1-0 |
| LSU | 41.4 | 22 | 38 | 24.3 | 37 | 27 | 1-0 |
| Ole Miss | 29 | 27.8 | 24.8 | 32.8 | 44 | 23 | 1-0 |
| Florida | 21.8 | 13 | 22.75 | 12.75 | 16 | 21 | 0-1 |
| Miss. State | 30.5 | 23 | 23 | 41.5 | 3 | 21 | 0-1 |
| Tennessee | 31.7 | 28 | 24 | 32.5 | 14 | 59 | 0-1 |
| Kentucky | 20.3 | 29.3 | 14 | 35.7 | 13 | 27 | 0-1 |
| Georgia | 37.5 | 33.7 | 36.25 | 35.75 | 35 | 38 | 0-1 |
| Arkansas | 23.3 | 27.6 | 16.7 | 42.3 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Texas A&M | 47.8 | 32 | 42.7 | 40 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Missouri | 45.7 | 23 | 46 | 27 | 0 | 0 | - |
| South Carolina | 34.5 | 22.7 | 38 | 25.3 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Auburn | 34.3 | 18.8 | 25 | 25.7 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Vanderbilt | 33.7 | 26.5 | 29.3 | 41.7 | 0 | 0 | - |
Now, technically the SEC has played 35 games with Top 25 opponents, BUT 29 of those games were SEC on SEC I felt including all those games again would be redundant so for the sake of this segment I reduced the SEC Top 25 opponents to those OUTSIDE of conference.
The first thing that pops out is that the SEC East struggles against Top 25 outside of conference. Could be a BCS factor later on.
The second thing that pops out is the difference in the averages.
Average points scored by SEC against Top 25: 24.6
Average points allowed by SEC against Top 25: 28.3
That's a 9 point difference between the yearly SEC scoring average and the average against non-conference Top 25. And a 4.3 point difference on points allowed, going in the wrong direction.
But when compared to conference play:
Average points scored by SEC teams in conference: 30.1
Average points allowed by SEC teams in conference: 31
We see that the SEC defenses are holding stronger outside of conference and are scoring between the yearly average and the non-conference Top 25 average.
Here's the Select 16:
| Pts Scored Ty | Pts Allowed Ty | Top 25 Pts Scored | Top 25 Pts Allowed | Top 25 Record | |
| Ohio State | 46.8 | ||||
| Stanford | 36.2 | ||||
| Oregon | 56.8 | ||||
| UCLA | 45.8 | ||||
| Texas Tech | 41.8 | ||||
| Clemson | 40.8 | ||||
| Miami | 45.2 | ||||
| Oklahoma | 29.3 | ||||
| Oklahoma St | 38 | 20 | 0 | 0 | - |
Here's the breakdown:
Average points scored against Top 25: 29.4
Average points allowed against Top 25: 25
What a difference an opponent makes! That's a 12.5 point drop off on the points scored average and a 7.4 point jump in the points allowed average. The SEC differences were only 9 in points scored, and 4.3 in points allowed. So yes, when the competition gets tougher, the stats are not as good, it's universal, but the drop off in the stats favors the SEC big time over our Select 16.
Now there are 2 arguments that can be made against the SEC here.
1. They are scoring 4.8 points less against Top 25 opponents than our Select 16 and they are giving up 3.3 points more. So is the SEC really playing better against quality opponents?
2. The Select 16 has a 13 win 5 loss record against Top 25 opponents while the SEC is merely 3-5...Isn't the SEC supposed to be dominating outside of conference?
I am taking the side that there is nothing wrong in the world of SEC defense on this and my rebuttal to both of these arguments is this: Tennessee played Oregon, Mississippi State played Oklahoma State, and Kentucky played Louisville. Take those 3 games out and the SEC is 3-2 with a legit loss by Florida and the last one being Georgia falling to Clemson which could have went either way. And the Select 16 are helped by the fact that the hardest Top 25 opponents Ohio State played and beat are Wisconsin and Northwestern, and Oklahoma played and beat TCU and Notre Dame whom are no longer ranked.
Now I am not saying that all is well in the SEC either because when you break down Top 50 offenses and defenses in scoring and total yards by conference this is what you get:
Scoring D: 8 B10 team are in the top 50
7 SEC and 7 ACC teams each in the Top 50
6 B12 and 6 Pac12 teams each
4 AAC
Total D: 9 ACC teams in the top 50
7 Pac12 teams
6 SEC and 6 B10
5 B12
4 AAC
Scoring offense: 8 in the SEC, 8 B10, 8 Pac 12
5 AAC
4 B12 and 4 ACC
Total offense: 8 SEC teams in the top 50
7 Pac12
5 B10 and 5 ACC
4 B12
3 AAC
What this shows is there is definitely some offense being played in the SEC this year as half the conference is Top 50 in points and in yards. This obviously has led to fewer Top 50 SEC teams in total defense and in points allowed. However, the B10 can boast 8 teams in scoring offense and 8 teams in scoring defense. The Pac12 is looking good with 7 Top 50 yardage teams, 8 high scoring teams and still having good yardage defenses. But if you really want to know what happened to defense in the SEC, some of it may have moved to the ACC. 9 teams are in the Top 50 in total defense and they are tied with the SEC in Top 50 teams in scoring defense. Virginia Tech and Florida State lead the charge, but Miami and Clemson aren't too shabby. But the offenses aren't as good in the ACC from top to bottom as they are in the SEC. (Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech, and UNC I'm looking at you.)
The bottom line for me is this: The SEC continues to beat up on itself because the teams are of a higher caliber which makes the numbers look somewhat worse than say an Ohio State team that hasn't played anybody all year. (That's how you have so many teams ranked in scoring and points allowed, the B10 is one big puff piece.) The offenses have gotten better in the SEC and it is a conference with a fairly large gap between the Good teams and the Bad Teams (looking at you Tennessee and Kentucky). We are quick to judge teams and conferences through-out the season and the knee-jerk reaction to the SEC this year is that the defenses are suffering. I don't see it. I see a highly competitive conference with highly competitive teams that know how to play. The offenses are starting to catch up and the in-conference play is the best in the country. By the end of the season I wouldn't be surprised if I had another 4 part special on "Whatever Happened to All Those Teams That Were Going to Challenge the SEC for the National Championship?"
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