1. Florida State - I really have no problem with this team being number one. They are un-defeated, although they are coming out of the weakest division in college football. But they have looked amazing all year. They have responded when the chips are down and they have dominated almost all year. They have one more ranked opponent to go and I have had them in my top 4 almost all year and before any of the coaches started to notice.
2. Ohio State - Okay, so they aren't playing in the weakest conference in the country, just the second weakest conference (more on this when we get to my rankings). They have not looked as impressive as FSU. They have not played as tough a schedule as ANYBODY ELSE save Michigan State in the top 10. No top 10 opponents all year. The B10 has a total of 3 teams in the BCS Top 25, okay so 2 are in the top 10, but the Coaches made sure to put Michigan State into the Top 10 so that the Spartans could be a Top 10 opponent for the Buck-eyes and add some justification to this absolutely ludicrous idea that Ohio State is the second best team in the country. They are un-defeated for 2 straight years and that is impressive. They get everyone's best shot during the year and they have won all challenges, I respect that, but if Auburn played their schedule they would be undefeated. If Stanford played OSU's schedule they would be undefeated. If South Carolina played OSU's schedule...you get the picture. Back to this point: 3 B10 teams in the Top 25, 2 in the Top 10....there are 7 SEC teams in the Top 25 and 4 in the Top 10 and 3 in the Top 5....Ohio State is ranked so high in the Coaches poll for one reason and one reason only and that is to keep an SEC team from playing in the National Championship. Period.
3. Auburn - A dominating win over Missouri, a close game in the B10 championship and the Tigers have a chance to get to #2.....
4. Alabama - A loss by FSU, a loss by Ohio State, a win by Auburn and Auburn and Alabama in the National Championship Game....
5. Missouri - Probably not much of a chance for them to jump into the top 2 with a win unless Ohio State loses and Missouri absolutely dominates Auburn. I am still not sure what to think of this Tiger team. They continue to surprise me. Anything is possible.
Now that the talk about the bullshit is over let me show you how these teams should really be ranked.
The 3 Point Process has changed to the Performance Index, and this is what it has to say about the state of college football. First here is how the conference performances look right now:
| Record | Rank | L in Conf | Rank | v. Top 25 | Rank | Overall | Rank | |
| B10 | 85-59, 59.028 | 0.6 | 48, 81% | 0.4 | 3-29, 0.09 | 0.2 | 1.2 | 4 |
| B12 | 65-51, 56% | 0.2 | 43, 84% | 0.6 | 4-21, 16% | 0.6 | 1.4 | 3 |
| ACC | 97-71, 57.7 | 0.4 | 56, 79% | 0.2 | 3-26, 10% | 0.4 | 1 | 5 |
| Pac12 | 85-60, 59.821 | 0.8 | 54, 90% | 1 | 12-36, 25% | 0.8 | 2.6 | 2 |
| SEC | 103-65, 61 | 1 | 56, 86% | 0.8 | 14-41, 26% | 1 | 2.8 | 1 |
As we can see the SEC has pulled into first place with a great overall win % and better record against currently ranked Coaches Poll opponents. The ACC continues to slide against Top 25 opponents. The Pac12 barely beats out the B10 in overall win percentage and the B12 stays steady in the middle of the pack.
