Monday, March 31, 2014

Unionization Part I

There are some pretty big changes starting to brew in College Football, unionization being at the top of the list. Well even here at Simply College Football, change is in the air. This will be the last post on this blog site. Don't worry!! I am not shutting down, I am simply moving operations and bringing in a couple of my friends to help out. 

The blog is moving to: www.armchaircollegefootball.wordpress.com and we are also on Facebook under Armchair College Football. 

I would also like to introduce my two contributors: Jules and Aaron. I have bios of them posted on the new site and they will be a huge part of what Armchair College Football is going forward. I am super excited for this next step in the blog and I think this next year is going to be amazing with more insight and opinion that any one site should have.

So in order to celebrate the passing of this blog into the next we have a multiple part series on the Unionization issue that has come to the forefront. To kick it off with Part I the remainder of this blog will be turned over to Jules and her opinion on the matter. I will be back on Wednesday with Part II, which will be posted on the new site!! Hope to see you there!!!

UNIONIZATION Part I - by Jules

To unionize or not to unionize, that is the question.  College football has been around for decades, why is unionizing now an issue? The NCAA has transformed college football into nothing more than a billion dollar business built on the backs of ‘student athletes’ and they’ve finally had enough.
The Texas Longhorns, college football’s most valuable team, made $109 million dollars last year. The SEC took home $52 million from the 13-14 bowl season alone. The average bowl-eligible head coach now takes home $1.64 million a year. Millions of dollars of video games and copious amounts of merchandise are sold with players’ names and likenesses without their permission. All this money and the kids who actually work for it never see a dime.
Sure, you get a scholarship, but in the grand scheme of things, it can almost be considered chump change. A four year degree at a state school will set you back about $60,000, but at what cost? 40+ hours of football practice a week? Plus you have to find time to actually go to class and study so you can pass and actually be able to play the sport you’re bending over backwards for. Forget actually wanting to learn something, they’ll just stick you in one of their ‘paper classes’ and send you on your way.
Players are also required to sign scholarship ‘tenders’ that define conditions under which they will receive free tuition, room and board, and other support. If players fail to meet the conditions, they lose their scholarships.  How exactly can you hold someone under contract and not consider them an employee? Well, the tide is turning and thanks to the Chicago district of the National Labor Relations Board. They ruled on Wednesday that Northwestern football players qualify as employees of the university and can unionize.
I think it’s absurd we’ve gone so long treating these kids so poorly. We watch them play their hearts out on Saturdays, shell out premiums for tickets, jerseys, etc. and some of them go home hungry after the games. They have virtually no private lives. Everyone knows who they are and they live under a microscope. Take Johnny Manziel for example. The poor kid couldn’t have lasted another year in college even if he wanted to. His every move was on ESPN. He couldn’t go to class without being stopped or pointed at. It’s a real shame how these kids have had to live and I’m glad they’re finally getting their voices heard.

Sunday, March 30, 2014

NFL Draft, All Opinion, No Crap

For the past several weeks I have been racking my brain for a way to do a Mock Draft blog that did not sound like a carbon copy of everyone else's. I mean, EVERYONE is doing a Mock Draft, there is nothing new out there, and picking a draft is like picking a NCAA Tournament Bracket; it's damn near impossible. So why even try? Because it's fun, that's why. But I don't know much about the NFL. I write a college football blog, so while I feel like I have a great position on ranking players, I don't know what NFL teams are thinking! Then it came to me! Why not write a Mock Draft that would go exactly as how I THINK it should based on what I saw from players and from what the season ending stats in the NFL tell me? Forget all the other garbage that surrounds this circus! So that's what I did. I looked at the season ending stats for every NFL Team like passing yards, rushing yards, touchdowns, etc etc and I decided what they needed. Then I checked free agency to make sure the NFL team did not fill their need, then I ranked the college players all by myself. There are numerous player rankings out there that include their pro days, the combine, the senior bowl, etc and I threw all that crap out!! I don't care. I am looking at bodies of work that I have seen with my own eyes and what the stats say. So I feel in a bullcrap-less world where all the media hype (ie: there is no reason some kids are rated higher than others, body type is a cop-out, just compare Josh Huff and Odell Beckham Jr), storylines, NFL politics, and speculation have been stripped away, THIS is the draft we would end up with. And if that sounds cocky...sorry...

Here we go!!!

1. Houston Texans - Terry Bridgewater QB from Louisville, the best QB in the draft, period.

2. St. Louis Rams - Sammy Watkins WR from Clemson, the Rams need some help for Bradford and Watkins is the best WR in the draft, period.

3. Jacksonville Jaguars - Jake Matthews OT from Texas A&M, the Jags need A LOT of help EVERYWHERE, but they may have some pieces in place on the offensive side, so lets build from the ground up and take care of a deep defensive pool of players later in the draft

4. Cleveland Browns - Johnny Manziel QB from Texas A&M, the Browns NEED a QB, and who better to bring excitement back to Cleveland and give them a shot than Johnny Football.

