Wednesday, September 18, 2013

Games to Watch Week 4 #LSU #Auburn

And here we are with another edition of what to watch this weekend! A couple house-keeping items for the blog real quick:
1a. If you absolutely HATE LSU, you might want to stay away for a couple weeks. They are going to be my game of the week this week and more than likely next week as well when they travel to Georgia. I will also be doing a huge write-up on "What-ever Happened to the Defenses of the SEC" in which LSU will be featured alongside the other 5 heavy weights of the division: Alabama, A&M, South Carolina, Georgia, and Florida.
1b. Be on the look-out for my "What-ever Happened to the Defenses of the SEC" which is looking like a multi-part story and promises to be the most epic thing I have done yet.
2. Starting this week I will be making predictions on my games to watch
3. On Saturday nights I will be posting my predictions for the Top 10 and on Sunday mornings I will post my game break-downs.
4. Oregon State will be replaced by Texas Tech on my Teams to Watch List with a Red Raider victory this week.
5. With a loss this week Rutgers will be removed from my Teams to Watch List and replaced with the winner of BYU and Utah.
6. With a Texas loss and a Miami victory, the Hurricanes will replace the Long Horns on my Teams to Watch List.

Now on with the show!

#Clemson(4)@North Carolina State on Thursday

Team with the most to lose: Clemson - What top 10 team can afford to lose to an un-ranked opponent? Florida State is already 1-0 in conference and Clemson must keep up. I doubt they have any problems.

Team with the most to gain: Someone could make a case for NCState becoming a sexy sleeper pick if they come with the upset, but there's not much substance here. They beat Louisiana Tech and barely beat Richmond. They do seem to keep it interesting in league play but never seem to be able to hold a ranking. But with a win over Clemson maybe they get the momentum to break through this year?

Top 25 Impact: HIGH with a NC State victory

Prediction: CLEMSON

#North Carolina@Georgia Tech

Team with the most to lose or win: Both are battling for a spot in the ACC Championship game and its all about this game. Who-ever wins this will probably take this side of the conference, IF they can get by Miami later on, but neither team wants to go into the Miami game with already having a loss. I think both of these teams are stronger than Miami, but I did think North Carolina was on top. After the first two weeks of the season I am not so sure. Georgia Tech is dominating and that UNC defense looks a lot worse than what I thought it would.

Top 25 Impact: MEDIUM to HIGH

Prediction: GEORGIA TECH 

#Tennessee@Florida(18)

Team with the most to lose: Florida - Another loss, and with this one being at home...national title hopes go bye-bye. Florida looks to rebound after that offensive embarrassment against Miami and put another embarrassment on Tennessee. I doubt they score more than Oregon did, but they had better look good doing it. Florida also becomes regarded as a lesser opponent for the rest of the SEC with a loss.

Team with the most to gain: Florida - I don't think people are ready to give up on Florida just yet, and a convincing win against Tennessee would be just enough for them to stick around. I don't see a huge jump up the polls after beating Tennessee immediately, but the gain here is counted in Florida not dropping completely out of the race.

Top 25 Impact: HIGH with a Tennessee victory

Prediction: FLORIDA

#Michigan State(24)@Notre Dame(21)

Team with the most to lose: Notre Dame - After a scare against Purdue a lot of experts are starting to echo the statements I made in the pre-season about Notre Dame. Tommy Rees may not be the answer and there's something wrong about this defense this year. They ain't who they used to be. A loss against Michigan State and they are out of the Top 25 and the chances of getting back to the top become excruciatingly difficult.

Team with the most to gain: Michigan State - The Spartans are 3-0 and have one of the best defenses in the country. The running game seems to be running on high gear and they have settled on a quarterback. A win against a Top 25 team, even an over-rated one would do wonders for the Spartans' season. Other than Michigan, a B10 team with an out of conference Top 25 victory is a rare thing. Even a B10 team PLAYING a top 25 team out of conference is a reach.

Top 25 Impact: Medium

Prediction: MICHIGAN STATE

#Arkansas@Rutgers

Team with the most to lose: Arkansas - They are riding a high right now that is higher than ANYTHING they accomplished last year. They have the first freshman running back in SEC history to rush for over 100 yards in the first 3 games of the year. They are looking better under Bielema, people are starting to believe, and momentum is already growing. Now they have a true road test against, (what I thought to be a sleeper), AAC Rutgers. This will be a nice step in the legitimate direction for the Hogs, as well as a good test of what Bielema has started to build; lets just hope they are not caught looking ahead to their home date against A&M next week. (The A&M game will bear some special examining next week, because it gives me a funny upset type feeling that must be explored.) This is a bragging rights game for the SEC against the AAC and I don't expect Arkansas to let the conference down.

