In preparation for the upcoming season I thought it might be appropriate to talk about a group of teams I feel need some attention this year. These are the "BIG 12", some are over-ranked, some are going to make some serious noise, but all of them bare a second look. At the end of the blog I will also tell who I think is the biggest mystery going into this season and who the most over-ranked teams are.
Northwestern
Records for the last 3 years
2010: 7-6
2011: 6-7
2012: 10-3
Reasons to be optimistic:
Northwestern only lost to Nebraska, Penn St, and Michigan and by very marginal scores. They were a handful of plays from being undefeated. But that's what separates the good teams from the elite teams, right? They also have 15 returning starters on both sides of the ball and had the 3rd best offense in the league last year.
Reasons to be doubtful:
The schedule does not do Northwestern any favors, they have to take trips to Madison and Lincoln, still host Michigan and Syracuse, and they play B10 darling Ohio State. One of the tougher schedules for a B10 team.
Bottom line: Northwestern could let the Ohio State game slip and still win their side of the division if they beat Nebraska and Michigan. This team is poised to do some damage, but they are not going to be able to surprise anyone this year. But I would not be shocked to see them in the B10 Title Game and then perhaps...just perhaps....The Rose Bowl at the end of the year.
Wisconsin
Records for the last 3 years
2010: 11-2
2011: 11-3
2012: 8-6
Reasons to be optimistic:
The Badgers also return a good chunk of last year's team with 14 coming back, and we can only hope they improved. The running backs will still be great and the defense should keep them in games. The Badger defense has only given up an average of 20 points for the past 3 years. One of the biggest reasons for hope is new coach Gary Anderson. He seems to be fitting in well, he has some talent to work with, and will keep the same no nonsense approach we all love from Wisconsin. The schedule is extremely favorable except for trips to Arizona St and Ohio St and a home game against Northwestern that should be a challenge.
Reasons to be doubtful:
If you look at the schedule last year Wisconsin beat Anderson's Utah St team and Nebraska for the only real feathers in the Badger cap. They lost to Ohio St, Michigan St, Penn St, Oregon St, and Nebraska in the regular season; not what we are used to seeing from Wisconsin. They have a struggle at the QB position right now, the spin doctors from Madison will say that both of them won games last year, but those wins only added up to 8. The other reason to be doubtful is...Gary Anderson. Yes, I know he "turned Utah St around" but he turned it around in the Mountain West where he still lost games to Bosie St, Oklahoma, Auburn, AND Wisconsin in the last 3 years. Who did Utah St beat last year to make that 11 win record impressive? It's okay if you don't know, because I don't either.
Bottom line:
This is a team in transition. If Anderson's record showed anything at Utah St, it's that he can recruit. Well this is his first year at Wisconsin and these are not his players. He has some extremely talented players, but not his players. Although he currently has the #33 ranked class of freshman incoming as of right now. The Wisconsin offense fell to 29 points a game last year after they averaged over 40 in 2011 and 2010. Do not get fooled by anyone beating the Wisconsin drum this year. They only made it to the Rose Bowl last year because someone had to go from the B10, but with Ohio St off sanctions and an improving Michigan and Northwestern, there's not enough room at the top.
Oregon State
Records for the last 3 years
2010: 5-7
2011: 3-9
2012: 9-4
Reasons to be optimistic:
Unlike Wisconsin, Oregon St has 2 quarterbacks that put up some stats, and they have 16 returning starters. Their schedule is very similar to last year with home games against Stanford, USC, and Washington, but they must go to Oregon. In Stanford last year they almost pulled off the upset.
Reasons to be doubtful:
They play on the wrong side of the conference with Oregon AND Stanford looming above them. They will need to beat at least 1 if not both in order to get major national recognition. The expectations are also there for the Beavers this year. They will not be sneaking up on anyone and we will see how they hold up under the pressure.
Bottom line:
Oregon State made a huge jump from 3-9 to 9-4 and I personally don't trust these kind of huge improvements. I expect somewhat of a let down this year, in one of those "this might actually be a better team than last year but with a worse record" type of scenarios. Make no mistake that Oregon State is on the way up, but sometimes you have take a step back in order to take 2 steps forward. I expect a decent bowl game out of this team this year, but they and the next two teams on the list, need to start winning these bowl games for the Pac12 to make the leap from what I called the 2nd worst conference in America, to potentially being the 2nd BEST conference in America.