5. Oakland Raiders - Mike Evans WR from Texas A&M, the Raiders cannot pass up the second best WR in the draft

6. Atlanta Falcons - Jadeveon Clowney DE from South Carolina, the Falcons need a defensive overall and you are not going to find a bigger freak to start building off of then Clowney, too much of an upside to pass up

7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Blake Bortles QB from UCF, Lovie Smith would probably want to go OL or defense with his first pick, but if Bortles falls this far, you cannot let one of the best pure pocket passers get away

8. Minnesota Vikings - Darqueze Dennard CB from Michigan St, the Vikings defense is in more of a mess than their offense, and when potentially an all star shut down corner falls into your lap, you have to take it

9. Buffalo Bills - Taylor Lewan OT from Michigan, EJ Manual - check, CJ Spiller - check, a great young defense - check, protection for Manual? CHECK

10. Detroit Lions - Jace Amaro TE from Texas Tech, the Lions have helped their D in free agency, will probably need more in the second round, but they need someone underneath to catch passes

11. Tennessee Titans - Marquise Lee WR from USC, when was the last time the Titans had an elite WR?

12. New York Giants - Xavier Su'a-Filo G from UCLA, the Giants have to feel last year was a fluke, they need DL help, but there will be some available later, get the elite G now for an inconsistent and aging line

13. St. Louis Rams - Hasean Clinton-Dix FS from Alabama, how many of you knew his real name was Hasean? Rams need secondary help and he can be a secondary general for years to come

14. Chicago Bears - Aaron Donald DT from Pittsburgh, the Bears run D was terrible last year and it's time to start rebuilding with one of the best defensive linemen in the draft

15. Pittsburgh Steelers - Greg Robinson OT from Auburn, I am not sold on the Steelers offensive line and I don't think they are either

16. Dallas Cowboys - Anthony Barr OLB from UCLA, the defense was God-awful and then they let DeMarcus Ware go, Barr is an instant fix

17. Baltimore Ravens - Eric Ebron TE from North Carolina, the defense was not as bad as it could have been, there will be players to draft here later, get Flacco some under-neath/safety valve help

18. New York Jets - Allen Robinson WR from Penn State, the perfect compliment to Decker and if Geno Smith or Vick can look down-field...the Jets might have an offense

19. Miami Dolphins - Brandin Cooks WR from Oregon State, this kid is an absolute monster, check the stats. Just what the Fins need in the passing game.

20. Arizona Cardinals - David Yankey G from Stanford, the Cards have to feel they are only a few pieces away from something special. The run game was a weakness and they really need a RB, but there are no RB's that deserve a first round pick, so lets go with a G from run heavy Stanford.

21. Green Bay Packers - Calvin Pryor FS from Louisville, the Packers front seven will be improved after injury recovery and free agency so they need to improve their defensive backfield.

22. Philadelphia Eagles - Justin Gilbert CB from Oklahoma State, even after letting DeSean Jackson go the Eagles feel they have their WR and could get a decent 3rd in the second round, a corner as good as Gilbert on a pass defense as bad as Philly's? It makes too much sense.

23. Kansas City Chiefs - Odell Beckham Jr WR from LSU, after letting McCluster get away, and already needing a WR, Beckham is a perfect match across from big Bowe

24. Cincinnati Bengals - CJ Mosley ILB from Alabama, the Bengals don't need much, but Mosley will bring a consistent, smart presence to that Bengal defense for years to come

25. San Diego Chargers - Trent Murphy DE from Stanford, all the "experts" have Murphy going in the second round. I don't get it. He's bigger than Dee Ford and he was more productive than Ford or Ealy.

26. Cleveland Browns - Chris Borland ILB from Wisconsin, another possible stretch for me. Kahil Mack is the darling right now and he is a beast, and he has some stats, but he played at Buffalo....can we talk level of competition? Borland could be the heart and soul of the interior of the Browns defense for years to come.

27. New Orleans Saints - Louis Nix III DT from Notre Dame, the Saints are pretty loaded right now, but a little extra up front on the DL never hurts

28. Carolina Panthers - Jordan Matthews WR from Vanderbilt, he was the best WR in the SEC, he played on a mid-level team so he didn't get the recognition, he is big, he is fast, and he has better hands than Kelvin Benjamin. Gives Newton an instant down field threat.

29. New England Patriots - Kyle Van Noy OLB from BYU, seems like a Patriot kind of guy to me

30. San Francisco 49ers - Donte Moncrief WR from Ole Miss, they still need WR help, Benjamin is on the board, but why draft another TE when you have Vernon Davis? They need a big, fast WR that can stretch the field

31. Denver Broncos - Kyle Fuller CB from Virginia Tech, this guy was shut-down before the injury

32. Seattle Seahawks - Austin Seferian-Jenkins TE from Washington, Seattle goes local and gives Wilson some help under-neath

Up next: a Multiple Part Blog on Unionization with a little help from my friends!

Tuesday, February 11, 2014

Michael Sam and what the Real Issues Are

So I have been enjoying my time off immensely, gearing up for my huge mock draft piece, and then it happened. Michael Sam of Missouri came out and could be the first openly gay professional football player. Now in the coming weeks, months, etc there is going to be A LOT that is going to be said about homosexuality, rights, fairness, etc, but I want to set the record straight about Michael Sam before the circus gets too wound up and people start losing sight of what is important.

First things first, Michael Sam is not a first round talent. Period. So if he drops to the late second or early 3rd round it has NOTHING to do with his orientation. Now it would be a story if he was a first round talent and he dropped. Then everyone would have a right to be pissed off. This is NOT the case. I have taken the liberty of comparing Sam to other elite pass rushers from around the country. I started my search by looking at everyone's favorite stat: SACKS, of which Sam had 11.5 last year. On the NCAA stat site the players are ranked by sacks per game so I pulled all the players that had better sacks per game than Sam. From there I compared total sacks, total tackles for loss (TFL), how they ranked on their team for sacks and TFL as a %, and how many TFL per game they had. I also included if they had a team-mate that made the top 30 list for sacks per game. Here are the names I came up with:

Marcus SmithLouisville
Trent MurphyStanford
Hau'Oli KihahaWashington
Jackson JeffcoatTexas
Vic BeasleyClemson
Jeremiah AttuochuGeorgia Tech
Dee FordAuburn
Demarcus LawrenceBoise St.
Shaquil BarrettColorado St
Aaron DonaldPittsburgh
Michael SamMissouri
Cedric ReedJeffcoat's Teammate
Lorenzo MauldinSmith's Teammate
Kony EalySam's Teammate
Cory JamesBarrett's Teammate

