What to Watch Week 7

It's another great week of college football on tap with more games that have a HIGH impact on the Top 25 then any other week so far, and I can't wait to talk about the games that have me excited! AND because I care about my readers it is ANOTHER double-decker weekend on game of the week!!!

#Rutgers@Louisville(8) on Thursday

Team with the most to lose: Louisville - This is the Cardinals' toughest opponent to date. If they fall here, they fall out of the Top 10 and fall out of any contention for a national title; regardless of the fact that Rutgers ALMOST beat Fresno State, Rutgers BEAT Arkansas, UCF ALMOST beat South Carolina, and Houston is un-defeated with one of the most high powered offenses in the country (on a schedule tougher than Louisville's). The AAC is tough, but not well respected and any team with one loss out of here doesn't have a hoot in hell of making a national championship game. The Cardinals have also lost their top receiver for this game.

Team with the most to gain: Louisville - The gain is in the fact that Louisville wouldn't lose anything. If Rutgers pulls out the win they aren't going to get a sniff for a Top 10 position. If Louisville doesn't rep the AAC, nobody does. Regardless, this is going to be a GREAT game and anyone that wants to see awesome play against two tightly matched teams needs to watch this game. I am not saying this is going to be LSU/Georgia or Stanford/Washington caliber, but it will be up there in the top 10 best games of the year. Both offenses are going to score, but that Rutgers defense has allowed huge points to the best offenses they have played all year and the offense has vulnerabilities. If Louisville wins this and next week against UCF they should have smooth sailing to an un-defeated season if they get past Houston at the end of the year. And remember, Louisville beat Rutgers last year while Bridgewater had a broken wrist.

Top 25 Impact: HIGH with a Rutgers win

Prediction: Louisville

#Missouri@Georgia(7)

Team with the most to lose: Georgia - Can Georgia afford to lose anymore players? Mitchell, Marshall, Scott-Wesley, Bennett, and Gurley. Is there anyone left for Murray to throw the ball to? Ask Tennessee, I'm sure they will tell you. Gurley is technically listed as day-to-day and could be on the field Saturday. But if Georgia doesn't lose anymore players and loses this game, (stop me if you're heard this), the chance for a national championship is probably over. Granted Missouri would probably be ranked and if Georgia were to run the table from here on out and get to the SEC Championship game and win...anything would be possible.

Team with the most to gain: Georgia - And I am only saying Georgia because I don't think a win by the Tigers will mean anything in the long run of the season. The Tigers have ran up the score on weak competition (Vanderbilt not included) and I am not ready to believe in them yet. This game should be high-scoring, but after last week I expect Georgia to come out fired up at home. Missouri is becoming that "Ole Miss" pick from 2 weeks ago, and while there might be an upset in the SEC this week (do I hear any Hog calls?), I don't think it will be in Athens.

Top 25 Impact: HIGH

Prediction: Georgia

#Oklahoma(9)@Texas

Team with the most to lose: Oklahoma - So things change, and so they stay the same. I know I had TCU and Texas picked out as the top teams in the B12 this year and of course, it's Oklahoma that sits on top, (not counting Texas Tech or Baylor). Oklahoma has been a power team like you read about this year (246 yards rushing and 13pts given up a game) and have found a passing game with Blake Bell. The defense is stout as well. But a loss to a team in as much turmoil as Texas and you can put them down to #15 in the polls with LSU, South Carolina, UCLA and Miami ahead of them. This is a game they should win and there is no mercy for losing.

Team...or person with the most to gain: Mack Brown - Can he keep his job one more week? The Longhorns have won 2 in a row but neither have been pretty and one they probably shouldn't have won, but they are 2-0 in conference and win over Oklahoma suddenly puts Texas in the driver seat in the conference. They could then keep it rolling till the last 3 weeks of the season when they have to play Baylor, Texas Tech, and Oklahoma State. They could make the B12 very messy indeed.

Top 25 Impact: High

Prediction: Oklahoma

#Pittsburgh@Virginia Tech(25)

Team with the most to lose: Virginia Tech - With wins against Ga Tech and UNC the Hokies are looking great in conference play. But a lost against the Panthers and they fall behind Pitt AND Miami for first place. The Hokies have been a nice surprise this year and with a win here, they should have no problems staying un-defeated until the game against the Hurricanes, where the winner is more than likely going to the ACC Championship Game against Clemson or Florida State.

Team with the most to gain: Pittsburgh - All they have to do is beat the Hokies and you can insert "Panthers" in place of the word "Hokies" starting with the sentence "The Hokies have been a nice surprise..." I worry about their defense making enough plays though, and the offense will struggle against Va Tech as well.

