The End of an Era

What a great game and what a great way to end the BCS era. Florida State and Auburn played a classic, strength on strength, back and forth, who is going to blink first. A game that went through multiple scenarios and special teams ends up being the story of the night. I said all along that Winston would get his, just didn't expect him to get it all on the final drive.

Third down was a key down early. Auburn brought the pressure and FSU couldn't cope with it. Winston was off target early on and just as I predicted Auburn won the first quarter 7-3. Auburn then went on to build a 21-3 lead and my prediction was coming closer and closer to being the truth. On my Facebook I also said that Nick Marshall would make the big plays early and not screw up late, sadly, he did the opposite of the second part of that statement.

The first half was all Auburn first of all. The D-line was owning FSU on third down, Auburn was playing their game, but Marshall was firing low and being in-decisive. There were at least 2 opportunities for him to run and make some plays but he did not do it and ended up with incomplete passes or short completions. When Auburn ran to the outside FSU had no answer, Marshall was too fast, and the screen call on third down was genius play calling on an over-pursuing defense and at that point it was 21-3 and Marshall was 6 of 9 for 103 yards. The biggest blemish would be the missed field goal for that half of football for Auburn. How big is a missed field goal? Pretty big.

The second half started with Auburn up 21-10 and the game was theirs to lose. With their running game and their defense there was no way they could lose this. And Auburn didn't lose it as much as FSU stood up and took it from them. The second half turned into a defensive struggle which no one saw coming. The FSU defense was stopping the run and playing with great fire and passion. #8 Timmy Jernigan was a beast inside and ate up anything that came his way. The score got to 21-20 and FSU missed a chance at a 2 point conversion due to unsportsmanlike behavior. Auburn still has the lead, they have FSU right where they want them.

At this point I was starting to wonder where Tre Mason has been all game, he had the quietest 195 yards I have ever seen out of a back. But on the drive around the 10 minute mark, #8 for FSU started having some conditioning issues and the run game started to click. Mason was finding holes in the middle, Marshall was making plays although still indecisive and costing Auburn yardage. But on 3rd and 4 inside the red zone with #8 Jernigan gassed, Auburn decides to throw the ball and no one was there and they had to settle for the field goal.

It was at this point I turned to my friends, with the score 24-20, and I said, "How big is that missed field goal? Marv Levy once said, "Offense sells tickets, defense wins games, special teams wins championships." No sooner had I said that and FSU broke the kick off for 100 yards and a touchdown. Blazing speed and Auburn players falling down and getting sucked inside the play will help that everytime.

So here we go, this is Auburn's type game right here. Marshall made a few plays and with #8 Jernigan out on the sideline Mason finally broke a huge 37 yard run for a touchdown and Auburn was ahead 27-24.

Now that brings us to Winston. The big games have been on his shoulders all year. He has been going through some growing pains as the season has gone along. I said all along though he was too talented not to get his in this game. Before the final FSU drive Winston was 14/28 for 160 yards....not very Heisman like. On the final drive he was 6 for 7 for 77 yards including the game winning pass to Benjamin. The Tiger defense had been holding all night like I said they would, but when ultimate crunch time started, it was all Winston's. But if Auburn hadn't missed that field goal earlier, this would have been a tie game.

If there was a GOAT for Auburn it was #11 Chris Davis. This kid had a rough night. He blew coverages, he missed a tackle on the final FSU drive, he got suckered into leaving his assignments and Benjamin caught the winning TD over him at the end.

Nick Marshall did not have that great of a game either. His indecision hurt Auburn on critical drives and then he threw a pick on a bad pass in the 4th quarter. Not exactly "not screwing up late." He never should have thrown that pass, he had no chance of completing it, but sometimes the moment gets to you. Speaking of the moment, it sure looked too big for FSU early on. Penalties (8 for 60) and dropped passes were a theme through the first to third quarters, but the half-time adjustments shut down Auburn and gave FSU just enough offense to win.

This was a great game and was truly a #1 on a #2 match-up. Special teams came up huge in a game that was tightly contested as it so often does and Winston completed his magical journey by coming through in the clutch. My hat is off to FSU, I feel like I abandoned them in this game. I had this to say on September 2nd last year about FSU:
"Winston is the real deal. The kids is tremendously accurate, on the run, with a man in his face, standing in the pocket, etc etc. I saw more than enough against albeit a Pitt defense, but the kid has all the tools. And he is COMMITTED to throwing the ball. It does not look like he wants to run, but if that opens up, there will be no stopping him. If you want proof of what Winston can do, see if you can find footage of him completing a pass on 1st and 30 close to half-time. Wow. I am still un-decided on the FSU D, they got pushed around early, started tackling better and seemed sound, but the Pitt qb was also making some bad throws which led to a F/G and a couple turnovers in the first half. Remember this name: Kelvin Benjamin, a big kid who is going to catch a lot of balls for FSU this year."

Winston ran for 26 yards tonight and got those yards on a critical drive in the first half to cut the score to 21-10. Without that TD, FSU is probably done for.

On September 21st I put FSU down as the 4th best team in the country while the Coaches had them at #8.

But then I picked Clemson to beat them on October 17th and FSU then trashed them.

Then on November 9th I said the Seminoles were the 2nd best team in the country and that the national title was theirs to lose to Alabama.

Then I picked Auburn. Live and learn I think?

As for picks here is how the season shook out.

Regular season: 57-27, 68%

Bowl season: 21-14, 60% - lost my last 3 picks

Total record: 78-41, 66%

What gives me solace? Espn went 19-16 with their Power Index, but they did get the National Champ right.

I do want to give a shout out to my buddy Aaron, who has given me insight over the year, he went 23-12 (66%) in bowls, but sadly like me, he had Auburn picked as well.

Here are the final bowl standings of the conferences:

1. Sun Belt: 2-0, 100%

2. SEC: 7-3, 70%

3. Pac12: 6-3, 67%

    Independents: 2-1, 67%

5. B12: 3-3, 50%

    Conference USA: 3-3, 50%

    Mountain West: 3-3, 50%

8. ACC: 5-6, 45%

9. AAC: 2-3, 40%

10. B10: 2-5, 29%

11. MAC: 0-5, 0%

That's the end to another great season of College Football. I'll be back later in the week with a team ranking wrap up (I had to make big changes to my Performance Index) and a bigger break-down of the bowl records of these conferences. Hope you enjoyed the games!