The BCS is coming...How's YOUR Strength of Schedule?

First things first: the game breakdowns.

#LSU@Florida

It's amazing how things "change" but always seem the same. Such was the case in Baton Rogue yesterday. LSU's high powered offense went up against Florida's shut-down defense and we got an old fashioned, "I'm going to bludgeon you to death till you die" old school SEC football game. I loved it. One of the keys I notated before the game started was that I wanted to see LSU utilize the blitz more in order to create pressure and help out the young DB's. I know that's crazy, because in years past LSU merely needed to rush 4 to create pressure. But here's the breakdown:

The Good for LSU
1. They used the blitz to create pressure and take pressure off of that defensive secondary.
I counted 10 blitzes and every blitz created a positive play for the defense. There were 6 incompletions, 2 sacks, 2 ALMOST INT's, 8 pressures, and 1 flush out. And the completed passes went short and LSU wrapped up the runner with good tackling. I had NO LSU DB's with their names in my notes except for J. Mills for his game ending sack.
2. The 4 man rush for LSU was good too and generated 3 pressures and a sack
3. Danielle Hunter had 7 total tackles for LSU and 2 balls tipped. He sniffed out 2 screen plays for Florida and broke both of them up. Ferguson and Johnson also made impact plays on the day. I haven't seen LSU live in a backfield like that in any game I have seen from them this year. LSU only gave up 2.8 yards a rushing attempt.
4. Jeremy Hill - 19 rushes for 121 yards. LSU had 175 yards on the ground against a Florida D that only allowed 65 yards a game up to that point. SOMEONE watched the Arkansas tape and realized that without Dominique Easley Florida ain't what they used to be.
5. LSU lives on 3rd down. They are the #3 3rd down conversion team in the country at 58% and against Florida they were 5 out of 9 for 56%, and Florida's D had only allowed a 23% 3rd down conversion rate.

The Bad for LSU
1. Penalties - It was a clean game for LSU mostly...until the 4th quarter. Then we had Rasco rip the helmet off of Tyler Murphy for 15 yards and Florida got a field goal on that drive. The dumb stuff has to stop. LSU ended up with 5 penalties for 42 yards.
2. Officiating - Is there an un-written rule that a ref can't call holding on Florida? They were mauling LSU defenders ALL day. I even made this note in my game notes and on the very next Florida play they called holding because the offensive player tackled the DB for a block.
3. Where were all the LSU fans that supposedly bought tickets?

The Good for Florida
1. Hargreaves is a true freshman playing cornerback and he is as good as it gets. He hung with Landry or Beckham all day. Granted, LSU was not trying to throw the ball, but when they did Hargreaves made it tough. A shut down corner for sure.
2. Time of possession - Florida owned this stat by almost 10 minutes. A great testament to how the LSU defense kept bending but never breaking.
3. Florida's second half defense was stifling. If a team is going to get to Florida they need to to do it in the first half. In the third quarter LSU only ran 8 plays with 2 punts and only gained 127 of their 327 yards in the second half
4. Fourth down conversions - Florida was 3 for 4 with a fake punt thrown in there. The one miss was the one that really hurt though.

The Bad for Florida
1. Third down conversions on both sides of the ball. Florida was 6 of 17 on third down for 35% and we already talked about the defense not living up to the hype.
2. The defense played well but didn't make any big plays. Purifoy didn't get his name in my notes except for a pass interference call on a LSU scoring drive
3. Penalties - Florida had 8 for 72 including 2 big ones on LSU's 2nd and 4th drives of the game that kept LSU on the field, oh and by the way, LSU scored their only touchdowns of the game on those 2 drives. Then late in the game 2 false start penalties hurt Florida when they were trying to get the score close on their final drive.