Top 25 Impact: Medium

Prediction: Virginia Tech

#South Carolina(12)@Arkansas

Team with the most to lose: South Carolina - If Georgia is in jeopardy of losing a national title hopes, South Carolina is standing on the edge of devastation. A second loss in conference and the SEC Championship game is gone, which is the only shot a 2 loss SEC team has of making the National Championship Game. This game is giving me fits, I have been thinking about it since last Saturday night. How does a team like the Gamecocks give up 21 points to Kentucky in the 4th quarter? How does a team like the Gamecocks almost lost to UCF? I have called out the South Carolina defense all year, but the offense is legit...but the team as a whole lacks a killer instinct and is inconsistent. The Cocks do have a Top 50 defense and are only giving up 25.8 points a game while the SEC as a whole is giving up 23.9 a game, but why do they worry me? Why do I feel like the games against Vanderbilt, UCF, and Kentucky were way to close? They offense is in the Top 30 nationally with a Mike Davis led rushing attack that sits at 26th nationally, but they are only scoring 31 points a game while the rest of the SEC is averaging 34. The yards make sense, the points do not. No killer instinct.

Team with the most to gain: Arkansas - This is a program on the rise. They are playing hard and are coming close against marquee opponents, and a win against a Top 15 team like South Carolina is a huge building block for them. But this is also a team that does not respond well to adversity. They lost momentum against Rutgers and they could never stop the Knights from that point on. They had an "iffy" call on a punt against Florida that could have went either way, it went Florida's way and then the defense couldn't cover Patton and the next thing you know Florida had them playing their game, and up to that point the Razorbacks were punching the Gators square in the mouth and had control. The Hogs failed to make the plays they needed to against A&M and they sit at 3-3 for the year. South Carolina is powerful on both sides of the ball but will allow the Hogs to hang around all game. The Hogs have a top 30 defense in yards (at least Top 40 in run, points allowed, and passing) even with a game against A&M on the schedule and a running game that is ranked 24th in the country. I expect South Carolina to load up the box and dare the Hogs to throw. Who will make more plays the stingy Hog defense or the Gamecock offense? The real question is, can the Hogs find the mental toughness to pull it together when South Carolina starts making plays? And can they keep it together to pull it out when it's close in the 4th quarter?

Top 25 Impact: High

Prediction: South Carolina but I would not be at all surprised if the Hogs pull the "not-so-shocking-if-you-have-been-paying-attention-this-year" shocker.

#Florida(17)@LSU(11) GAME OF THE WEEK #1

This marks the 4th time this year the Tigers have been GOW.

Team with the most to lose: LSU - They get the nod over Florida in this category because it would be the Tigers' second loss in conference. And with A&M and Alabama left to play that is not a place the Bayou Bengals want to be. It would be Florida's second loss of the year, but only the first in conference and they still have to play South Carolina and Georgia so the road to the SEC Championship would still be intact. The LSU defense had another dismal week against Miss. St. although they kept the Bulldogs to around their points allowed average, but the word is out on that Tiger secondary, and that word is GO DEEP. (Okay so it's 2 words, my bad.) But the opponent this week, Florida, doesn't exactly throw the ball around, although they showed some explosiveness with Patton against the Razorbacks. I am sure the LSU coaches have devoured the Florida/Arkansas game-tape to see how the Hogs absolutely ABUSED Florida's run defense in the first half, Jeremy Hill on deck Gator boys.

Team with the most to gain: LSU or Florida - How do you decide? Both are trying to get back into the top 10 and stabilize their national championship resume. A win for either team does just that. The stakes couldn't be higher in this one for these two teams. LSU oddly enough is in the Top 50 in pass defense, but the yardage comes in chunks (13.3 yards a completion for Miss St's Russell last week). The Florida defense is one of the best in the entire country, but LSU's offense top 30 in yards and Top 10 in points. Neither unit has faced a unit like the other team will be putting on the field. Who will blink first? The Hogs exposed the Gator run defense last week, but can the LSU offensive line stay inspired all game? Can the LSU DB's keep the Gator receiver's in front of them and get to the Gator quarterback? It's a game of strength versus strength with national title hopes on the line. Who wants it more? Who keeps from making the dumb mistake in crunch time? Have the Gators learned from the melt-down in Miami? Have the Tigers grown up since Georgia?

Top 25 Impact: Very High

Prediction: LSU

All we will need after this game will be a Florida win over Georgia and then it's a real mess.

#Northwestern(18)@Wisconsin

Team with the most to lose: Northwestern - They are down 1 game in the B10 standing already, but only have to catch Michigan, Michigan State, and Nebraska, which are all EXTREMELY winnable for the Wildcats. But if they lose a second conference game to Wisconsin and they have a tough road to climb out of for sure. They will no longer control their destiny and will have to see how the 3 teams ahead of them beat up on each other. I am worried about their mentality after the grueling loss to Ohio State that they could have very well pulled out, but un-timely turnovers spelled their doom. Now they go on the road to a Badger team that has had a week off.

Team with the most to gain: Wisconsin - A win here and they probably take Northwestern's spot in the Top 25 and are right back in the thick of the B10, but will need Ohio State to lose 2 games....At least they would be back in the Top 25. I expect them to be tested, both teams like to run the ball, but Northwestern's passing game looks sharper than Wisconsin's or Ohio State's. This is going to be man football with two running teams and two defenses that have pride but have shown vulnerabilities in stopping the run. It will come down to the quarterback play. Can Northwestern not turn the ball over in crunch time and can Stave play well enough to pull out the win? I doubt either one will work out the way the their respective team would like it to.