And here are the stats ranked by Sacks per game:

SacksTeam Sacks% of teamTFLTeam TFL% of teamTeammateLevel of CompetitionSacks per gameTFL per game
Marcus Smith14.5430.3418.51020.18Lorenzo Mauldin 5th1.121.4
Trent Murphy15440.3423.51090.22none2nd1.071.7
Hau'Oli Kihaha13410.3218740.24none2nd11.4
Jackson Jeffcoat13390.3319890.21Cedric Reed 3rd11.5
Vic Beasley13380.34231230.19none4th11.8
Jeremiah Attuochu12.5340.3717830.20none4th0.961.3
Dee Ford10.5320.3316900.18none1st0.881.3
Demarcus Lawrence10.5300.3520.5870.24none4th0.881.7
Shaquil Barrett12320.3820.5820.25Cory James 4th0.861.5
Aaron Donald11250.4428.5860.33none4th0.852.2
Michael Sam11.5410.2817.51080.16Kony Ealy 1st0.821.4
Cedric Reed10390.2616.5890.19Jackson Jeffcoat 3rd0.771.3
Lorenzo Mauldin9.5430.22131020.13Marcus Smith 5th0.731
Kony Ealy9.5410.23161080.15Michael Sam1st0.681.1
Cory James8320.2513820.16Shaquil Barrett 4th0.621
I also included the level of competition, because a player going after AAC offenses doesn't face the same challenges as a player going against SEC offenses. When determining the level of competition I looked at 2 stats: How many teams did a conference put in the top 25 for total offense and for scoring offense. I added the 2 together and divided. Here's the breakdown:

Top 25 Offenses:                               Top 25 Scoring Offenses:
SEC - 5                                             SEC - 6
B10 - 3                                              Pac12 - 4
MW - 2                                             B12 - 3
B12 - 2                                             ACC - 2
Pac12 - 2                                          B10 - 2
ACC - 2                                           MW - 2
AAC - 1                                           AAC - 1

Averages:
SEC - 5.5
Pac12 - 3
B12 - 2.5
B10 - 2.5
ACC - 2
MW - 2
AAC - 1

So what does all that mean? Well I took the stats of Sacks, % of Team's Sacks, TFL, % of Team's TFL, sacks per game, TFL per game and assigned them points from 1.5 down to .1 and I gave the conference ranks points from 1 to 0. Players also got .5 points for having a team-mate because they were not trying to do it alone, and got .75 points if they did not have a teammate listed, because these players were literally 1 man wrecking crews.

Sacks% Team SacksTFL% Team TFLTeammateConference RankSacks per gameTFL per game
Marcus Smith1.41.10.90.60.7501.50.9
Trent Murphy1.51.11.41.10.750.751.41.3
Hau'Oli Kihaha1.30.60.81.30.750.751.30.9
Jackson Jeffcoat1.30.8110.50.51.31.1
Vic Beasley1.31.11.30.80.750.251.31.4
Jeremiah Attuochu11.30.60.90.750.2510.6
Dee Ford0.60.80.40.60.7510.90.6
Demarcus Lawrence0.61.21.21.30.750.250.81.3
Shaquil Barrett0.91.41.21.40.50.250.71.1
Aaron Donald0.71.51.51.50.750.250.61.5
Michael Sam0.80.50.70.40.510.50.9
Cedric Reed0.40.40.50.80.50.50.40.6
Lorenzo Mauldin0.30.10.20.10.7500.30.2
Kony Ealy0.30.20.40.20.510.20.3
Cory James0.10.30.20.40.50.250.10.2
You add that all together and you get these rankings:

Trent Murphy9.31
Aaron Donald8.32
Vic Beasley8.23
Hau'Oli Kihaha7.74
Jackson Jeffcoat7.55
Shaquil Barrett7.56
Demarcus Lawrence7.47
Marcus Smith7.28
Jeremiah Attuochu6.49
Dee Ford5.710
Michael Sam5.311
Cedric Reed4.112
Kony Ealy3.113
Cory James2.114
Lorenzo Mauldin215
Michael Sam is the 11th best by these rankings of these players. He does not even grade out better than DL's from Colorado State or Boise State. On a side note: Aaron Donald from Pitt is an absolute monster, go back and check the stats. Amazing. So in conclusion, being the 11th best DL does not translate into a high draft pick. At best he goes late second if ONLY these defensive players were in the draft. He is a talented player, but he was far from being cream of the crop, but with some coaching he could be awesome, but judging from the stats from last year, not so much. And my list does not even include names such as Clowney, Jernigan, Roby, Shazier, or other various Linebackers and Defensive Backs. So when you factor in ALL the defensive players that could be chosen Sam is falling even farther, probably into the late 3rd round at best. 

Now let's get into the politics of his announcement and answer the question: "So what if he falls out of the 3rd or 4th round and into the 5th or 6th? THEN can we start saying it's because he is gay?"

The truthful answer to this is: MAYBE, but I don't think so and here's why:

1. Once a player falls into the fourth round or farther sometimes it's hard to say where he matches up. Things get messy later in the draft, chances are taken, players are reached for, etc etc, a lot can go crazy here and it's hard to say what happens from here on out. I will say Sam SHOULD go somewhere in the fourth, he does have talent, and could be a steal.

2. He may be the first publicly gay ACTIVE NFL player, but he is NOT the first gay player. There have been some that have come out AFTER they left the NFL. So there is a precedent for gay players in the NFL, whether it was public or not.

3. Teams may not want the media attention that comes with a mid-round pick. Because there will be media attention. And yes, he has the media attention because he is gay, but teams will not pass on him because he is gay, but because of the un-wanted distractions.