Washington
Records for past 3 years
2010: 7-6
2011: 7-6
2012: 7-6
Reasons to be optimistic:
You can't ONLY win 7 games a year for the rest of eternity can you? It has to end sometime. This team has been knocking on the door for a while. The offensive line was banged up for most of last year and if they can get healthy it can only help. They also notched a HUGE win against Stanford last year. This is a team that can win the big game. And if you look at the last few recruiting classes Washington is no slouch. In 2011 the incoming class ranked 24th in the nation, in 2012 it was 23rd, and 2013 it is #19.
Reasons to be doubtful
Even with those recruiting classes Washington is still failing to put it together. In the same year they beat Stanford, they lost to Washington State...You can't do that and be a major player! The quarterback play is also up and down the past 2 years, although the struggles last year can partly be blamed on the offensive line. They also play on the wrong side of the Pac12 conference and have to play Stanford, Oregon, and Oregon State. This year they host Boise State and travel to UCLA.
Bottom line:
They should probably be better than 3 consecutive 7-6's. We need some consistency here, and with a schedule like they have that might be tough. They lost to Boise State in their bowl game last year and that has to stop as well. They have the talent, they have the schedule to make a name for themselves, but can they finally put it all together? It's hard to put much faith into a team that consistently is in-consistent, but this might be their year if Oregon or Stanford falter, if they can get past Oregon State. I don't expect them to be at the top, but a top mid-level bowl and a win will go a long way to helping the Pac12 as a whole. Don't let this team surprise you if they put it together.
UCLA
Records for the past 3 years
2010: 4-8
2011: 6-8
2012: 9-5
Reasons to be optimistic:
In 2012 they had the #19th ranked recruiting class which should help with losing 6 of their defensive starters. They also play on the OTHER side of the Pac12 which means they should be in the Pac12 title game unless they forfeit. There is a lot of excitement around this team and they definitely had a year to build upon. And a 3 point loss against Stanford in the re-match is nothing to be upset about.
Reasons to be doubtful:
UCLA went 9-5 last year and their biggest wins were against USC and Nebraska. Are you writing home to your mother about that? Didn't think so. They lost to Oregon State, Stanford twice, Baylor in the bowl game, and Cal. The losses to teams like Cal must stop, and if they are truly going to step up and bolster the Pac12 and themselves, they are going to have to beat the B12 or SEC if they should draw them again in a bowl. Their stud running back Jonathan Franklin is gone and so are 6 starters from their defense. The other major road block can be the schedule: Nebraska, Stanford, Oregon, and USC are all up again, but this time UCLA is on the road in all of those games. They also host Washington.
Bottom line:
UCLA is on the way up and will be helped by playing on the soft side of the Pac12. They have the schedule to prove themselves and will be worth every bit of praise nationally if they start winning the tough ones, ie: Stanford and/or Oregon. If they can play well on the road, I expect them to be at least 3-2 in the games I spoke about, which might be the only 2 losses they have all year. They are assured a spot in the Pac12 title game and once there; anything could happen, and if they make it to the Rose Bowl watch out, because chances are good that there will be no B12 or SEC team waiting there.
Ole Miss
Records for the past 3 years:
2010: 4-8
2011: 2-10
2012: 7-6
Reasons to be optimistic:
This is a team with true excitement, momentum, and returning almost everyone from a year ago. They had the #25 recruiting class in 2011 and the #5 recruiting class in 2013, with the number one recruit stolen from Alabama and LSU. This team was 3-5 in the SEC with losses against LSU (only 6 points), Vanderbilt (1 point), Georgia (not even close), Texas A&M (3 points), and Alabama. Who doesn't lose to 4 out of those 5 teams? And they were very close in couple of them.
Reasons to be doubtful:
No one in the SEC will be taking this team lightly this year. The expectations are also rising and I think last year was a case of too much too soon. They still have to play A&M, Alabama, LSU and Vanderbilt this year, as well as play Texas on the road and Mississippi State on the road. It's a hard climb up-hill in the SEC. If Ole Miss played in any other conference they might have a chance to win it.
