Good Enough for Second

Alabama played just good enough to lose and were the epitome of that cliche.

Penalties at the wrong time, missed field goals, an offensive line that couldn't keep the Auburn pass rush out of the backfield and couldn't block Auburn off the ball in short yardage situations, dropped passes, and a defense that blew the most coverages I have seen since LSU/Georgia. Those are the reasons the Tide lost to Auburn.

I am not going to get into whether Auburn deserved to win this game or not, whether they got lucky, etc etc...They played a cleaner game, they did not back down when things could have went bad, and they put themselves in a position to "get lucky".

If you listened to the commentators on CBS they would tell you Alabama came out tight. And if you saw the first drive from Alabama I think you would have to dis-agree. Now the field goal kicker might have been tight, and the punt unit might have been tight, but I think Alabama as a whole was fine. Marv Levy once said many many years ago, "Offenses sell tickets, defenses win games, and special teams win championships." That's another saying that Alabama embodied tonight. 4 missed field goals, failure to cover a field goal return, and a punt almost blocked that led to Auburn's first touchdown.

I also want to say that I fully agree with the calls Saban made in the game today. When it was 4th and 1 around the Auburn 20, under 7 minutes to go the call was made to go for it. Alabama ran it and was stuffed. This was a statement play. Alabama runs on third or fourth and short and history says they get it. This is who Alabama is and Auburn stepped up and said, "I don't care." This was not the first time in the game either. Every time Alabama tried to make that Alabama statement play with the run, Auburn won the line of scrimmage. The second call was the long field goal try. It was a gutsy call and it was a couple yards short of winning the game. No problem with that call at all.

Now what about Auburn. I want to talk about the Auburn defense first. They were up to the challenge when it mattered most all night long. I counted at least 8 times that Auburn rushed 4 or fewer and got pressure on McCarron. Alabama could not handle the defensive ends from Auburn at all. The speed of the edge consistently pushed McCarron forward to where the tackles were in his face. This caused McCarron to be slightly off early in the game. Auburn gave up yards on the ground tonight, but held on the short yardage plays that mattered, and their blitzes were either not picked up or caused more pressure. Great defensive effort (aside from Mincy getting beat for 99 by Cooper) and they never quit. And they also knew EVERYTIME Alabama was going to run a screen play and shut it down.

I finally understand what makes the Auburn offense special. They run 3 different plays but can run them a variety of ways and you cannot tell what is coming. Even when you see it coming it's hard to defend. On the first drive it was pound Mason up the middle while faking Marshall to the outside. Then the first play of the second drive, play action to Mason while Marshall kept it. I knew it was coming, Alabama had to know it was coming, it didn't matter. But when that Auburn offense starts running, you just can't keep up. On the first drive of the second half it was literally Right, Left, Middle, Left, Right, Middle, Swing pass, Right, Left Middle and Alabama had no answers, they were completely off-balance. It also doesn't hurt that Auburn has a running back like Mason. Marshall has exceptional speed and can explode to the corner like only few can, but Mason would not be denied. He broke tackles, pushed the pile, and brutalized that Bama D all night. The worst part of Auburn's offense is they would go to the well and run the same play too much on one drive and Alabama would have it sniffed out.

And as bad as the special teams were for Alabama, they were that great for Auburn. Auburn blocked a punt, blocked a field goal, had 2 punts to the 1 yard line and returned a missed field goal 200 yards for the game winning score. Hats off to Auburn and I would have no problem putting them at #1 although I doubt it happens.

I was ready to criticize the replay official for over-turning the Cooper touchdown run and the Marshall TD run. How do you over-turn those calls? I thought the evidence had to inconclusive...could have been a bigger deal but both teams scored anyways. But, on the Marshall touchdown pass to Coates that tied the game...HOW IS THAT NOT REVIEWED?!?!?! Can we truly say Marshall was behind the line of scrimmage when he threw that ball?? It was awfully damn close and NO ONE is talking about it....

Here are some stats:
McCarron was 17 for 29 but his receivers dropped 6 passes.

Alabama had 6 penalties for 45 yards. But the timing was ridiculous. A holding penalty negated a first down run on 3rd and 2 with 4 minutes to go. If that drive stays alive there's a chance Alabama scores another touchdown and seals the game. The holding penalty ensured they would try a field goal...the one that was blocked. And lets not forget the "false start" that negated another field goal earlier in the game.

