For the past few days there has been a vigorous discussion on my Facebook about who the best teams are. And I am using my blog as an answer to a certain "Jaron", who thinks he knows who the best teams are.
Here is what I said:
Jaron - So would you agree that my point system got it right?
Auburn/Stanford/Bama/Missouri/FSU?
Here is what Jaron had to say:
Aubrey, no I sure do not agree. Auburn and Bama are 1 and 2- if they play 10 games on a
neutral field they split them 5-5. The two best teams overall in college right now. However,
and as much as it pains me to say- Oklahoma State is likely the third best team. I do not
know how you put Stanford in the top 5- must be the beer
talking. They cannot win a road game against a decent team- they play well at home, but
ASU is going to score 40 points and beat them by 10 or more. OSU and MU are 4 and 5 in
no particular order- do not think either could beat
Auburn or Bama. And then FSU at 6- high potential offense that can stand with anyone, but
the play in a conference that is so void of quality they are hindered. Put FSU in the big 12,
pac 12, or the SEC and they are a 2 or
3 loss team this year.
So if I am reading this right, Jaron's top teams would go something like this:
1. Bama/Auburn
2. Bama/Auburn
3. Oklahoma State
4. Ohio State/Missouri
5. Ohio State/Missouri
6. FSU
My top teams look like this:
1. Auburn
2. Stanford
3. Alabama
4. Missouri
5. FSU
6. South Carolina
7. Arizona State
8. Oklahoma State
9. Ohio State
Here is why Jaron is wrong: ;)
Jaron's top teams are based soley on the "eye test"
My top teams have legitimate mathematical proof behind them, of which the "eye test" is only a small part.
Before we go any farther I would like to point out that by bringing up Stanford's road record, Jaron made me consider a valid point: Do I need to include the road records in my Performance Index? And if I did that, what about home records? What about the combined records of the non-conference opponents? And what about the head to head matchups? I have spent the better part of 2 days away from my family plugging in numbers and re-calculating to see what all of these different variables would have on the outcome. Is Oklahoma State a top 3 team? Is Ohio State a top 5? Am I being sucked into an FSU love affair? More on the answers to these questions later.
Lets dig deeper and take Jaron's teams one by one.
First up: Oklahoma State
My friend states that the Cowboys are the 3rd best team in the country. As I stated before I spent a lot of time plugging in different numbers and variations of scoring and no matter what I did, I could not push Oklahoma State into the top 5. Zip, nada, not a sniff. Just not gonna happen. Here's the bottom line on Oklahoma State: They play in the 3rd best conference in America, and that conference is better than the ACC. But there is a HUGE drop-off from the top 2 conferences to the third. Here are the stats:
| B10 | 85-59, 59.028% |
| B12 | 65-51, 56% |
| ACC | 97-71, 57.7% |
| Pac12 | 85-60, 59.821% |
| SEC | 103-65, 61% |
The B12 has the WORST winning percentage of any conference. Not even close to the Pac12 or SEC, and only a percentage point worse than the ACC. So to say that FSU would be a 2 or 3 loss team in the B12 is ludicrous. Here's the rest of the conference performance:
| L in Conf | Rank | v. Top 25 | Rank | Overall | Rank |
| 48, 81% | 0.4 | 3-29, 0.09 | 0.2 | 1.2 | 4 |
| 43, 84% | 0.6 | 4-21, 16% | 0.6 | 1.4 | 3 |
| 56, 79% | 0.2 | 3-26, 10% | 0.4 | 1 | 5 |
| 54, 90% | 1 | 12-36, 25% | 0.8 | 2.6 | 2 |
| 56, 86% | 0.8 | 14-41, 26% | 1 | 2.8 | 1 |
Now the B12 has a high cannibal rate because they only play 3 games out of conference all year, the same can be said for the Pac12. Is this significant? Maybe, but what is says to me is the B12 is an even conference of balanced teams, none too high, none too low, while the ACC is definitely top heavy. In the vrs Top25 record the B12 has a better percentage than the ACC but only 1 more victory. Basically when you add up the totals on how I graded them the B12 is only .4 points better than the ACC. The Pac12 and SEC are in the 2's. Now let's look at Oklahoma State vrs FSU on a one on one basis:
| Ranked All Year | Ranked @Time | Top 10 @Time | Ranked Losses | Eye Test | Overall Losses | Conf. Performance | Conf Champ | Conf Losses | |
| Florida State | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | GREAT | 0 | 5th | F | 0 |
| Oklahoma State | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | VERY GOOD | 1 | 3rd | F | 1 |
Pretty similar, although the Cowboys have had more ranked opponents on their schedule, more ranked opponents at the time of play, but 1 less Top 10 opponent. The really big diffrences is: that one little bitty loss that Oklahoma State had to West Virginia this year. If you are going to come out of a sub-par conference you HAVE to be undefeated. Is their any argument there? I don't think there is. You HAVE to be undefeated. Florida State is and they have looked DAMN good while doing it. Oklahoma State hasn't looked quite as dominate all year.