The bottom line is LSU came in with a game plan to run the ball on Florida...something that was unthinkable a couple weeks ago. But after Florida gave up good yards to the Hogs, LSU obviously saw something they could take advantage of and they did. The Tiger defense made some adjustments from previous games I have seen and didn't allow Florida's receivers to get up top. Granted it was a against Florida...but as bad as the LSU DB's have been I think this can count for an LSU defensive victory. After being stuffed for the entire 3rd quarter LSU needed to put together a drive desperately in the 4th and I notated before that drive started that LSU needed to keep their defense off the field and at least put 3 points on the board. And that's exactly what the Tigers did. This was a slug-fest from the word "go" and these two teams left it all out on the field. I leave this game with 2 quotes from the Hatter at halftime when asked about his balanced offense and his team's defensive play:
"That's our offense too...you know...We want to run the football..it appears to us a little bit more down-hill at'em and if they have to step up and stop the rush we feel like be able to throw the football so that's still the plan." - Huh? What's that even mean?
"This is what we expect, make it hard on them to run the football...put them in you know definable long yardage situations and then rush the passer."
Untypically definable long yardage situations is all I have to say to that.

#Oregon@Washington
LSU and Florida had a combined 17 possessions; Oregon and Washington had a combined 25. This was another great slug-fest, just done Pac12 style. Both teams played hard and showed why they are so highly ranked.

I spoke about the margin of error for Washington being extremely small so here's how they did:
Penalties - When the score was 28-17 Oregon, the Huskies had only committed 1 penalty for 15 yards which was a HUGE improvement from the Stanford game. Sadly, Washington ended the game with 5 penalties for 54 yards, with most of those coming in the 4th quarter.
Turnovers - Washington had 2 and they were killers. The first one came on Washington's 4th drive; they were moving the ball, the score was 7-7 and Sankey fumbled. Oregon took the next possession and made it 14-7. The second turnover came when it was 21-7 Oregon, Washington was driving again and even got a pass interference penalty for a first down...then Price threw a pick while going deep and the half-time score was 21-7. Even if Washington only got field goals out of those drives it would have been 21-13 or maybe Oregon doesn't score that touchdown. The fact is, you can't have empty possessions against Oregon; you cannot continue to give them chances to score when you don't.
Pass protection - This was another failure for the offensive line. Price was eluding people all day and running around again. I believe the final line was 10 hits, 14 hurries, and 4 sacks for Oregon's defense. The pass rush was so good it forced at least 3-4 in-completions from Price when there WAS NO rush.

I also called out Washington being able to control this game with the running game, here's how that turned out: (Note that I am counting quarterback scrambles due to pressure as a pass play since it was originally called a pass play before the pass protection broke down)
On Washington's scoring drives they ran the ball 17 times and threw 19 times. Pretty balanced there.
On Washington's non-scoring drives they ran 25 times and threw 22 times. So by looking at this it would seem Washington actually did better throwing the ball, when Price was held up-right. Officially Washington ran the ball 10 more times then they threw it. The only time I really felt the running game was a factor was on the 10th Huskie drive when they scored to make it 31-24. Washington ran it 6 out of 8 times and HUGE holes were opening up for Sankey. He had a 25 yard TD run and was virtually un-touched. On the next drive after it was 38-24, there was still 13 minutes to go on the clock and Washington threw it 5 out of 7 times and failed to score and the game was essentially over from there. I felt the Oregon D was wearing down and Washington had a really good chance to run the ball down their throats and still have enough time for a defensive stop and be able to score again.

Now did anything go good for Washington? Yes, the defense played extremely hard and made some really good plays on Mariota in the back-field while keeping Washington in this game early. The consistent chunks of yardage for the Ducks didn't start coming till late in the second half. But Oregon is simply too much. As good as the defense was they still gave up 366 yards passing and 265 rushing.