Auburn ran for 296 yards against Alabama. Mason ran for 164.

Auburn was more physical on third down and converted 8 out of 15 while holding Bama to 4 out of 13. This included a 3rd and 1 on the 9th Auburn drive where the Tiger o-line completely blew the Bama d-line off the ball and Mason picked up the first. The drive ended in 0 points, but I thought that play was a great example of the heart that Auburn brought to this game.

Bottom line: Alabama has played with fire all year and has found ways to win. They have looked dominant but have had UNTYPICAL moments all year that just did not make much sense. The penalties, the defensive lapses, the lack of focus and it finally caught up with them today.

Bottom line 2: Auburn has grown a lot since they lost to LSU. They have perfected their plays, they are focused and are not making dumb mistakes. And it seems that whenever Auburn comes out of no-where in a season they have to shock the world. Tonight was no different.

Check this out: Alabama lost to Auburn who lost to LSU who lost to Georgia who lost to Missouri who lost to South Carolina who lost to Tennessee who lost to Alabama. Just another year in the SEC.

Or how about: Georgia beat South Carolina who beat Missouri who beat Georgia who beat LSU who beat Auburn who beat Alabama who beat A&M who beat Ole Miss who beat LSU who beat A&M who beat Vanderbilt who beat Florida who beat Tennessee who beat South Carolina who beat Vanderbilt who beat Georgia

Rest of the Games that Mattered

Oregon found a way late against Oregon State. The force has not been with the Beavers all year.

Texas A&M has another poor offensive scoring day and Missouri has a date with the Tigers of Auburn for the SEC Championship. If Missouri is SEC Champ, there will NOT be a SEC team playing for the National Championship without some help. I think Auburn could get in as the 1 loss SEC rep. but I am not completely confident in that either. What a year. These coaches will not get their lips off of Ohio State's Buck and see the big picture.

Ohio State hangs on at the end. Shit.

South Carolina punishes Clemson and proves they are one of the best teams in the country despite their record. Damn you Tennessee for screwing this up!!!!

Florida proves they were more over-rated than Ohio State. FSU rolls easily.

So where does that put my picks? 5 wins, 3 losses. Season record: 58-28, 67%

So where does that put the BCS?

Espn says:
1. FSU
2. Ohio State
3. Auburn
4. Alabama
5. Missouri

I say:

There are 3 SEC teams in the TOP 5!!! There are 4 in the Top 10!!! And Ohio State is going to be considered a top tier team? Who have they played? Boise State has had a better case some years!!! This is ridiculous people. How many teams are currently ranked from the B10? 3. There are 3 SEC in the Top 5....And yes an argument can be made that FSU hasn't played anyone either, the ACC isn't exactly the toughest conference. But the teams they have beat that mattered, mattered more than Ohio State's, ie Clemson at Clemson. And Florida State has been more dominant against lesser opponents than Ohio State. Give me Winston over Miller any day.

I will be back tomorrow to talk about the new BCS and then unveil my new (ie: THE REAL) top 4 rankings after I plug all the new numbers into the spreadsheet. I will also unveil a new name for my 3 Point Process, 3PP just don't get it.

It's been a great regular season!!!!

GAMECOCK Day Edition of Games to Watch

Happy Thanksgiving to ONE AND ALL!!! Here is a little college football appetizer of the last weekend of the regular season!!! Don't tell me it's almost over.....at least I have leftover ham, turkey, corn bread, lemon bars, and home-made pie to keep me company. So for one last time in the regular season, here are the games that are worth watching.

Friday
Oregon State@(13)Oregon

Why it matters: It probably matters more to Stanford who wins this game. Stanford is trying to get in position for an outside shot at a national championship. Probably not going to happen because of all the dominoes that need to fall ie: Ohio State loses to Michigan and Michigan State among others. But a win by Oregon keeps Stanford's strength of schedule going strong.

Prediction: Oregon won't lose 2 straight, and can we see Oregon and Texas A&M in a bowl game? That is my Thanksgiving wish....

Saturday
(1)Alabama@(4)Auburn - GAME OF THE WEEK

Why it matters: What can I tell you that you already don't know? Winner of this game plays for the SEC Championship and the winner of THAT game plays for a National Championship

Prediction: Alabama has come too far to break now

(2)Florida State@Florida

Why it matters: Florida State cannot lose now....the Buckeyes are hot on their heels for the #2 spot and a lose to Florida will shatter the Seminoles chances like Georgia Southern shattered Muschamp's career last week.