Bottom line:
Ole Miss is better than last year. Their record will not show it. But another bowl berth and a win (against any other conference) is probably still a possibility. There will be growing pains for a team still learning how to win and deal with expectations. This is not their year, but next year I shudder to think of another powerhouse coming out of the SEC, or sadly, since this is the SEC, we may never know how good Ole Miss truly is by going by record alone.
Vanderbilt
Records the past 3 years
2010: 2-10
2011: 6-7
2012: 9-4
Reasons to be optimistic:
They have the #22 recruiting class coming in on a team that returns 17 starters and 17 seniors. These kids have grown for the past 3 years and are looking to put a crowning achievement on their careers. One player decided AGAINST the NFL in order to come back and help the Commodores do something special. They were 4-3 in the SEC last year with losses against Florida (14 points), Georgia (not even close again), and South Carolina (4 points). They are a team on the cusp of greatness.
Reasons to be doubtful
Like Ole Miss, Vandy faces an uphill battle in getting better in the SEC because Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina are always going to be on the schedule. This year they also have a trip to Texas A&M and a home game against Ole Miss. They have also had a season of turmoil as 4 players are involved in a rape case and a fifth who is one of their top wide-outs from a year ago has also been implicated. Can this team handle the distractions and the pressure?
Bottom line:
Like Ole Miss, we may never truly know how good Vanderbilt is. They are better than 60-70% of the country, but can they make people believe? I believe this team should be ranked, but they have to beat some SEC powerhouses to make it happen. This is a good team, but I don't see the teams ahead of them getting weaker. Too many at the top, but Vandy leads a very good SEC middle.
Texas
Records the past 3 years
2010: 5-7
2011: 8-5
2012: 9-4
Reasons to be optimistic:
In a conference that is full of questions and transitions this year, Texas looks like the lone team that is standing steady, and that just might be enough. They have been improving the past 3 years and last year they only lost to TCU (7 points), West Virginia (3 points), Kansas State, and Oklahoma. Granted the losses against WV and TCU cannot happen this year, but neither can losses against KState or Oklahoma. Texas is returning 19 starters and the offense continues to improve. In 2010 and 2011 the offense averaged in the 20's for points a game, last year was 35 points a game. In a conference that does not play defense that stat bodes very well. The recruiting classes have also been good with a #5 in 2011, #3 in 2012, and a #16 ranked class in 2013.
Reasons to be doubtful:
The defense returns 9 starters but loses Vaccaro and Okafor. Honestly I don't know if this is a good thing. As the offense has gotten better the defense was the opposite direction. In 2010 and 2011 they surrendered an average of 22-23 points a game but this jumped to 29 points a game last year, that trend cannot continue. The schedule is not a cake walk either with trips to West Virginia and TCU, but they do get the pleasure of hosting Oklahoma State. Another reason to wonder is; with all those good recruits coming in, can they finally deliver?
Bottom line:
This should be Texas' conference to win this year. They have the most stability coming into the year and appear to have been building to this point. They spent last year beating teams you would expect them to beat and losing to the teams you would expect them to lose to, with the exception of West Virginia. If their trend continues this should not be a re-occurring problem and expect Texas to beat even the teams they should lose to.
TCU
Records the past 3 years
2010: 13-0
2011: 11-2
2012: 7-6 (first year in B12)
Reasons to be optimistic
The first year is behind them and it was one to forget. But it was a rough season for the Horned Frogs. They lost their starting qb and got introduced to the B12 brand of offense, but still held their own at giving up only 22 points a game which is only half a point worse than in 2011. The problem was on offense as they dropped from 40 points a game in 2010 and 2011 to only 28 last year. Pachall is back and they now have a seasoned back-up who kept the ship afloat last year. It was not a typical TCU year with injuries, off the field issues, and the pressure of joining the B12.
Reasons to be doubtful:
They had a rough off-season with 2 starters quitting the team and some suspensions to go along with that. The schedule promises to be tough with an opener against LSU. But honestly the LSU game does not matter in the larger context of the B12. They must travel to Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State and had better be prepared to play some D.