4. His college team has played with him for a year and accepted him, and those are kids.

Now, sadly, there may be some locker room tensions at first, because there are ignorant people everywhere, and some good-hearted people that may feel they don't know how to act. But if Sam is drafted onto a team with a solid locker-room then these issues should go away. And if he performs and helps a team win...well then it will be a non-issue even quicker.

This is not the equivalent of Jackie Robinson here. There have been gay players before, yes he will be the first active gay player and if he performs I don't see a huge revelation that "OH MY GOD! GAY PLAYERS CAN PLAY PRO BALL!" They already have. If he doesn't perform I don't see a huge revelation, "OH MY GOD! GAY PLAYERS CANNOT PLAY PRO BALL!" They already have. 

I commend him for coming out, because nobody should be forced to hide who they are for any reason. He obviously has strength of character and is making a statement that he could be the first ACTIVE gay NFL player. It's never easy being the first of anything, but the road was already cut out for him, he is just laying the concrete. I wish him all the luck in the world and I hope he has a great NFL career, but that has nothing to do with his orientation. And as I have shown, his orientation should not have much of a bearing on where he gets drafted, don't let the media and people with agenda's cloud the main issue here: A mid-level talent has caused a media storm that the media will only make worse by trying to make issues out of issues that aren't there. It happens all the time. I hope I have pointed out the real facts and issues here to help you stay focused and enjoy football.

Wednesday, January 8, 2014

Year in Review

Well faithful followers, the year is officially over for me. After this blog I will be taking some time off from now until sometime in March. Then in March I will be back with a Mock Draft Blog. Then from there I will probably be down to 1 blog a month on topics such as the new play-off system, recruiting, who is looking good, etc, and anything else exciting that may come up in the off-season. As for next year, the ground work is already being laid for some huge changes and some fantastic insight. I cannot wait for the new season to begin already. But before I say adios for a month or so lets put a big ole red bow on this past year.

1. Bowl Game Recaps
In my last blog I posted the records for each conference in this year's bowls. Here is a little closer look at that:

SEC - went 7-3 this year with wins over the ACC(2), B10(2), AAC, C-USA, and the B12, the losses were to the B12, ACC, and B10. Of the losses I can truly say I never saw the Oklahoma win over the Tide. Yes Georgia was a ranked team that was rattled with injuries and the Huskers are a lot more talented that how they play, not a huge upset. As for mis-matches in this year's bowls, I think they were all evenly matched except for Georgia Tech/Ole Miss which was heavy SEC favor and maybe LSU/Iowa which had a close socre, but wasn't that close of a game, in the SEC favor.

Pac12 - went 6-3 this year with wins over the Mountain West (2), ACC (2), Independents, and B12. The losses came to the Mountain West, B12, and B10. Of the losses, Colorado State had a huge comeback against Washington State, which was one of the better MW teams against a middle of the road Pac12; then Arizona State laid an egg against the Red Raiders and the Spartans out muscled Stanford. The Pac12 has had a hard time against the MW in previous years but went 2-1 this year. As for mis-matches the Pac12 benefited in their 2 matchups against the ACC: UCLA/Va Tech, and Arizona/BC. All in all though I would say that the Pac12 finally started making some strides that I said they needed to make early in the year. They were the 2nd toughest conference in the regular season this year and then backed that up with a great bowl record, even if some of it was against soft competition. The old Pac12 would have folded.

B12 - went 3-3 this year and pulled out wins against the SEC, Pac12, and B10 and lost to the SEC, AAC, and Pac12. The bowl record is very indicative of the type of year the B12 had. They had some flash, they beat some teams, but they also lost to some teams. The split with the Pac12 and SEC shows how up and down this conference is. The Sooners pulled one out against Bama, then the Cowboys went down to Missouri. The Longhorns suffered from a poorly matched game and lost to the Ducks, but then the Red Raiders pulled out an upset against the Sun Devils. You never knew week to week how the B12 was going to show up. They pulled out the upsets in this year's bowl season and then Baylor went down to UCF.

ACC - went 5-6 this year but probably suffered from sending too many mediocre teams into bowl games this year. They scored wins against the B10 (2), the AAC, and the MAC...the losses came to the SEC (2), the Pac12 (2), C-USA, and the AAC. The wins against the B10 were not surprising, Clemson beat Ohio State, and the other was Syracuse over Minnesota. Then a UNC team that sleep walked the whole year came alive against a good Cincy team, but a suspect Miami was blown out by Louisville. The win against the MAC isn't really impressive and they went 0-4 against the best two conferences, granted the games against the Pac12 were over-matched contests, and the losses against the SEC included a winnable game by Duke against the Aggies, and a severely over matched Yellow Jacket team against Ole Miss.

B10 - went 2-5 this year and it just does not get any better for this conference. The Spartans beat Stanford and proved themselves, the Huskers lived up to their potential and beat a hurting Georgia, but after that....they lost 2 to the SEC (South Carolina in an evenly matched game, and LSU in a SEC favored game), lost 2 to the ACC with Clemson beating a closely matched Ohio State, and middle of the road Syracuse beating a middle of the road Minnesota. Oh yeah, they also lost to the B12 when a very middle of the road K-State beat Michigan.