Prediction: Florida State

(3)Ohio State@Michigan

Why it matters: Other than the fact that it is Ohio State and Michigan? Ohio State's dreams of national glory ride off on the back of a wolverine with a loss here.

Prediction: Ohio State

(21)Texas A&M@(5)Missouri

Why it matters: Missouri is the dark horse galloping hard towards a possible national championship game. They have a ranked opponent this week and another in the SEC Championship game. By my calculations if Missouri won both of those games it would raise their 3PP Ranking to: 15.79, up from a 14.10, which would put them into the Top 4 on my chart. Would this be enough in the BCS world? I would like to think so, but this could go either way. It would depend on how well Missouri impressed the coaches. But Texas A&M, under the shadow of Manziel leaving or staying could have a chip on their shoulder. They lost a bad one to the Tigers and I just don't see that offense getting stopped 2 weeks in a row. And the Tigers pass defense is suspect. A lot of points in this one.

Prediction: Texas A&M

(6)Clemson@(10)South Carolina - Game of the week runner up

Why It Matters: If Missouri loses and the Gamecocks win, the Gamecocks go to the SEC Championship game. Now on the national stage, can South Carolina challenge for a spot in the BCS Championship? My 3PP, if South Carolina beats Clemson and wins the SEC Championship game (if Missouri loses), is 18.10 which would make them #1: that strength of schedule would be ridiculous and the Gamecocks would be boasting multiple wins over Top 10 opponents. The question is, how much would the Coaches care? Probably not enough which would be a travesty. A 2 loss South Carolina team as an SEC Champ would have as much right to play for a national championship as anybody. But about the game at hand: Clemson got hammered at home against FSU but beat Georgia. South Carolina hasn't been as consistent as FSU and they got beat by Georgia...but I expect South Carolina to be loaded with emotion and Boyd not to be able to respond on the road to early adversity.

Prediction: South Carolina

(25)Notre Dame@(8)Stanford

Why It Matters: We have a Notre Dame team looking to get into a decent bowl and a Stanford team that is still trying to bolster their resume AND praying for absolute chaos in the BCS Top 10 the next 2 weeks. A loss against the Irish and they can stop praying.

Prediction: Stanford

(22)UCLA@(23)USC

Why it matters: Because it will be damn entertaining that's why. And somewhere in the depths of strength of schedule rankings this matters to Stanford and Arizona State.

Prediction: USC is riding high, UCLA has gone flat, give me the Trojans

I'll be back on Saturday with the break-down of the Saturday action and the break-down of Bama/Auburn.

Predictions last week: 8-5
Predictions all time: 53-25, 68%

Stanford and Arizona State FULL STEAM AHEAD!!

What a weekend, with so much change and high ranking teams going down, it is going to be a true test for my 3 Point Process straight out of the gate. So lets get right to it.

First of all, the Conference Performance Numbers went through a change. This will be variable that will be the hardest to predict all year.

	Record	Rank	L in Conf	Rank	v. Top 25	Rank	Overall	Rank
B10	79-53, 60%	1	42, 79%	0.2	4-30, 12%	0.4	1.6	4
B12	61-47, 56%	0.6	39, 83%	0.6	4-20, 17%	0.6	1.8	3
ACC	91-63, 59%	0.8	51, 81%	0.4	3-24, 11%	0.2	1.4	5
Pac12	79-55, 59%	0.8	49, 89%	1	11-33, 25%	1	2.8	1
SEC	85-59, 59%	0.8	51, 86%	0.8	11-37, 23%	0.8	2.4	2

What we have here is that the Pac12 has moved firmly into #1 with a .2 increase and the Sec went to #2 with a .2 decrease. The sliding scale for conference losses won't change, but will the lack or gain of .2 in the conference impact teams a great deal? Also, the B10 moved ahead of the ACC in the rankings. Good job B10.

