Be sure to check out my profiles on Miami/UNC and UCF/Louisville which I published this morning in the blog titled: Games To Watch Thur/Fri Edition
#Georgia(16)@Vanderbilt
Team with the most to lose: Georgia - I would like to start this off with a few quotes:
"As I stand on the precipice of death." - Dewey Cox
"Look around you Helen, we're at the threshold of hell!" - Clark Griswold
I think these pretty much sum up where Georgia's season stands. One more loss and it's all over.
Team with the most to gain: Vanderbilt - They haven't quite lived up to the hype I gave them in the pre-season, but they can start their way to salvation with a win over the Bulldogs. Vanderbilt won't quit, they have an offense that can score against Georgia and the game is in Nashville. Vandy has had 2 weeks to prepare for this as well. Georgia has the talent to win, hell they had the talent to win last week....
BCS Impact: HIGH whenever 2 SEC teams play
Prediction: Vanderbilt smells blood in the water
#Texas Tech(15)@West Virginia
Team with the most to win/lose: Texas Tech - Next week they travel to Norman to play the Sooners. They can't let WV catch them in a trap this week. WV upset Oklahoma State but Texas Tech is a better team. The Red Raiders defense and offense are some of the best in the country, (not counting the defensive performance against Iowa State). Texas Tech could put themselves into the BCS debate if they run the table and win the conference. Probably not a serious threat for a national championship but they can definitely get a premium BCS bowl birth.
BCS Impact: Medium
Prediction: Texas Tech
#South Carolina(9)@Tennessee
Team with the most win/lose: South Carolina - They are on the second game in a stretch of three straight road games. The Gamecocks blew out Arkansas, now travel to Tennessee, and then have to travel to Missouri. This is the game they will lose if they lose one. The Gamecocks may be spent after last week and looking ahead to the un-defeated Tigers. I personally think they figured something out about themselves last week and will remember what Tennessee did to Georgia. The Gamecocks are healthier than Georgia with a defense that's improving and an offense that has been consistent on big yardage all year.
BCS Impact; High
Prediction: South Carolina
#TCU@Oklahoma State(17)
Team with the most to lose: Oklahoma State - They already have one loss in conference and are chasing Texas, Texas Tech, and Baylor. All of whom will probably still be un-defeated after this Saturday. Texas on the bye week has me the most worried. Oklahoma State still has chances if they lose because they will still have to play the three teams ahead of them, but if they are 2-3 games back in the standings it could be too little too late.
Team with the most to gain: TCU - They almost beat Oklahoma and exposed Blake Bell. Can they do the same again? They are trying to get relevant again in the wide open B12 and a win here will start that trend, add a win against Texas next week and the Frogs are looking good. The loss to Texas Tech could end up being huge though. They already have 2 losses and the Frogs have yet to play Baylor so the chances of making it to the top are already slim, but they are gone with a loss here. I can see them causing the OK State offense problems, but I don't think the TCU offense will be able to score enough.
BCS Impact: Low to Medium
Prediction: Oklahoma State
#Florida(22)@Missouri(14)
Team with the most to lose: Florida gets the nod because Missouri had nothing to lose before the season started. Florida was supposed to be a national title contender and now there's no certainty they can beat Missouri. Florida's offense is terrible. They average 21.8 points a game, they looked the worse I have seen them against LSU, but Missouri doesn't have an LSU defense...or even a Razorback defense. Florida likes to run the ball and control the clock but they only average 3.9 yards rush. Mack Brown is only averaging 3.7...It's far from being dominate. Missouri's run defense is 25th nationally. Florida, like Georgia is on the edge of oblivion. And oblivion is in Columbia Missouri this weekend.
Team with the most to gain: Missouri - SEC East champs?? What the hell is going on here??!?! It's all about this week and next week. Florida now, South Carolina then. Then they could lose a dumb one to Tennessee and it wouldn't even matter as long as they won out. Then they get to the SEC Championship game....simply amazing what could happen here. A loss here doesn't kill them, but it brings them into the mess with South Carolina and Florida all with one loss each. Don't make problems for yourself Missouri. Now, the loss of their quarterback Franklin is HUGE and will impact the rest of the year. Do they have enough to win without their leader? What will happen with the passing game? The passing game was 33rd nationally at 276 a game, BUT MISSOURI RUNS THE BALL - 16th in the country at 239 yards a game. Have you seen the tape of Florida's run defense against Arkansas and LSU? But if Florida can get a lead and force Missouri to pass, Hargreaves and Purifoy will eat the Tigers up.