2. Final Performance Index
So now with all the games in the books I can roll out my final Performance Index of the year. Before I get into the rankings I want to point out that there was one "fatal flaw" in my rankings. And I would like to thank Stanford for exploiting that flaw this year. All year I had Stanford in my top 4 and then they went out and got beat by a Michigan St team that I had way too low. When I put in the W and the L for these two teams I noticed something strange...Stanford lost the game and their Index score went UP. That is not right. So I started to experiment and sure enough teams were benefiting just from playing a ranked team regardless of whether they won or not. Well that cannot be. A team must win for the index to have any meaning. Also, Stanford had 3 losses on the season and a team with 3 losses cannot be anywhere close to my top 4 teams, I don't care how good your conference is. Stanford also had a loss to an un-ranked opponent, another "no-no" in my book if you are going to be considered elite. Great teams beat the teams they should. Period. So with all of that being said I went to work to rectify the "Stanford Problem" in my index. The first thing I did was introduce Negative points into the scoring system. I had originally set up the index not to "punish" teams, well if you lose to un-ranked teams, and lose 3 or more games in a year, you don't need to be punished necessarily but you need to be taken down some notches. So here are the changes I made:
Strength of Schedule
     Teams who play a hard schedule and survive week after week should be rewarded. They have been through the fire and proved themselves, BUT my limit is 2...as in 2 losses. If you lose 2 teams in ranked competition you get a -1 and it gets worse from there. If you only lose 1 you get 0 and if you lose none, you get a point.
Eye Test
     Overall loses is another issue and my limit is 3, if you lose 3 games you get -1 and it goes down from there. If you lose 2 games in a year that is 0 points, because 1 loss and 0 loss teams should be held in higher regard regardless of schedule or conference (ie Michigan State). I also added another part to the Eye Test and that is "Losses to Unranked Teams." This is a absolute "no-no" for anyone wanting to get into the big show, in my opinion. So if you go undefeated, that's great, you get a point, but if you lose to ONE unranked opponent it drops to -.5 and gets worse from there.
Conference Performance
     I feel like I have seen a light on this one. While this is a very important part of a team's make-up, how much control do they really have with this? And as has been proven, GOOD TEAMS PLAY IN BAD CONFERENCES, ie: Michigan State, and FSU. So I tweaked the conferences a little and gave different point values depending on how tough your conference is and how losses you have and then I lowered the weight that this part of the index carries. It is now the 3rd most important factor and is weighted at a 1.25; the Eye Test is at 1.5 and the Schedule is at 1.75. This made a huge difference in the rankings and I think make a lot more sense. So now without further delay here is my final Performance Index for this past season:
1FSU17.81
2Auburn17.69
3Michigan State15.63
4Missouri15.25
5Alabama14.25
6South Carolina12.63
7Stanford12.31
8Baylor12.25
9UCF12.06
Oklahoma12.06
11Oregon10.69
12LSU10.38
13Clemson9.44
14UCLA9.38
15Ohio State8.19
16Arizona State8.13
17Oklahoma State7.38
18Louisville5.81
All is right with the world, FSU is at #1 (they weren't till I made the changes), Michigan State is in the Top 4 and Stanford has dropped to 7th. I think this is fair, they were a conference champ, they play in the second hardest conference, but damn they lost too many games. So in a play-off year we would get FSU/Missouri and Auburn/Michigan State. Not a bad way to set it up at all. BUT, if you look at an 8 game play-off which I think is the best scenario, THOSE are some great matchups:
Baylor/FSU, Stanford/Auburn, South Carolina/Michigan State, Alabama/Missouri - who wins a national championship out of that? Sadly, UCF could not quite make the cut. Their conference is way to bad and when the conference is THAT terrible you have to go un-defeated. If they had gone un-defeated they would have been in the Top 5.

3. The Best and Worst I saw (only speaking of teams I actually watched during the season)
Best offense - Baylor
Worst offense - Florida
Best defense- FSU
Worst defense - Texas A&M
Best quarterback - Terry Bridgewater
Best running back - Tre Mason
Best WR - Jarvis Landry
Best TE - Jace Amaro
Most undisciplined team - Georgia Tech
Team that rose and fell the quickest on my board - Baylor
Most inconsistent - Stanford
Most consistent - FSU
Team that played in my "Game of the Week" the most - first of all I watched 20 different teams play in my Game of the Week during the year. Baylor, Clemson, Washington, Bama, Auburn, Georgia, South Carolina all got 2 viewings (not counting conference championships/bowl games), but the team that played in the most "big" games during the regular season for me was LSU with 4 different games that got the Game of the Week treatment. But I don't think they played in any after the mid-point of the season.

Thanks for taking the time to read this year. I will be back in a month or so with a huge draft break-down!

Monday, January 6, 2014

The End of an Era

What a great game and what a great way to end the BCS era. Florida State and Auburn played a classic, strength on strength, back and forth, who is going to blink first. A game that went through multiple scenarios and special teams ends up being the story of the night. I said all along that Winston would get his, just didn't expect him to get it all on the final drive.

Third down was a key down early. Auburn brought the pressure and FSU couldn't cope with it. Winston was off target early on and just as I predicted Auburn won the first quarter 7-3. Auburn then went on to build a 21-3 lead and my prediction was coming closer and closer to being the truth. On my Facebook I also said that Nick Marshall would make the big plays early and not screw up late, sadly, he did the opposite of the second part of that statement.

The first half was all Auburn first of all. The D-line was owning FSU on third down, Auburn was playing their game, but Marshall was firing low and being in-decisive. There were at least 2 opportunities for him to run and make some plays but he did not do it and ended up with incomplete passes or short completions. When Auburn ran to the outside FSU had no answer, Marshall was too fast, and the screen call on third down was genius play calling on an over-pursuing defense and at that point it was 21-3 and Marshall was 6 of 9 for 103 yards. The biggest blemish would be the missed field goal for that half of football for Auburn. How big is a missed field goal? Pretty big.