Team with the most to gain: Louisville - They need Rutgers to beat Arkansas and bring legitimacy back to the AAC in the worst way. A Rutgers victory over an SEC foe like Arkansas and Louisville's national title hopes get a boost. A Rutgers loss and well, those hopes pretty much stay the same; just a mere hope. Maybe I should have reversed these: Arkansas is the team with the most to gain and Louisville is the team with the most to lose? Interesting.

Top 25 Impact: Medium

Prediction: ARKANSAS The running game and defense are WAY too much for Rutgers to handle

#Purdue@Wisconsin

Team with the most to lose: Wisconsin - Another loss and they may not see the Top 25 for a while. And this would be a loss at home to an un-ranked team: ugly. It will be interesting to see how Wisconsin responds to the adversity from last week at Arizona State. Will they hang their heads or are they coming out mad as hell?

Team with the most to gain: Purdue - They are a couple plays away from being 2-1. They are playing their 2nd top 25 team in 2 weeks and we will see if they are mentally up to it. This victory alone won't mean a whole lot unless they start stringing some together, but you have to start somewhere.

Top 25 Impact: Low to Medium

Prediction: WISCONSIN

#Arizona State(23)@Stanford(5)

Team with the most to lose: Arizona State - They JUST got into the Top 25, they JUST beat a Top 25 team, they are on the way to a break-through season; they CANNOT let the momentum go now. A win against Stanford would be HUGE for them and propel them into the Top 20 and put them on everybody's list. A loss here, and they are just another Pac12 team. Now, a loss for Stanford will hurt them, but they still play in the Pac12 and with victories against Washington, UCLA, and Oregon, this game would be forgiven.

Team with the most to gain: Arizona State - It's up and up with a victory here. And with Washington, UCLA, and Notre Dame as the only remaining ranked opponents on the schedule, the Sun Devils might be looking at a Pac12 championship game. That's still a big MIGHT however because Washington and UCLA are no push-overs this year.

Top 25 Impact: HIGH

Prediction: The REAL Stanford Cardinal shows up, not the sleep walker of the past 2 weeks

#Auburn@LSU(7)

Team with the most to lose: LSU - Death Valley at night, un-ranked opponent, LSU needs to continue to be impressive. A loss here and people will start doubting. However, if Auburn turns out to be legit, this is another loss that can be erased with LSU's up-coming schedule. But why make yourself have to climb up a mountain when you can take care of business up front? We will learn a LOT about these two teams here. Is Auburn for real? Is LSU's defense for real? Will LSU be looking ahead to Georgia? Will Les Miles give us more brutalization of the English language? You know the answer to that last one! And that answer is "un-typically."

Team with the most to gain: Auburn - They are back with a victory here. That's right I will lay it flat out right here and right now. Get Auburn ranked, people better stop sleeping on them, and we better start talking about coach of the year award for Gus Malzahn. I am a little weary of a defense that let Mississippi State control them, and almost gave up 500 yards to Washington State, but "Whatever Happened to Defense in the SEC?" anyways?  That's a teaser by the way.

Top 25 Impact: HIGH

Prediction: Typically: LSU

This is my Game of the Week selection and I will give a detailed break down on Sunday!!

#Utah@BYU

Team with the most to lose/gain: One of these teams gets respectable. Utah has had an extremely potent offense and is 3 turnovers away against Oregon State from being 3-0. They are a lot stronger than expected and will give teams in the Pac12 fits this year and that's not a bad team. BYU gave the game away in the season opener and then destroyed Texas. A win over a good Pac12 team immediately puts them on stage in my eyes, and with their schedule, they just might find themselves in the Top 20 by mid-season. Just don't ask them to throw the ball.

Top 25 Impact: LOW to MEDIUM

Prediction: UTAH

#New Mexico State@UCLA(15)

Team with the most to lose: UCLA - Un-ranked, 0-3 team comes into the Rose Bowl and knocks off the Bruins? Devastating. But the only reason this game is interesting is because UCLA is coming off of a HUGELY emotional win at Nebraska and they have another tough road test next week against Utah. This game has "trap" written all over it. Can UCLA dig down deep and show the heart of a champion?

Team with the most to gain: No one really gains anything here, UCLA just needs to not lose anything here.

Top 25 Impact: HIGH with a New Mexico State victory

Prediction: UCLA

Based on my predictions, teams on their way out of the top 25: Arizona State, Notre Dame

Based on my predictions, teams on their way into the top 25: Arkansas, Georgia Tech

Teams waiting in the wings: Wisconsin, Texas Tech (assuming they win)

Thanks for reading!! As always please leave any comments below or email them to me.

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2. Aubrey Mos @simplyNCAAF

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