As for Oregon, I am a believer in Mariota. Where Johnny Manziel is kind of a frenzied action type of quarterback, Mariota is as smooth as a baby's buttocks. He just glides through defenses with that superior speed, he can make all the throws, and would have had an even better completion percentage if Oregon hadn't dropped the 3 or 4 that they did. Oregon's defense was tough, especially in the first half and kept the pressure on Price all game long. The Ducks owned time of possession with 33:45 compared to Washington's 26:15. You can't leave a defense on the field that long against the Ducks. Oregon made way to many penalties with 9 for 86 yards and kept some Washington drives alive. Huff had 6 catches for 107 yards and a touchdown and Addison had 8 catches for 157 yards and 2 touchdowns. The Oregon passing game lived across the middle in the first half and then stretched the Huskies outside on the edges in the second half. All in all the Ducks showed why they are number 2 in the country, they know who they are, they know what they are trying to do in every situation, and they play hard.

Other Top 25 Action:

South Carolina@Arkansas - The Hogs were up 7-0. Then it was 7-3. Then Allen threw a pick deep in his own territory and the Gamecocks scored from 6 yards out. 10-7. Then the Hogs went 3 and out. Then South Carolina rolled off another 42 points for a total of 52 un-answered. All it takes is one bad play for the Hogs to lose complete control.

Stanford@Utah - Why oh why did I pick Stanford? I smelled upset from all the way in Colorado. Stanford had 2 fumbles, a missed field goal and gave up a 99 yard drive. I keep saying Utah is tough and they finally backed me up. Bittersweet.

Texas Tech - They did everything they could to try to keep Iowa State in this game. They gave up a special teams touchdown, missed a field goal, threw an interception late on the wrong side of the field, and eventually won the game. Another tough one for the Cyclones.

Northwestern@Wisconsin - The game started like I thought it would with Wisconsin taking a lead early and I just knew Northwestern was going to wake up. Apparantly they took sleeping pills. 8 out of 15 drives for the Wildcats were 3 and out and they only gained 44 yards rushing on 25 attempts. Wisconsin ran for 286 yards and held the ball for 38 minutes. Stave throws too many interceptions though.

Clemson - Almost got caught looking ahead to the Game of the Week next week against the Seminoles, but pulled it out.

Virginia Tech - Defense was too much for Pitt. The Panthers averaged .9 yards a carry.

Georgia - The Walking Dead is filmed in Georgia. I felt like that's what I was watching for most of this game. First of all lets congratulate Georgia on great second half coaching. They made the adjustments, Georgia was making plays and this game got to 28-20. Then the back-up quarterback for Missouri came in and put this game away. Only against Georgia. After the score was 28-20 the Georgia defense looked like it ran out of gas completely. The touchdown pass to make it 34-20 was embarrassing, the Georgia DB Wiggins was ALL OVER the Missouri receiver and the ball was still caught for a touchdown. Then with the game on the line, quarterback Aaron Murray being the senior SEC quarterback that he is: throws 2 picks to seal the game. I realize that he didn't have his usual cast of characters around him, but the throws were BAD and had nothing to do with who was out there. Maybe he can take over for Tony Romo in the NFL.

Oklahoma/Texas - "In a conference that is full of questions and transitions this year, Texas looks like the lone team that is standing steady, and that just might be enough. They have been improving the past 3 years and last year they only lost to TCU (7 points), West Virginia (3 points), Kansas State, and Oklahoma. Granted the losses against WV and TCU cannot happen this year, but neither can losses against KState or Oklahoma."
"This should be Texas' conference to win this year."
These are statements I made about Texas back in August. How quickly things can be forgotten. Texas is unbeaten in conference play so far this year and just knocked off a "Top 10" Oklahoma Sooners team. The only losses Texas has are to BYU and to Ole Miss. Could you see BYU or Ole Miss beating just about everyone else in the B12? Yeah, I can too. Texas is till who I thought they were and the B12 is too. But how did Texas pull this game out? Everyone KNEW this was going to be a blow-out. Lets look at 3rd downs:
Texas converts 40% of their offensive 3rd downs on the year. They were 13-20 against the Sooners. The Sooners only allow 27% 3rd down conversion on defense.
Oklahoma converts 42% of their 3rd downs, UT isn't even ranked in the top 50 nationally for 3rd down defense. The Sooners only converted 2 out of 13 third downs.
Lets look at the run game:
Texas ran for 255 yards against the Sooners. That's more than double the OK season average.
Lets look at sustained drives:
5 out of 12 Sooner drives were 3 and out. Only 2 out of 12 for Texas.
Lets look at Blake Bell:
Blake Bell after setting the world on fire is only 22 of 57 for 285 yards in the last 2 games.