Here are the teams:

	Ranked All Year	Ranked @Time	Top 10 @Time	Ranked Losses	Eye Test	Overall Losses	Conf. Performance	Conf Champ	Conf Losses
Florida State	2	2	2	0	GREAT	0	5th	F	0
Missouri	4	4	1	1	GOOD	1	2nd	UF	1
South Carolina	4	2	2	1	FAIR	2	2nd	UF	2
Ohio State	2	2	0	0	VERY GOOD	0	4th	F	0
Oklahoma State	4	3	1	0	GOOD	1	3rd	F	1
Clemson	2	2	2	1	GOOD	1	5th	UF	1
Alabama	4	3	1	0	VERY GOOD	0	2nd	F	0
Oregon	3	3	1	1	GOOD	2	1st	UF	2
Baylor	3	2	2	1	GOOD	1	3rd	UF	1
Stanford	6	4	2	1	OK	2	1st	F	2
Auburn	4	4	2	1	GOOD	1	2nd	UF	1
Arizona State	7	4	1	2	GOOD	2	1st	UF	1

If you look closely you will see I upgraded the Cowboys from a "FAIR" eye test to a "GOOD." They have been on a roll and they dominated Baylor from the opening kick. Stanford has also changed from an UnFavored as conference champ to a Favored while Oregon lost their favored status.

Arizona State has also made the list with a good win against UCLA. I mean, they are going to the Pac12 Championship game, I HAD to put them on the list. So here is the same chart with the point values:

	Ranked All Year	Ranked @Time	Top 10 @Time	Ranked Losses	Eye Test	Overall Losses	Conf. Performance	Conf Champ	Conf Losses
Florida State	1	0.75	1.5	1	1.25	1	1.4	1	1
Missouri	1.5	1.25	1	0.5	0.75	0.5	2.4	0	1
South Carolina	1.5	0.75	1.5	0.5	0.5	0	2.4	0	0.75
Ohio State	1	0.75	0.5	1	1	1	1.6	1	1
Oklahoma State	1.5	1	1	1	0.75	0.5	1.8	1	0.75
Clemson	1	0.75	1.5	0.5	0.75	0.5	1.4	0	0.5
Alabama	1.5	1	1	1	1	1	2.4	1	1.5
Oregon	1.25	1	1	0.5	0.75	0	2.8	0	0.75
Baylor	1.25	0.75	1.5	0.5	.75	0.5	1.8	0	0.75
Stanford	2	1.25	1.5	0.5	0.25	0	2.8	1	0.75
Auburn	1.5	1.25	1.5	0.5	0.75	0.5	2.4	0	1
Arizona State	2.25	1.25	1	0	0.75	0	2.8	0	1

What do all of these changes mean? Will an SEC slide hurt the idle Tigers and put Oklahoma State into the top 4? Here we go:

1	Alabama	17.73
2	Stanford	16.33
3	FSU	15.35
4	Auburn	14.98
5	Oklahoma St.	14.76
6	Arizona State	14.52
7	Missouri	14.10
8	Ohio State	13.59
9	Oregon	12.83
10	South Carolina	12.79
11	Baylor	12.39
12	Clemson	10.98

What a difference a weekend makes. We have STANFORD jump all the way up to #2 from #5 while Oklahoma State did not have quite enough to get into the top 4, if they keep winning they will get there though. Ohio State also moves up as Baylor and Oregon take huge tumbles. 

Looking ahead though we have a South Carolina@Clemson match-up coming up that could prove huge for the Gamecocks. And Oklahoma State still has Oklahoma on the schedule. And in case we forget: Alabama@Auburn. There are shake-ups ahead.

Now if we look at the current BCS they have:

1. Alabama

2. FSU

3. Ohio State

4. Auburn

5. Missouri

6. Clemson

7. Oklahoma State

8. Stanford

9. Baylor

10. South Carolina

11. Michigan State

12. Arizona State

13. Oregon

At first glance it seems apparent that the "Eye Test" from the Coaches Poll certainly carries more weight than the strength of schedule or strength of conference. How else do you have such disparities between my poll and the BCS poll when looking at Oklahoma State, Stanford, Arizona State, Clemson, and Ohio State? Which is why we end up with SEC teams steam-rolling over their opponents in the National Championship game. I want to be clear, I have no problem with FSU playing Bama this year, but I worry we get another Bama/Notre Dame game. Tell me Stanford doesn't give Alabama a better game after what they have been through this year. And Auburn has not looked as good as a lot of teams on my list, but they have played a TOUGH schedule and they win games. That's what it should be about. Ohio State has played a poor schedule and they won games....Florida State played a slightly tougher schedule and they are winning games. Stanford has played the toughest schedule in the toughest conference and they have 2 losses....All of these things are related and we need to start grading teams as such. I stand by my 3 Point Process this week and look forward to keeping track of the "REAL" best teams in the country.

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I will be back Wednesday with this weekend's preview piece!! Thanks for reading!