In conclusion, there is no way Oklahoma State can lay claim to a #3 position. I can't justify them being over FSU. I don't feel like there is a flaw in my systems after changing numbers, entering in road records, home records, etc....I just don't see it, period.
Next up: Ohio State
My good friend Jaron has OSU at either 4 or 5 with Missouri. If changing my grading system did nothing for Oklahoma State, it was absolutely worthless for the Buckeyes. They are firmly planted at #9 on my Performance Index and nothing I did could move them higher. AND I TRIED!!! I deliberately tried to move Ohio State and Oklahoma State up my rankings and I could not do it. The resume just isn't there. Granted, from what we saw above the B10 is better than the ACC in all areas except against other Top 25 teams. So the conference sucks. No one can argue that either. Notice that I am not disputing Jaron's agrument that the ACC is bad, but the B10 isn't much better. Now let's look at how Ohio State looks against FSU and Oklahoma State:
| Ranked All Year | Ranked @Time | Top 10 @Time | Ranked Losses | Eye Test | Overall Losses | Conf. Performance | Conf Champ | Conf Losses | |
| Florida State | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | GREAT | 0 | 5th | F | 0 |
| Oklahoma State | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | VERY GOOD | 1 | 3rd | F | 1 |
| Ohio State | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | VERY GOOD | 0 | 4th | F | 0 |
Here we see what happens when a team is identical to FSU except in Top 10 opponents. Florida State has played some important games. Ohio State played Wisconsin...and Northwestern...and Michigan....Florida State went INTO Clemson and dominated from the opening kick. Ohio State played close games against their best opponents. Florida State dismantled an up and coming Maryland team 63-0. Ohio State struggled against Buffalo. Oklahoma State beat the hell out of Baylor, beat Texas in Austin, and beat Mississippi State. I applaud Ohio State for being undefeated but come on...ya gotta play SOMEBODY!!! Which brings me to another point of contention:
Stanford
Here is where I have some explaining to do. How in the world is a 2 loss team ranked so high? Because they have played the toughest schedule in America and have performed as well as anyone could. Look at this:
Arizona State
@Washington State
Washington
@Utah
UCLA
@Oregon State
Oregon
@USC
WOW! Nothing but ranked teams except Washington State who is up and coming and Utah, who is no slouch. All of Utah's losses were in conference. Auburn and Missouri only won 2 games in the SEC combined last year. Utah played UCLA tough and Oregon tough and happened to catch Stanford in a trap game. It's hard for these kids to "get up" for every single game on schedules like this. Not an excuse, but it's the truth. When you look at this schedule let's also remember that Stanford DOMINATED Arizona State, UCLA, and Oregon State and then found a way to shut-down the Duck's offense. Stanford has not played their A-game all year and I give them one of the WORSE "eye tests" grades of any of the teams I am looking at. But is that poor eye test an indicator of an inconsistent team or a by-product of their schedule? In the case of Florida State though, they have looked awesome no matter who they are playing. So yeah, Stanford has lost 2 games, can we blame them? Does that mean they don't deserve a shot? Does that mean that on a neutral field after a month off that they couldn't give Alabama or Auburn the game of their lives? And as for road games against decent teams; Stanford beat Oregon State pretty handily on the road.
And once again, no matter how I re-adjusted the grading system or what extra stats I added, I could not move Stanford out of the Top 4. Believe me, I tried, they just wouldn't go.
Now here is a moment of truth. Personally I was hurt that Missouri jumped over FSU in my rankings and so while I was playing with the grading numbers I was trying to push FSU ahead. The ONLY way I could was if I factored in a heavily weighted road record and heavily weighted home record within the eye test. But I ultimately felt like by doing this I needed to include the non-conference opponent's records and this pushed Missouri back up. I was even giving Missouri NEGATIVE points for their home loss. Just not happening.
The other moment of truth was trying to move Oklahoma State over South Carolina. NEVER happened. Because once again if you look at the team break down:
| Ranked All Year | Ranked @Time | Top 10 @Time | Ranked Losses | Eye Test | Overall Losses | Conf. Performance | Conf Champ | Conf Losses |
| South Carolina | 5 | 3 | 3 | 1 | FAIR | 2 | 1st | UF | 2 |
| Oklahoma State | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | VERY GOOD | 1 | 3rd | F | 1 |
South Carolina has a schedule with Georgia, Clemson, and Missouri. All of which were TOP 10 at the time of play. The Gamecocks also got a bad eye test grade because of their un-even performance all year. But once again, are they that inconsistent? Or is it a product of their schedule? If the Gamecocks played in the B12 they are probably undefeated.