Bottom line:
TCU should be Texas' hardest competition for the B12 crown this year. Having the best defense in the B12 and having offenses in transition all through the B12, TCU should be looking good. The game against UT is the game of the year for this conference.
Rutgers
Records the last 3 years
2010: 4-8
2011: 9-4
2012: 9-4
Reasons to be optimistic:
Recruits are coming to Rutgers; they ranked #24 in 2012 and #37 in 2013. In 2012 they shared the Big East title with Louisville and had one of the best defenses in the country. It was the first year for their new coach and they only came up a few plays short of beating Louisville at the end of the season.
Reasons to be doubtful:
The quarterback play is highly in-consistent, with the QB being the number one reason they lost to Louisville in the first place. The defense that was so tough last year lost 7 starters this off-season and even more players have been dismissed off the team. Coach Flood going into his second year has also decided to completely over-haul his coaching staff including new Defensive and Offensive coordinators.
Bottom line:
They won't get a lot of national recognition as the Big East turns into the AAC this year, but that's okay because Rutgers is heading to the B10. I see a step back for them this year but the future is definitely bright.
Georgia Tech
Records the past 3 years
2010: 6-7
2011: 8-5
2012: 7-7
Reasons to be optimistic:
They play on the weak side of the ACC with only UNC to worry about. They played Florida State and Miami close and have been trying to get to the next level for a couple years now. They beat USC and UNC both last year and have some momentum building. A trending pick for a lot of "experts."
Reasons to be doubtful:
They are scrapping their 3-4 system in favor of a 4-3. How quickly can the adjustments be made? The schedule is also tough with trips to Miami and Clemson. But they do get UNC, Syracuse, and Georgia at home. With so many mediocre seasons, has Ga Tech given enough to really be optimistic this year?
Bottom line:
They are a perfect middle of the road team in a perfect middle of the road conference. They spent most of last year losing to the teams they should lose to, ie: Fla St, Georgia, Clemson, and Miami and feasting on the rabble on their side of the conference. They showed flashes of something more, but I am not buying it at this time.
North Carolina
Records the last 3 years:
2010: 8-5
2011: 7-6
2010: 8-4
Reasons to be optimistic:
The only team they have to worry about on their side of the conference is Georgia Tech. They also have a 3 year starter at quarterback who will be playing consecutive seasons in the same system. This kid is for real and will put on a show this year. The average scoring for UNC went from 25-28 points a game in 2010 and 2011 to 41 points a game in 2012. They have also beat Clemson and Florida State within the last 3 years and have no reason to be scared, IF they had to play either of those two teams that is. The UNC schedule should set them up for a great season with trips to South Carolina, Georgia Tech, and a home game against Miami as the only worries.
Reasons to be doubtful:
They lost to Duke and Wake Forest last year. This kind of in-consistency must stop. UNC has had the #16 incoming class in 2011 and the #21 class in 2013, so with this kind of talent, losses to these kind of teams must stop. Last year UNC was not eligible to play for anything so this year they do not have the luxury of playing pressure free football.
Bottom line:
North Carolina is set up to have an amazing year and by all accounts should be in the ACC title game at the end of the year. And if Clemson or Florida State sleep on them... BCS buster indeed.
Now for part 2: The most over-ranked Teams going into 2013 are:
Oklahoma State, Notre Dame, Who-ever the B10 Champ is
Oklahoma State
Records the last 3 years:
2010: 11-2
2011: 12-1
2012: 8-5
Reasons to be optimistic:
Gundy's team will score points and will score a lot of them. They averaged 45 points a game last year and that was without Blackmon and Weedon. There are good recruits coming to Stillwater with the #23 class in 2011 and the #27 class in 2013.