Texas A&M - Aggies got a scare, Manziel got a knee brace, and Ole Miss got their 3rd straight loss. LSU on deck for the Rebels.

Louisville - I would take them over any 1 loss B10 team and almost any 1 loss B12 team at this point. Bridgewater would carve up Ohio State's passing defense, and that Louisville defense looks pretty stout - at least better than anything in the B12.

Other Teams from the Watch List

Georgia Tech - 2 turnovers, 10 penalties for 75 yards, 10 for 23 passing, and a pick 6 given up. They lost.

Rugers - Gary Nova has played some really shitty games this year.

Prediction Recap: I only went 6 out of 10 this week. Not my worst week, but not the best either. That brings my season average to: 28-11 72%

Starting this week I will no longer predict the Coaches Poll - YAY!!! The BCS is right around the corner and I know ESPN is running their first BCS selection show BEFORE the first BCS selections....I know, right? So instead of predicting the Coaches Top 10 I have decided to take a look at how the BCS should be impacting the Top 10. These are not predictions, ESPN is doing that, these are just observations.

Alabama:
Quality Teams Played: 3 - Virginia Tech, A&M, Ole Miss. Record 3-0
Quality Teams Left: LSU, Auburn
Current or Former Top 25 in schedule: 4
Current or Former Top 10: 2
Teams that could significantly impact Bama's rankings: Virginia Tech, Ole Miss, Auburn
BCS situation for Bama: Decent.
The Tide doesn't play the toughest of schedules and if Virginia Tech stumbles down the stretch, Ole Miss continues to lose, and if Auburn fails to get ranked the schedule only gets weaker. Alabama still has the inside shot of an SEC Championship and with that and what they have done, they should have no problems staying at the top. But if they lose and if the teams I mentioned start fading, look out....

Oregon:
Quality Teams Played: Washington. Record 1-0
Quality Teams Left: UCLA, Stanford, Utah, Arizona, Oregon State
Current or Former Top 25 in schedule: 4
Current for Former Top 10: 1
Teams that could significantly impact Ducks' rankings: Utah, Arizona, Oregon State
BCS situation: Decent
The Ducks are in the same boat as Alabama. If they win out, they are in the National Championship game. However, if they lose and if Oregon State, Utah, and Arizona continue to lose or start to lose shine, it could get sticky.

Ohio State:
Quality Teams Played: Wisconsin, Northwestern. Record 2-0
Quality Teams Left: Michigan
Current or Former Top 25 in schedule: 3
Current or Former Top 10: NONE
Teams that could significantly impact Buckeyes' rankings: Wisconsin, Northwestern, Michigan
BCS situation: Bad
They will take a hit when the BCS comes out. Yes they are un-defeated but WHO HAVE THEY PLAYED? None of the Top 25 teams they have played are on the same caliber as Oregon or Alabama or most of the other teams' opponents we are going to look at. An Ohio State loss and the season is done for, and with the inconsistent play of their top 3 opponents the computers don't have a whole lot to like either.

Clemson:
Quality Teams Played: Georgia. Record 1-0
Quality Teams Left: FSU, Maryland, South Carolina
Current or Former Top 25 in schedule: 3
Current or Former Top 10: 3
Teams that could significantly impact Tigers' rankings: Maryland, Georgia
BCS situation: Decent to Bad
Clemson needs to keep winning and if they lose a game it has to be to FSU or South Carolina. If they lose to FSU though they probably don't get to the ACC Championship game and that could hurt. Maryland has flashed into the picture this year and then got dumped by FSU. Where do the Terps go from here? Do they become resume boosters or resume killers? And what happens if Georgia can't get healthy and keeps losing? They drag Clemson down with them.