Nest up Bama/Auburn
I can't argue much with Jaron on this one. I have them highly ranked. They play in the hardest conference on the hardest side. They both only have 1 loss and if you put them on a neutral field the game probably ends in a tie. Neither of them has looked overly impressive all year, but....they have played hellacious schedules. Auburn has played a tougher schedule actually. I think there is more talent on Alabama but from what I saw on Saturday, these two teams are a toss up, although Alabama hasn't had to rely on miracle endings to win 2 of their games this year.
I would like to give a huge thank you to Jaron however, because he has an opinion that I respect so when he detailed his top teams for me it made me think that there was a flaw in my Performance Index and really made me examine it. As I stated before I considered 4 different changes to my gradings:
1. Road records
2. Home records
3. Non conference opponent's collective records
4. Head to head match-ups (which was originally brought to my attention by Aaron)
After countless hours of putting these in under the "Eye Test" grade and the "Strength of Schedule" grade, and by assigning all kinds of crazy grades from whole point differences to having negative points for home losses and splitting these 4 components up between the two grades mentioned the results were minimal. And I finally just came to the conclusion that road/home records, non conference opponents, and head to head match-ups are all what make up the "eye test." When I grade a team on the "eye test" I am stating how their performance has appeared to me all year, all these factors and more combined. For a refresher here is how my eye test grades pan out:
GREAT = 1.25
VERY GOOD = 1
GOOD = .75
FAIR = .5
OK = .25
Ohio State and OK State get VERY GOOD
Stanford gets an OK
South Carolina gets a FAIR
Florida State gets a GREAT
This is the purely subjective part of the grade.
With all of this being said I had the "Eye Test" component weighted at a 1.25 which was lower than the Conference Grade (1.5) and the Strength of Schedule Grade (1.75). After weighing all the facts and thinking of everything that goes into the "Eye Test" I have decided to increase the weight to 1.50. Because should a team pay for a purely subjective analysis? How much control does a team have over that? Like-wise, a team doesn't have a lot of control on how their conference performs during any given season. BUT a team can control their schedule and I will keep that grade at the heaviest weight.
The other change that came about in my Performance Index was in the points I assigned a team depending on how many teams were ranked AT the TIME of play. It is one thing to schedule a whole bunch of ranked teams that may or may not live up to the hype, but it should be rewarded if a team actually PLAYS a lot of ranked teams. If a team is ranked at the time, they are either incredibly hot or living up to the hype. Either way, that is a formidable opponent. So I raised the points given by .5 across the board depending on how many teams were ranked at the time of play.
With these 2 tweaks there were some minor changes in the rankings. First let me show you how all the teams stack up one more time:
| Ranked All Year | Ranked @Time | Top 10 @Time | Ranked Losses | Eye Test | Overall Losses | Conf. Performance | Conf Champ | Conf Losses | |
| Florida State | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | GREAT | 0 | 5th | F | 0 |
| Missouri | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | GOOD | 1 | 1st | UF | 1 |
| South Carolina | 5 | 3 | 3 | 1 | FAIR | 2 | 1st | UF | 2 |
| Ohio State | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | VERY GOOD | 0 | 4th | F | 0 |
| Oklahoma State | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | VERY GOOD | 1 | 3rd | F | 1 |
| Clemson | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | FAIR | 2 | 5th | UF | 2 |
| Alabama | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | GOOD | 1 | 1st | UF | 1 |
| Oregon | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | GOOD | 2 | 2nd | UF | 2 |
| Baylor | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | GOOD | 1 | 3rd | UF | 1 |
| Stanford | 7 | 5 | 2 | 1 | OK | 2 | 2nd | F | 2 |
| Auburn | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | GOOD | 1 | 1st | F | 1 |
| Arizona State | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | GOOD | 2 | 2nd | UF | 1 |
| Michigan State | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | GOOD | 1 | 4th | UF | 0 |
Here is the new ranking:
| 1 | Auburn | 20.01 |
| 2 | Alabama | 17.95 |
| 3 | Stanford | 17.84 |
| 4 | Missouri | 16.76 |
| 5 | FSU | 16.63 |
| 6 | South Carolina | 16.14 |
| 7 | Oklahoma St. | 15.73 |
| 8 | Arizona State | 15.28 |
| 9 | Ohio State | 14.8 |
| 10 | Oregon | 14.03 |
| 11 | Baylor | 13.41 |
| 12 | Michigan State | 12.18 |
| 13 | Clemson | 10.44 |
And there is Alabama taking over #2 from Stanford and Oklahoma State jumping over Arizona State. And oddly enough the gap closes between FSU and Missouri. As an FYI, if FSU wins this weekend and Missouri loses, FSU gets back into the top 4, I ran the projections. Now, the question is, what happens if Missouri and FSU lose and Oklahoma State wins? I didn't run the projection.