The second half started with Auburn up 21-10 and the game was theirs to lose. With their running game and their defense there was no way they could lose this. And Auburn didn't lose it as much as FSU stood up and took it from them. The second half turned into a defensive struggle which no one saw coming. The FSU defense was stopping the run and playing with great fire and passion. #8 Timmy Jernigan was a beast inside and ate up anything that came his way. The score got to 21-20 and FSU missed a chance at a 2 point conversion due to unsportsmanlike behavior. Auburn still has the lead, they have FSU right where they want them.

At this point I was starting to wonder where Tre Mason has been all game, he had the quietest 195 yards I have ever seen out of a back. But on the drive around the 10 minute mark, #8 for FSU started having some conditioning issues and the run game started to click. Mason was finding holes in the middle, Marshall was making plays although still indecisive and costing Auburn yardage. But on 3rd and 4 inside the red zone with #8 Jernigan gassed, Auburn decides to throw the ball and no one was there and they had to settle for the field goal.

It was at this point I turned to my friends, with the score 24-20, and I said, "How big is that missed field goal? Marv Levy once said, "Offense sells tickets, defense wins games, special teams wins championships." No sooner had I said that and FSU broke the kick off for 100 yards and a touchdown. Blazing speed and Auburn players falling down and getting sucked inside the play will help that everytime.

So here we go, this is Auburn's type game right here. Marshall made a few plays and with #8 Jernigan out on the sideline Mason finally broke a huge 37 yard run for a touchdown and Auburn was ahead 27-24.

Now that brings us to Winston. The big games have been on his shoulders all year. He has been going through some growing pains as the season has gone along. I said all along though he was too talented not to get his in this game. Before the final FSU drive Winston was 14/28 for 160 yards....not very Heisman like. On the final drive he was 6 for 7 for 77 yards including the game winning pass to Benjamin. The Tiger defense had been holding all night like I said they would, but when ultimate crunch time started, it was all Winston's. But if Auburn hadn't missed that field goal earlier, this would have been a tie game.

If there was a GOAT for Auburn it was #11 Chris Davis. This kid had a rough night. He blew coverages, he missed a tackle on the final FSU drive, he got suckered into leaving his assignments and Benjamin caught the winning TD over him at the end.

Nick Marshall did not have that great of a game either. His indecision hurt Auburn on critical drives and then he threw a pick on a bad pass in the 4th quarter. Not exactly "not screwing up late." He never should have thrown that pass, he had no chance of completing it, but sometimes the moment gets to you. Speaking of the moment, it sure looked too big for FSU early on. Penalties (8 for 60) and dropped passes were a theme through the first to third quarters, but the half-time adjustments shut down Auburn and gave FSU just enough offense to win.

This was a great game and was truly a #1 on a #2 match-up. Special teams came up huge in a game that was tightly contested as it so often does and Winston completed his magical journey by coming through in the clutch. My hat is off to FSU, I feel like I abandoned them in this game. I had this to say on September 2nd last year about FSU:
"Winston is the real deal. The kids is tremendously accurate, on the run, with a man in his face, standing in the pocket, etc etc. I saw more than enough against albeit a Pitt defense, but the kid has all the tools. And he is COMMITTED to throwing the ball. It does not look like he wants to run, but if that opens up, there will be no stopping him. If you want proof of what Winston can do, see if you can find footage of him completing a pass on 1st and 30 close to half-time. Wow. I am still un-decided on the FSU D, they got pushed around early, started tackling better and seemed sound, but the Pitt qb was also making some bad throws which led to a F/G and a couple turnovers in the first half. Remember this name: Kelvin Benjamin, a big kid who is going to catch a lot of balls for FSU this year."

Winston ran for 26 yards tonight and got those yards on a critical drive in the first half to cut the score to 21-10. Without that TD, FSU is probably done for.

On September 21st I put FSU down as the 4th best team in the country while the Coaches had them at #8.

But then I picked Clemson to beat them on October 17th and FSU then trashed them.

Then on November 9th I said the Seminoles were the 2nd best team in the country and that the national title was theirs to lose to Alabama.

Then I picked Auburn. Live and learn I think?

As for picks here is how the season shook out.

Regular season: 57-27, 68%
Bowl season: 21-14, 60% - lost my last 3 picks
Total record: 78-41, 66%

What gives me solace? Espn went 19-16 with their Power Index, but they did get the National Champ right.

I do want to give a shout out to my buddy Aaron, who has given me insight over the year, he went 23-12 (66%) in bowls, but sadly like me, he had Auburn picked as well.

Here are the final bowl standings of the conferences:
1. Sun Belt: 2-0, 100%
2. SEC: 7-3, 70%
3. Pac12: 6-3, 67%
    Independents: 2-1, 67%
5. B12: 3-3, 50%
    Conference USA: 3-3, 50%
    Mountain West: 3-3, 50%
8. ACC: 5-6, 45%
9. AAC: 2-3, 40%
10. B10: 2-5, 29%
11. MAC: 0-5, 0%

That's the end to another great season of College Football. I'll be back later in the week with a team ranking wrap up (I had to make big changes to my Performance Index) and a bigger break-down of the bowl records of these conferences. Hope you enjoyed the games!

Thursday, January 2, 2014

Florida State and Auburn

Here is the big one. By the end of this blog I will have a prediction for the national championship game. For this blog I thought it would be interesting to take a look back at last year's national championship through the eyes of my performance index that I have been using this year to see if there are any insights that can be gained from that.

First let's have a look at the Top 4 teams from THIS year as a refresher:
1Auburn20.89
2Stanford17.98
3Alabama17.95
4FSU17.50

Now by using the same process from this year and applying to last year's national championship contenders we have:

Alabama - 20.69
Notre Dame - 17.33

This does not bode well for FSU off the start. Auburn has a higher score than Alabama, but  Notre Dame has a lower score than FSU, thus making the gap between THIS year's contenders .03 bigger that last year's. And we all know what the actual gap was on the field between the Irish and Bama.