BCS impact: HIGH
Prediction: Missouri
#Auburn@Texas A&M(7)
Team with the most to lose: Texas A&M - What happens when the 104th ranked run defense (A&M) goes up against the 7th best running offense (Auburn)? THAT"S WHAT WE ARE ABOUT TO FIND OUT!!! The Aggies are in the thick of the SEC West race with a loss against Bama, a game to come against LSU, and an identical record in conference as the Auburn Tigers. A loss here would be close to devastating. A two loss East team could probably get to the SEC title game, but not a 2 loss West team.
Team with the most to gain: Auburn and everyone that has played them. A win will get them ranked right before the first BCS and give all their SEC opponents a nice bump in the computers. And the only thing better than the running game for Auburn is their defense. They are 21st in points allowed, 50th in rushing allowed and 67th in total yards allowed against teams such as Washington State, LSU, and Ole Miss. However the A&M D should feel good about.....I really don't know, they gave up 21 points in the fourth quarter last week....I guess....they can feel good about....Auburn doesn't throw the ball near as well as Ole Miss?
BCS Impact: HIGH
Prediction: A&M
#UCLA(10)@Stanford(13)
Team with the most to lose: Stanford - I told all of you that the Utah game was going to be a trap for the Cardinal. I just told you the wrong team was going to win, as ONE of you faithful readers point out to me EVERY. SINGLE. DAY. Thanks. Well the fun never ends here and it doesn't end for the Cardinal. Luckily they get the Bruins at home. Stanford needs this win in the worst way. They lost the one game in this stretch of games that they could not lose if they wanted to play for a national championship. That puts them in must wins against UCLA, Oregon State next week and Oregon the week after that. Granted the two Oregon teams are Stanford's side of the conference but if they go into those games with 2 losses in conference already it probably won't matter.
Team with the most to gain: UCLA - A win here and they are in the first BCS Top 10 hands down and are serious contenders for a national championship. That may only last a week since they have Oregon next week but I expect UCLA to be in the Pac12 championship game and if they win, why couldn't they be the #2 team in the country? UCLA has a Top 10 offense and a Top 30 defense, but the last team that played Stanford with those kind of stats was Washington. I don't see the same lack of discipline or mental lapses out of UCLA that I see in Washington. And lets be honest, special teams was a deciding factor in the Washington/Stanford game as well, so UCLA needs to be sound in all three areas. The real question is: Does Stanford really lose two straight games?
BCS Impact: HIGH
Prediction: All stats and emotions and BCS crap aside, this is a really close game between two of the best out of the Pac12 and when you strip this game down I have no choice but to pick the team that I think is the better overall team: UCLA
#Washington(25)@Arizona State
Team with the most to lose: Washington and all the teams they play - They are coming off of two straight heart breakers, so what is their mental state on the road? They are probably out of the discussion as far as the Pac12 race goes but they are still trying to salvage a winning record and a decent bowl game.
Team with the most to gain: Arizona State - They have been talking about signature wins all year, how would a win against Washington rank on that list? Yea...pretty big. Also big is the BCS mayhem an Arizona State win could cause in the Pac12. Washington is a quality opponent right now and that idea could take a hit with a loss here. Arizona should be expected to lose this one and with losses against Notre Dame and Stanford it would seem like a pretty safe bet.
BCS impact: HIGH
Prediction: Washington
#LSU(8)@Ole Miss
Team with the most to lose: LSU - They are the BCS team in the best position to make it to #1 right now. Unless they lose to Ole Miss. The Rebels standing as a quality opponent is in jeopardy after 3 straight losses. They are a talented team, but who would have thought they could be on the verge of 4 straight losses? Anyone who looked at their schedule that is, but who knew Auburn was going to have a rebound? LSU could be on an emotional let down after the Florida win, but I didn't see a lot of emotion on the field last week for the Tigers; I saw a determined, focused team who was very businesslike in their approach. They don't have much of an opponent next week so they should be fired up this week. We will find out if that LSU pass defense has fixed their issues against the Rebels as well.