Reasons to be doubtful:
In a recent trend this off-season Ok St joins the ranks of teams that will be going with 2 quarterbacks this year. Both played last year and like Wisconsin that only added up to 8 wins. I am not a fan of the dual quarterback theory because I believe a team needs a single leader. But, both of these guys can lead an offense to pay dirt. However, not only will Ok St have 2 quarterbacks, but they will have a new offensive
coordinator calling the plays. Recipe for success? Not so sure. There is also a slew of new assistants coming on-board as well. Too much transition for me, especially for a team that is supposed to win the B12. Another big sign of worry for this team: defense. If anyone is reading this in Stillwater, let me explain what a defense is, since I know this might be a confusing concept for you. A defense is a team of 11 players that take the field against an opposing team's offense and they try to take the ball away, force the other team to punt, and generally keep points off the board. Got it? The reason people in Stillwater may not know what a defense is? Is because the Cowboys don't play any. Here is their 4 year trend on points allowed per game: 2009/21 pts, 2010/26.4 pts, 2011/26.8 pts, 2012/28.2 pts. They keep getting worse...heaven forbid if the offense goes south for a game or two, this team ain't winning the close one. Look at this stat, last year in the Cowboys' 8 wins they gave up 131 points for an average of 16.38 points a game, NOT THAT BAD RIGHT??? In Ok St's 5 losses they gave up 236 POINTS FOR A 47 POINTS ALLOWED PER GAME!!! ARE YOU KIDDING ME?!?!? In 3 less games they gave up 105 points more!!! And the teams they beat to bring their points allowed down: Iowa St (10pts allowed), Savannah St (0 pts allowed), Kansas (10 pts allowed), Purdue (14 pts allowed), and a hurting TCU (14 pts allowed). Wow. Simply wow.
Bottom line: OVER-RANKED
Notre Dame
Records the past 3 years:
2010: 8-5
2011: 8-5
2012: 12-1
Reasons to be optimistic:
Tommy Rees is 14-4 as a starter in his career. USC and Oklahoma remain on the schedule. They have had 3 top 10 recruiting classes the last 3 years.
Reasons to be doubtful:
Tommy Rees is a turnover machine and Gholston isn't on the team. They lost another starting LB beside Te'o in the off season and that great defense got shown for all that they are against an extremely physical Alabama team. They have to make a trip to Stanford and play an improving Michigan team.
Bottom line:
I think we can all rest assured that last year was a fluke. This is not a bad team, but they were not a 12-0 team. They were a 9 win team that got lucky. This year will be a return to earth for them. A good season but not one deserving of their pre-season rank or any hype.
The B10 Champ
I know what you're thinking, I profiled Northwestern and Wisconsin, said nice things about Michigan and now I am saying that any B10 champ is over-rated? Yes, because in the case of Northwestern or any other team out the B10, they are relevant ONLY in relation to the B10. What Northwestern or Michigan or Ohio St or any other B10 team does in relation to the nation means nothing. None of these B10 are playing hard schedules because A) they aren't playing good teams outside the conference and B) they are playing each other. But I am sure that any team that starts making a name for themselves in the B10 will be vaulted into the Top 10 and be considered for bigger and better bowl games which is a travesty with so many deserving Pac12 and SEC teams out there. The best we can hope for is that all of these B10 teams end up with at least 1 loss and get taken out of the debate by mid-season.
And now the team that remains the biggest mystery going into the season: Florida State
Florida State is another team in transition, albeit a very talented team in transition. The defense is an absolute monster with 19.6 pts allowed in 2010, 15.1 pts allowed in 2011, and only 14.7 pts allowed in 2012. They are also bringing in great classes, #1 in 2011, #2 in 2012, and #9 in 2013. BUT, the defense has lost defensive coordinator Mark Stoops, and the defensive line is completely new, but not completely in-experienced. The entire staff has gone through an over-haul and even a new offensive coordinator has been brought in. The bright spot is a freshman qb named Winston who is looking to be the Florida version of Johnny Manziel, minus the sharpie. The schedule is favorable with only a road game to Clemson, a road game to Florida, and a season opener at Pitt to be wary of. But, as we all know, Florida State has a talent for sleeping on sub-par opponents (see NC State last year) and giving it all away. So what does all this mean for the Seminoles? I have no idea, but we should know soon enough.
That's it everybody, thanks for taking the time to read my post. If you have any comments please do not be shy, leave your comments at the end, or email me at collegefootballfanweekly@gmail.com or follow me on facebook at www.facebook.com/aubrey.mos. This promises to be an exciting season and I would love to share it with as many people as possible and have great debates every week!
Next post: Previewing Opening Week of the College Football Season!!! It's finally here!!!!!!!!
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