Stanford:
Quality Teams Played: Washington, Utah. Record 1-1
Quality Teams Left: UCLA, Oregon State, Oregon, Notre Dame
Current or Former Top 25 in schedule: 5
Current or Former Top 10: 1
Teams that could significantly impact Tigers' rankings: Oregon State, Notre Dame, Utah
BCS situation: Decent to Good
Stanford has a loaded schedule which will only help. Stanford has a loaded scheduled which will only help IF Utah keeps winning, Oregon State keeps winning, and Notre Dame starts winning. If those 3 fall by the way side Stanford's resume goes from premier to standard. The Cardinal is already 1-1 against quality teams but can erase that with wins against the Quality Teams left. It would have been better if they had taken that quality loss against Oregon or UCLA so they don't have to rely on the Utes winning ability. But if they win out and win the Pac12 championship game they probably go to the National Championship.

Florida State
Quality Teams Played: Maryland. Record 1-0
Quality Teams Left: Clemson, Miami, Florida
Current or Former Top 25 in schedule: 3
Current or Former Top 10: 1
Teams that could significantly impact Seminoles' rankings: Maryland
BCS situation: Decent to Bad
FSU CANNOT lose a game. With only Maryland on the resume so far it is far from solid ground that the Noles are standing on. But if they beat Clemson, Miami, Florida, and the ACC Championship opponent I think they make a realistic case to be considered for a National Championship. But the resume isn't as good as Clemson or Oregon or Alabama or Stanford. A win against the Tigers solves that one but they need losses from Alabama, Oregon, or Stanford to get a sniff.

Georgia
Quality Teams Played: Clemson, South Carolina, LSU, Missouri. Record 2-2
Quality Teams Left: Florida, Auburn
Current or Former Top 25 in schedule: 5
Current or Former Top 10: 4
Teams that could significantly impact Dogs' rankings: Auburn, Missouri
BCS situation: Decent to Good
Georgia had played a hellacious schedule which should keep them in the Top 10 in the BCS but one more loss and it won't matter. Georgia has an up hill climb to get to the SEC Championship game, but if they get there, and IF they win, because of their schedule they may have a shot at being a 2 loss team in a National Championship Game. A lot of big "IFs" though. They are also dependent on Missouri and Auburn. If Missouri goes south after the Franklin injury that loss will kill the resume and any chance the Dogs have with it. Auburn also will play a role, can they get ranked or not?

Louisville
Quality Teams Played: Rutgers. Record 1-0
Quality Teams Left: Houston, UCF
Current or Former Top 25 in schedule: NONE
Current or Former Top 10: NONE
Teams that could significantly impact Cardinals' rankings: Houston, UCF, Rutgers
BCS Situation: Bad
They are done once the computers take over. There is virtually nothing on the schedule and even going un-defeated may not mean anything. If Houston and UCF could somehow find their way into the Top 25 it could get slightly interesting, particularly if all the teams ahead of Louisville start losing. A long shot at best to get to the National Championship or even the Top 5.

Texas A&M
Quality Teams Played: Alabama, Ole Miss. Record 1-1
Quality Teams Left: LSU, Auburn, Missouri
Current or Former Top 25 in schedule: 4
Current or Former Top 10: 2
Teams that could significantly impact Aggies' rankings: Auburn, Ole Miss, Missouri
BCS Situation: Decent to Bad
A&M needs to win out, hope Ole Miss, Missouri, and Auburn beat everyone but them and they need Alabama to lose a game late in the year. The Aggies may end up in a situation where they could finish 2nd in the SEC West but ranked higher than Alabama. They have the tougher schedule, but that is reliant on Ole Miss, Missouri, and Auburn. Not a great situation to be in, but they have an outside shot.