Now if you need more proof here is a better break-down of what I call the "Elite 8", although I substituted Ohio State for Arizona State since the discussion is about the Buckeyes and not so much the Sun Devils.
| Strength Schedule | Conference Grade | Eye Test | |
| Auburn | 10.94 | 7.20 | 1.88 |
| Alabama | 9.63 | 6.45 | 1.88 |
| Stanford | 10.94 | 6.53 | 0.38 |
| Missouri | 9.19 | 5.70 | 1.88 |
| FSU | 8.75 | 4.50 | 3.38 |
| South Carolina | 10.06 | 5.33 | 0.75 |
| Oklahoma State | 8.75 | 4.73 | 2.25 |
| Ohio State | 7.00 | 4.80 | 3.00 |
So at a glance it is plainly obvious that Stanford, Auburn, and South Carolina are helped by their schedules AND their conference, but Stanford and South Carolina suffer the worst eye tests of the 8. Ohio State, FSU, and Oklahoma State enjoy great eye tests and the Cowboys fall just short in the Conference Grade and the 1 loss in a weak conference hurts. It should also be noted that the teams that are favored to win their conferences get a boost in the conference grade, and those teams are Auburn, Stanford, FSU, Ohio State, and Oklahoma State. So if you are bored with this blog there are my conference picks without having to read the analysis!
So as much fun as it has been to rebuttle my friend Jaron there are some games being played this weekend: (Oh and Jaron...the Dude abides.)
SEC Championship: Auburn and Missouri
Who saw this coming? If you say you did, you are a goddamn liar. No offense. Two of the worst teams in the SEC last year are the two best this year. What a turn around. Missouri's defense is under-rated, they continue to shut down good offenses. Auburn could be suffering an emotional down game but I think they believe too much. I'll also take the West Champion over the East Champion anyday this year.
Prediction: AUBURN
BCS Impact: If Missouri wins, there is no chance the SEC plays in the National Championship Game if Ohio State wins. Auburn could nudge the Buckeyes out if they dominate and Ohio State skids by.
ACC Championship: Florida State and Duke
Duke.....tell them to get back on the basketball court! Here is a resume booster for FSU. It's a ranked team, in a championship game. FSU has met every challenge this year and I expect Winston to be blowing off frustrations in this game.
Prediction: FSU
BCS Impact: FSU will be playing for a national championship. Unless they lose....and all hell breaks loose.
B10 Championship: Ohio State and Michigan State
As weak as Ohio State's schedule was...Michigan State's was weaker. When the toughest opponents you play are Notre Dame, Michigan, and Nebraska, call me when you find a challenge. And the Spartans even lost 1 of those games. The defense is lauded, but I can't find a decent offense on the schedule. Ohio State needs another ranked opponent so the Coaches made sure Michigan State was there.
Prediction: Ohio State as much as it pains me. I will be pulling for the Spartans in this one so a deserving team ie: Auburn or Missouri get into the top 2.
BCS Impact: Ohio State is the whiny child that finally gets their toy with a victory (thanks for that one Dave). If there is a football god he will smite them and send them packing. I SEEK JUSTICE!!! THIS IS SPARTA!!!
Pac 12 Championship: Stanford and Arizona State
Arizona State shocks the Pac12 and shows up at the end. They have played a ridiculous schedule too. They just didn't play as many Top 10's as Stanford and they lost to 2 of their ranked opponents. Still not sure if the Sun Devils are ready for prime time. They lost to defensive minded Notre Dame, struggled at home against defensive minded Wisconsin, struggled against UCLA, got beat by Stanford, and STRUGGLED AGAINST UTAH!!! There's that Mormon team again....Stanford shows up in the big games and I think they suffer the let down more than most. This is a big game. This is what they beat Oregon for.
Prediction: Stanford
BCS Impact: Probably nothing
B12 Championship: Oklahoma State/Oklahoma and Texas/Baylor
If the Cowboys win, the conference is theirs. If they lose, the conference belongs to the winner of the Texas/Baylor game. I said at the beginning of the season that this conference was WIDE open. And it still is. Oklahoma is not firing on all cylinders like they were earlier in the year and the Cowboys have got it figured out. It's also in Stillwater. In the other game I think Baylor figures it back out against a Texas team that was floating high in the B12 but I doubt can beat the better teams.
Predictions: Oklahoma State and Baylor, division goes to the Cowboys
BCS Impact: Probably nothing, because if Auburn wins and FSU and Ohio State lose I think we could see an Alabama/Auburn rematch.
AAC prediction: UCF will beat some-damn-body in a BCS bowl just like Louisville did last year.
So what's the game of the week?!?!? They are all the game of the week! I will be blogging with re-action to and analysis of all the Championship games Saturday night!!!
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