Here is how the teams are looking with an added Michigan State:
| Ranked All Year | Ranked @Time | Top 10 @Time | Ranked Losses | Eye Test | Overall Losses | Conf. Performance | Conf Champ | Conf Losses | |
| Florida State | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | GREAT | 0 | 5th | F | 0 |
| Missouri | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | GOOD | 1 | 1st | UF | 1 |
| South Carolina | 5 | 3 | 3 | 1 | FAIR | 2 | 1st | UF | 2 |
| Ohio State | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | VERY GOOD | 0 | 4th | F | 0 |
| Oklahoma State | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | GOOD | 1 | 3rd | F | 1 |
| Clemson | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | FAIR | 2 | 5th | UF | 2 |
| Alabama | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | GOOD | 1 | 1st | UF | 1 |
| Oregon | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | GOOD | 2 | 2nd | UF | 2 |
| Baylor | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | GOOD | 1 | 3rd | UF | 1 |
| Stanford | 7 | 5 | 2 | 1 | OK | 2 | 2nd | F | 2 |
| Auburn | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | GOOD | 1 | 1st | F | 1 |
| Arizona State | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | GOOD | 2 | 2nd | UF | 1 |
| Michigan State | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | GOOD | 1 | 4th | UF | 0 |
Here's that same chart with the grades:
| Ranked All Year | Ranked @Time | Top 10 @Time | Ranked Losses | Eye Test | Overall Losses | Conf. Performance | Conf Champ | Conf Losses | |
| Florida State | 1.25 | 0.75 | 1.5 | 1 | 1.25 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Missouri | 1.75 | 1.5 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.75 | 0.5 | 2.8 | 0 | 1 |
| South Carolina | 1.75 | 1 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0 | 2.8 | 0 | 0.75 |
| Ohio State | 1.25 | 0.75 | 0.5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.2 | 1 | 1 |
| Oklahoma State | 1.5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.75 | 0.5 | 1.4 | 1 | 0.75 |
| Clemson | 1.25 | 1 | 1.5 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.5 |
| Alabama | 1.75 | 1.25 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.75 | 0.5 | 2.8 | 0 | 1.5 |
| Oregon | 1.5 | 1 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.75 | 0 | 2.6 | 0 | 0.75 |
| Baylor | 1.5 | 0.75 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.75 | 0.5 | 1.4 | 0 | 0.75 |
| Stanford | 2.25 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.25 | 0 | 2.6 | 1 | 0.75 |
| Auburn | 1.75 | 1.5 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.75 | 0.5 | 2.8 | 1 | 1 |
| Arizona State | 2.25 | 1.25 | 1 | 0 | 0.75 | 0 | 2.6 | 0 | 1 |
| Michigan State | 1.75 | 0.75 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.75 | 0.5 | 1.2 | 0 | 1 |
And here are the rankings:
| 1 | Auburn | 18.83 |
| 2 | Stanford | 16.90 |
| 3 | Alabama | 16.76 |
| 4 | Missouri | 15.58 |
| 5 | FSU | 15.19 |
| 6 | South Carolina | 15.14 |
| 7 | Arizona State | 14.21 |
| 8 | Oklahoma St. | 14.16 |
| 9 | Ohio State | 13.43 |
| 10 | Oregon | 12.96 |
| 11 | Baylor | 12.23 |
| 12 | Michigan State | 10.99 |
| 13 | Clemson | 9.44 |
First here's what makes sense:
1. Doesn't Auburn deserve to be 1st? They have come through the toughest conference on the toughest side and continue to win games.
2. Stanford beat another ranked opponent over the weekend and has played the toughest schedule of any team in the country.
3. Alabama only lost to the new #1.
4. South Carolina at #6...they have played a hellacious schedule and have done nothing but won.
5. Ohio State is behind Oklahoma St and Arizona St.
Here's what concerns me:
1. I am not sure if Missouri is really better than FSU. The numbers are telling me they are but my gut tells me something else, but I accounted for that by giving FSU the highest ranking in the eye test category. The ACC is so weak right now and that is the only reason FSU has fell behind. My gut also tells me that if FSU takes care of Duke and Missouri loses to Auburn then FSU moves back ahead.
The conference championship games will not swing the conference performance grades that much so the fates of these teams in my rankings are solely in hands of the teams playing. And isn't it ironic that if within my 4 teams if we did a 1vr4 and 2vr3 that the 1vr4 matchup would be Auburn and Missouri...the SEC Championship game. So wouldn't it be fitting that the winner of the SEC Championship game should play in the national championship game? And if we compare the top 5 of the BCS to my top 5 we see:
1. FSU 1. Auburn
2. Ohio State 2. Stanford
3. Auburn 3. Alabama
4. Alabama 4. Missouri
5. Missouri 5. FSU
Surprisingly enough 4 out of the 5 teams are the same. But it is quickly apparent that the quality of opponents are not considered enough in the Coaches Poll and the BCS: how else does Ohio State get in over Stanford? Who thinks Ohio State could beat Stanford on a neutral field with 4 weeks to prepare? The other glaring difference is where FSU ended up. Now I said at the top that I have no problem with them being #1, in the current system we have, but my rankings put them at 5. I believe they can end up in the Top 4 and give any of the other teams ranked with them a run for their money. So while they may not be deserving of a #1 in my Performance Index, I think they could get there.
That's all for today. I will be back later this week with previews of the B10 Championship, the ACC Championship, the SEC Championship, Pac 12 Championship, and Oklahoma State/Oklahoma. There will be no game of the week, because all of these games are top notch.
No comments:
Post a Comment
Want to call me out on something I've said? I encourage it! Lets have a discussion!