When I put Notre Dame through the scoring process I had to put them into the ACC since they don't have a conference. But most of their games were against ACC opponents so it seemed like a logical fit. I gave them a point for being conference champ even though they weren't, but they would have been if they had actually been in the ACC.

By deciding to put Notre Dame into the ACC, I put them into the same conference as FSU which only helps draw comparisons from this year to last, totally didn't even think about that when I did it. In looking at the conferences from last year this is what I found:
1. SEC - 3
2. B12 - 2.8
3. B10 - 2.4
4. Big East - 2
5. Pac12 - 1.6
6. ACC - .8

The scoring was a little different because I included the big east which led to some bigger scores than this year, but they were all scaled the same so the change was negligible. Ironically the ACC has been the worst conference in American for 2 straight years. And oddly enough, the B10 was the 3rd best last year....But even with a crap conference Notre Dame got a great score because of who else they played, ie: Stanford, Oklahoma, Michigan State, Michigan....

Now for Alabama, the SEC was brutal last year, more so than this year. They lost a game against A&M but looked dominating against everyone else. Not a whole lot of explaining to do here.

So based on last year FSU should be worried. Based on MY index there is a bigger gap between the two teams this year as compared to last year and both FSU and Notre Dame came out of the ACC in my index. That's 2 strikes.

Before I get into the actual break-down of this year's game I want to spend some time and talk about all these numbers. The old saying is: "numbers don't lie." And that is true, but sometimes it's hard to really tell what these numbers are telling us and sometimes, you just gotta know who the better team is. Look at these numbers from last year when I expanded my index to include other big teams from last year:

1. Alabama - 20.69
2. Florida - 20.57
3. Kansas State - 20.38
4. Stanford - 18.03
Notre Dame - 17.33
Oregon - 12.84
Louisville - 9.5

I stopped ranking at 4 because I don't know if there would have been a team higher than Notre Dame and I did not care for this example. Last year, we had 3 teams with scores in the 20's. Two from the SEC and K-State played a brutal B12 schedule and won them all but one, and was un-defeated against ranked opponents. The Pac12 was weak, but once again Stanford played a brutal schedule with 7 ranked opponents and Oregon only had 5. 

K-State played Oregon in a bowl last year and the Ducks were victorious in a game that no one doubted they would win. But my index had them way below the Wildcats. I don't know of anyone that would have picked K-State in that game, myself included. Furthermore let's look at Florida and Louisville....wow....what can you say here? That's a huge difference in the numbers and the best explanation is: UPSETS HAPPEN. Period. It's even happened this year. But in going deeper into that the numbers cannot express a team's heart, or their desire to win, which Louisville had a lot more of than Florida last year. BUT Louisville really suffered because of a weak schedule and a weak conference, AND they lost 2 games. But I have said all along that the AAC is under-rated. Through out last year Cincinnati and Rutgers were ranked, but they weren't ranked at the time Louisville played them, which impacted the scoring. If Louisville had gone un-defeated their number rises to 12.51, if Cincy and Rutgers stayed ranked, the number rises to 16.45. The gap closes if respect is paid where respect is due. Even this year, Cincy and Rutgers went to bowls, and so did former member Syracuse which joined the ACC. Houston didn't make it last year, but they did this year, add in UCF and the former Big East/AAC has some muscle. 

Even with that being said, we see that as Alabama with a gap of 3.36 over Notre Dame predicated an ass kicking, the gap of 4.12 over Louisville (@16.45) predicated a huge upset. If we look at this year, I don't even have UCF included in my Top 15 teams on the index, but I predicted they would beat Baylor. I had Stanford ranked over Michigan State all year and the Spartans came up roses and I missed the pick. Which brings me to the second truth in this segment: SOMETIMES GOOD TEAMS PLAY IN BAD CONFERENCES and that's where the numbers can mis-lead you. Michigan State looked awesome. UCF played a heck of a game and they both won against opponents that they shouldn't have. I feel good that I pulled UCF out of the rabble, but I completely missed on Michigan State. However I would like to point out one difference in my Performance Index as compared to ESPN's Power Index. ESPN designed their system to a predictive system in order to pick games. I designed my index to tell me what 4 teams should be in a play-off. Before the Rose Bowl I don't think there was any doubt that a 4 team play-off of Stanford, Bama, Auburn, and FSU was not fair and just. And last year the 4 team play-off would have been Bama, Florida, K-State, and Stanford. Would we really have put Oregon over K-State the B12 Champ and Stanford the Pac12 champ who had beaten Oregon? So I do not use my index as a predicative tool, but a tool of telling me who the best 4 teams are over the course of a season. If Stanford and Michigan State played 4 times, who wins the majority of those games?

As for now I am currently 19-10 in my picks and ESPN's Power Index is 18-11. ESPN and I have differed on 9 picks and I currently hold the edge of 5-4 over them. The two biggest ones that I scored over them are Ole Miss over Georgia Tech and UCF over Baylor. Georgia Tech is in the Top 20 on the Power Index....really?? Who in their right mind, who actually watched Ole Miss and the Yellow Jackets play this year would put Georgia Tech over the Rebels? And I feel this was the same with UCF and Baylor.

ESPN has another formula they are using to predict the best teams in the country as well called the Championship Drive Ratings which is as I quote: ESPN's Championship Drive Ratings evaluate teams on the difficulty of achieving their W-L or better and how well they control games using in-game win probability; both adjusted for quality of opponent. The Championship Drive Ratings are on a 0-100 scale. Ratings update daily.