Oklahoma
Quality Teams Played: Notre Dame, TCU, Texas. Record 2-1
Quality Teams Left: Texas Tech, Baylor, Oklahoma State
Current or Former Top 25 in schedule: 6
Current or Former Top 10: NONE
Teams that could significantly impact Sooners' rankings: everyone but Baylor
BCS Situation: Bad
TCU is a stretch as a quality opponent and so is Notre Dame. Hell just about everyone is. Baylor should be good for a resume builder all year though. A B12 team with a loss probably doesn't have enough clout to get into the big game this year, so the Sooners may already be out of it. But if they win out and get a LOT of help from the teams above them anything is possible. They must win out and win the B12 however.

LSU
Quality Teams Played: TCU, Auburn, Georgia, Florida. Record 3-1
Quality Teams Left: Ole Miss, Alabama, A&M
Current or Former Top 25 in schedule: 6
Current or Former Top 10: 5
Teams that could significantly impact Tigers' rankings: TCU, Auburn, Ole Miss
BCS Situation: Good to Great
LSU probably has the best shot of any team in the Top 10 or outside of the Top 10 to make it to the national championship game. The schedule has been brutal and they STILL have Alabama and A&m to play. Stop me if you have heard this one, but the Alabama/LSU game will probably determine who goes to the National Championship from the SEC. The resume could take some hits depending on what TCU does from here, along with Ole Miss and Auburn. But LSU is in position to take the biggest leaps once the computers take over. That loss to Georgia could hurt if the Dogs continue to fall though.

UCLA
Quality Teams Played: Nebraska, Utah. Record 2-0
Quality Teams Left: Stanford, Oregon, Arizona, Washington, Arizona State
Current or Former Top 25 in schedule: 5
Current or Former Top 10: 2
Teams that could significantly impact Bruins' rankings: Utah, Arizona, Arizona State
BCS Situation: Good to Great
Like LSU the Bruins have the entire season in front of them. If they win out and are Pac12 champs, they are in the National Championship game with that resume. A loss to Oregon wouldn't hurt that bad as long as Arizona State, Utah, and Arizona keep winning and playing good ball. If Utah starts losing a loss to Stanford could be bad. But they, like LSU could be in the Top 10 when the first BCS rolls out. They are in control of their destiny from here.

Baylor
Quality Teams Played: NONE
Quality Teams Left: Oklahoma, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, TCU, Texas
Current or Former Top 25 in schedule: 5
Current or Former Top 10: NONE
Teams that could significantly impact Bear's rankings: ALL
BCS Situation: Decent to Good
Here is another team with the entire season ahead of them. If they win out and become B12 champs they could challenge for a number 1 or 2 spot, IF they get some losses from some teams ahead of them. The schedule is decent but they are all middle of the road teams, unlike what some of the SEC or Pac12 teams are playing. Baylor can make some huge strides but need help from inside and outside their conference.

South Carolina
Quality Teams Played: Georgia, UCF. Record 2-0
Quality Teams Left: Missouri, Florida, Clemson
Current or Former Top 25 in schedule: 4
Current or Former Top 10: 3
Teams that could significantly impact Gamecocks' rankings: Missouri, Georgia
BCS Situaion: Decent
The reasons I have included South Carolina is because of who they have yet to play, and if they go to the SEC Championship Game with 1 loss and win they are right where they want to be. They control their destiny and can get there. However, if Missouri turns out to be a fluke and Georgia falls apart, the resume takes some serious hits, and the resume isn't as strong as some of their SEC brothers.

Front runners for a National Championship: Alabama, Oregon
Next teams in line: Clemson, Stanford, UCLA, LSU
Teams that will make it interesting; A&M, Baylor, South Carolina
Teams that need help: Florida State, Oklahoma, Georgia, Ohio State
Teams that are probably out: Louisville

Thanks for reading! A always your comments are welcome below! This is when the real debate starts.
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I will be back later today with part 4 of "Whatever Happened to Defense in the SEC?"