Team with the most to gain: LSU - The BCS season is over for the Rebels and the Tigers are smelling a national championship run. The Tiger coaches are ready, but can they get all those young kids on defense ready? They didn't look ready against Georgia in their biggest game of the year. Well, the games don't get no smaller from here on out: Ole Miss, Furman, BYE WEEK, ALABAMA (for the national championship), TEXAS A&M.
BCS impact; HIGH
Prediction: LSU
#Washington State@Oregon(2)
Team with the most to lose: Oregon - They have the conference and the country by the throat right now and a loss to the un-ranked Cougars would loosen that grip quite a bit, and if UCLA were to win....hmmmm.....intrigue abounds. But Oregon would still have the upper hand on their side of the conference and a win against Stanford AND UCLA would cure all ills. Speaking of UCLA...does Oregon fall into the Cougar trap? Last week an emotional win against Washington, this week is Washington State, next week UCLA...What the Duck is Oregon made of mentally? We will soon find out.
Team with the most to gain: Oregon gets the nod because Washington State has nothing to gain by winning this game except a building block for next year. The Cougars are 4-3 and are having a nice season. But if you look at those 3 losses: 394 yards given up to Auburn, 560 yards given up to Stanford, and 598 yards given up to Oregon State. The Cougars give up an average of 400 yards a game on the year. Also in the 3 losses Washington State scored 24 against Auburn, 17 against Stanford, and 24 against Oregon State. They average 30 points a game on the year. Oregon has better offensive and defensive units that all the teams Washington State has lost to.
BCS impact: Medium to High
Prediction: Oregon
#Florida State(5)@Clemson(4) - GAME OF THE WEEK
This is the game I will have the complete beak-down of on Saturday night!! I can't wait, this one is going to be awesome!!!
Team with the most to gain/lose: Florida State/Clemson - The teams remaining on FSU's schedule after Clemson are: NC State, Miami, Wake Forest, Syracuse, Idaho, Florida. If the Seminoles don't get it here, where do they get a quality win? Miami is losing to UNC at the time of this writing and who knows where Florida will be by the end of the year or the SEC East as a whole. This makes this a must win game for FSU. This game may determine who plays for a national championship if anyone out of the ACC. However, I GUARANTEE that this game will determine who WILL NOT represent the ACC in a national championship game. Florida State is a juggernaut in both points allowed (3rd), points scored (3rd), yards allowed (7th), and yards gained (4th), and I have been quick to put them at the top of my own power rankings, however, a legitimate question can be asked: Who have they played? The played well on the road against Pitt, they came from behind on the road against BC, and they trounced Maryland. That's all they got.
Clemson's schedule is not much better, they have beat the now suffering Georgia Bulldogs, and they struggled against BC and NC State. After FSU, there is no one but South Carolina left on the schedule. Once again, where are the quality wins coming from? Who-ever wins this game MUST go on to win the ACC Championship and hope Oregon loses a game and that the SEC continues to eat itself alive. But the loser doesn't have a shot. Clemson isn't too shabby this year either at 13th in total yards gained, 21st in yards allowed, and 17th in points scored and 10th in points allowed. A deeper look at the points allowed shows this trend: Georgia 37.5 pt average on the year, scored 35 against Clemson
SCarolina St: 32 pt average on the year, scored 13 against Clemson
NC State: 24.7 pt average, scored 14 against Clemson
Wake Forest: 20 pt average, scored 7 against Clemson
Syracuse: 31.3 pt average, scored 14 against Clemson
Boston College: 25.2 pt average, scored 14 against Clemson
That Clemson D is a lot better than we thought they would be.
Florida State scores more than ANY of the above opponents though. This game is going to be a defensive struggle and the offensive drives will come in spurts with nothing consistent. Clemson has play makers all over the field. Florida State has a freshman quarterback going into Death Valley, but he has determination and heart. I am worried about Boyd's heart if things go wrong early. Florida State has had 2 weeks to prepare...so has Clemson after they took the week off against Boston College. Both of these teams have a bad habit of losing a game they shouldn't lose in the course of a season. I have been dreading picking this game since the first week of the year.
BCS Impact: HIGH
Prediction: CLEMSON
has turned the ball over 6 times this year, Florida State only 3
FLORIDA STATE
has forced 7 turnovers for a +4 margin
CLEMSON
has forced 15 turnovers for a +9 margin
FLORIDA STATE
has allowed 9 sacks this year and has gotten 10
CLEMSON
has allowed 13 sacks and has gotten 24....
CLEMSON
is the pick
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