These rankings look closer to mine I was shocked to find out. As of today they have: Stanford, Michigan State, Auburn, FSU, and Alabama at 5th. And as far as I can tell they have never had Alabama in the top 4 within the past month but a combination of Michigan State and Arizona State. Interesting stuff. The Championship Drive Ratings are also a tool used to try to predict the best 4 teams for a play-off and not necessarily who will win games.

Now by showing the numbers and then telling you why the numbers only matter so much, let's talk about FSU and Auburn!!

We'll start with some rankings:
AuburnFSUEdge
Total Offense10th - 505.35th - 529.4FSU
Passing Offense107th - 169.614th - 322FSU
Rushing Offense1st - 335.725th - 207.4Auburn
Scoring Offense10th - 40.22nd - 53FSU
Total Defense89th - 423.53rd - 268.5FSU
Passing Defense104th - 260.21st - 152FSU
Rushing Defense62nd - 163.214th - 116.5FSU
Scoring Defense36th - 241st - 10.7FSU
Turnover Margin60th - 03rd - +17FSU
Sacks57th - 2831st - 33FSU
Sacks Allowed21st - 1676th - 29Auburn
Penalties37th - 5 per game61st - 5.46 per gameAuburn
Red Zone Offense19th - 51/57 - .895 - 42 TD1st - 67/69 - .97 - 55TDFSU
Red Zone Defense7th - 34/48 - .71 - 23 TD23rd - 20/26 - .77 - 14 TDAuburn
Strength of Schedule6 Ranked Opponents4 Ranked OpponentsAuburn
ConferenceSECACCAuburn

So why are we playing this game?!?!? FSU right? Well, once again, these are just numbers. Let's go deeper.

FSU Breakdown - This team runs off of Jameis Winston. There's no other way to put it. In what I deem to be the BIG games from FSU's season: Duke, Miami, NC State, and Clemson, the passing yards vrs rushing yards was huge. They put the game on Winston and he delivered with some of his best games of the year. FSU has a pretty balanced attack, but in those games Winston definitly stole the show. 444 yards against Clemson, 342 against NC State, 325 on Miami, and 330 on Duke. This could be a worry for FSU. Winston's completion percentage has been going down. He was 73.6% in September, 66.3 in October, 67.2 in November, and 59.4 in December. Also, he has only thrown 10 INT's on the year, but 3 of those in the last 2 games. The schedule worries me as well, ie: is FSU ready for this game? There are 6 bowl teams on FSU's schedule which the Seminoles beat all of them, but those bowl teams are 2-4 in the bowls so far. And one of those losses is Duke "the second best ACC team" against Texas A&M who was not even the second best team on their side of the conference. I also have a feeling that FSU is not as sound against the run as the numbers suggest. They gave up more than their season average against BC who has a great running back, Clemson who just has a great offense, NC State who gouged them, and Syracuse which is just odd. 
Bottom line: It's all about Winston in the big games. The schedule up to this point was really soft. The run D might not be as dominant as the numbers. And they have looked completely dominant all year and have not lost any of the trap games that the Seminoles usually do.

Auburn Breakdown - I don't know how this team wins games. This is a team that literally trades body blows and the last team standing is the victor. They aren't that impressive anywhere on the field except in the run game. And that run game is RIDICULOUS. They go fast and they pound the heck out of a team. Alabama learned that the hard way. Alabama has the 9th best rushing D in the country and gave up 296 to the Tigers. Alabama has the 2nd best scoring defense and gave up 34 points. Auburn ran for 531 yards against Missouri...who only gives up 151 a game. The defense isn't great, but they make the plays when they need to. This is a team that rises up in the moment and they don't beat themselves. They have won close games all year by putting themselves in situations to win. Tre Mason is an absolute beast running the ball and has been on an incredible tear lately. There's no question about what to expect out of this team, but is that enough to beat a team that looks as dominant as FSU?
Bottom line: It's all about the run game, and I am sure Malzahn is going to have something special for FSU. Auburn will win the close game, if they can keep it close in the 4th quarter. The defense isn't great, but are capable of making the stops that they NEED to.

Last thoughts before the pick: This game will be a question of who can impose their will? If FSU gets up 14 and can do what they want to do and force Auburn out of their running game, it's a Seminole victory. But if Auburn can keep it close in the 4th quarter and put Winston in some situations that neither he or the team has been through....Auburn has them right where they want them. So who has the stronger will? Let's take a look at these teams in the first quarter of games this year:

Florida State has scored 626 offensive points this year (only offensive touchdowns and field goals)
165 of those points have come in the first quarter or 26% of the total
Florida State has allowed 139 points this year with 42 of those coming in the first for a 30% average.
Florida State has scored 3 points in the first quarter 4 times this year and 3 or 7 points 6 times.
The numbers are bolstered by the NC State game where FSU scored 35 points in the first quarter. If you take out the NC State game completely FSU's numbers look like this:
577 points on the season, 130 in the first quarter for only a 23% average.

Auburn has scored 501 offensive points this year
134 of those points have come in the first or 27% of the total
Auburn has allowed 312 points on the year with 66 coming in the first or 21%
Auburn has scored 7 or less points in the first 6 times this year. Same as FSU.
Auburn has no outliers that need to be taken out. 

So what we see is a FSU team that starts slower than how they finish and an Auburn team that thrives on being ahead early. Auburn's running game is dominating, Winston needs time to find his rhythm, and he will find it and make his plays, but by that time will it be enough to get ahead of Auburn? If the game is close, Auburn knows what to do and FSU hasn't been tested like that. Will Auburn drain clock with their running game late and protect the lead or will they continue to go fast and put Winston on the field and play the shoot-out game? If Auburn is smart, they run the ball early at tempo, hit a few big pass plays, get the lead, then slow it down to limit the damage that Winston and the Seminoles will eventually do. 

PREDICTION: AUBURN