Top 25 Impact: Medium

Prediction: Northwestern

#Oregon(2)@Washington(19) GAME OF THE WEEK #2

This is the second time in 2 weeks Washington is in the GOW!!

Team with the most to lose: Washington - With a second loss in Pac12 play they probably fall out of contention for the Pac12 championship and ANY consideration at a National Championship. I said they needed to win one of the games against Stanford and Oregon....I personally would have liked to have had the Stanford win under my belt and NOT have to count on upsetting the Ducks, but hey...I don't pass block for the Huskies.

Team with the most to gain: Washington - They are in second or third place (depending on Oregon St) place on their side of the conference with a win and only need Stanford to lose twice. Stanford still has games against Oregon, UCLA and Utah on the schedule, so that is well within the realm of possibility. Oregon loses out in both the lose and gain category because a loss against Washington isn't the end of the world for them. They still have enough quality opponents left on the schedule and win just keeps them where they are. The Huskies will be the hands down best team that Oregon has played all year and it is on the road. The Huskies defense is for real and will not back down against Mariota and the Huskie offense can score with anybody. The things that worry me however are the Huskies ability to make stupid penalties at stupid times and their pass blocking. They couldn't protect Price a year ago and really struggled against Stanford. Where does the Oregon defensive line rank? They are 30th in the country with 13 sacks this year and Stanford has 14, but 5 of those came against Washington. But what about the running game...ie Sankey for Washington. Oregon is 32nd nationally in run defense with the toughest running opponent being Tennessee who ran for 178 yards and 4.7 yards a rush, and remember, Oregon does not play in a lot of games were teams have the luxury of running the ball. Washington has a real opportunity here to control this game with their defense and their running game which will give them a chance....but if they get into a shoot-out....watch out. So the question is, what kind of game-plan will the Washington coaches come with and can Washington avoid the dumb mistakes that cost them the Stanford game? Is this really Washington's year to step up and be counted among the elite or are they relegated to third fiddle behind Stanford and Oregon? Which in all honesty is still pretty damn good. Another stat for thought: Washington has a Top 3 passing defense.

Top 25 Impact: High

Prediction: Before I made this pick I had to consult with my Washington insider JG. So before I get to the pickI am going to share the insight in these revealing text messages:
Me: What's the word on the street about the Washington/Oregon game?
JG: That you're a jackass.

You just can't buy that kind of insight.

But this game comes down to a couple factors:
1. Washington cannot get into a shoot-out and they are only 1 bad penalty or drive away from getting down multiple scores and getting into that type of situation
2. The home stadium will not be completely Washington's
3. Washington special teams must play better
4. Speed kills and wins football games
What does all of that mean?
OREGON 

#Stanford(5)@Utah

Team with the most to lose: Stanford - They are in the meat of their Pac12 schedule. After Utah it's UCLA, then Oregon State, then Oregon. There are 1-2 losses within this 4 game stretch just waiting for the Cardinal. And if they get caught looking ahead to UCLA it could be 3 losses and complete devastation for their national title hopes.

Team with the most to gain: Utah - They need a Pac12 victory in the worst way in order to stay in the race for the championship. They cannot lose another conference game period. They will play the Cardinal tough on defense, particularly against the run, but I wonder if the Ute offense can make enough plays? Stanford may be on that emotional down turn that we have seen disrupt Alabama last year, and almost get Georgia this year. Utah needs to take advantage early at home. They have the perfect "trap" game set for Stanford, but do they have the talent to spring it?

Top 25 Impact: High with a Utah win

Prediction: Stanford

#California@UCLA

Team with the most to gain/lose: UCLA - Talk about a trap. After Cal, UCLA has road games to Stanford and Oregon up next. They need to win 1 out of 2 to keep any national championship hopes alive, but 2 losses and they are probably still the favorites to win their side of the conference. UCLA had a week off to prepare for this game and NOT look ahead so we will see where their minds are. Cal will throw the ball and UCLA has the 29th best pass defense in the country. I expect pure talent to win out in this game.

Top 25 Impact: Medium to high

Prediction: UCLA

That's it for now! A lot of close games this week, I am scared for my prediction percentage this week!! But here is what is due out blog-wise before next Wednesday:
1. Part 4 - Whatever Happened to Defense in the SEC?
2. Games of the Week Analysis on Saturday night and Coaches Top 10 prediction - Can I make it 3 in a row??
3. A Mid-Season "Teams to Watch" update - who is primed to make a run in the second half? And who was I wrong about? Also - I have inadvertently ignored Baylor for far too long! Other teams on the bubble coming up: Virginia Tech, UCF, Michigan State, Houston, Auburn - do they make the cut? Teams on the bubble about to pop: Utah, Ole Miss, UNC, Georgia Tech, Vanderbilt, Rutgers - do they get cut?

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