Dancing Between the Hedges and Other Top 25 Ramblings #LSU@Georgia

We have a lot to discuss so lets get right to it!

LSU@Georiga

Les Miles said before the game about Mettenberger: "He need not worry about anything but playing quarterback." As we shall see, he needed to worry about his young freshman defense on the road. The quote was in reference to Mettenberger trying to play for Georiga, his mom working for Georgia, Mettenberger got in trouble in Georiga....I don't really know and I don't really care, it had something to do with Georgia....well the entire LSU team had something to do with Georgia Saturday and I found that more interesting. The other thing I don't care about? The lack of pass interference penalties, they weren't called all game and I have no problem with that. They let the defensive backs do whatever they wanted out there and the offenses still threw for over 600 yards combined, almost 700 actually. Maybe they should have let the DB's use hammers and pistols. Hit the WR's in the knees with the hammer and shoot'em if they make the catch. 

The Good for LSU: 
1. That was probably the best quarterbacking performance I have seen out of LSU in easily 2 years, and probably longer. Anymore doubters of Mettenberger? Here's the line: 23/37 for 372 yards and 3 touchdowns. 
2. The LSU adjustments at halftime. LSU had Georgia right where they wanted in the second half behind their new found running game and better tackling on the defensive side. The LSU coaches did what they had to do to put these kids into a situation to win.
3. Jarvis Landry. Just wow. Plain wow. When-ever LSU needed a catch guess who showed up? This was highlighted by his catch in the 4th quarter when he made a falling backwards catch in traffic and got his helmet knocked off. My favorite WR in the entire country right here. 10 catches, 156 yards, and 1 touchdown
4. Jalen Mills. The ONLY LSU DB to make a play all day. He knocked down 2 passes on one drive and made a huge tackle on a running back on third down.

The GOOD for Georgia:
1. Craig Loston - S for LSU. He personally accounted for 3 of Georgia's touchdowns yesterday with his mental lapses. He let Michael Bennett get by him on the first drive for a touchdown, he then let Conley get behind him on the 3rd Georgia drive for a 25 yard touchdown off of play-action, and then he gave no help over the top to the LSU DB and let Scott Wesley run free for the game winning touchdown catch. I hope he got a Georgia game ball.
2. The offensive line play. I think Aaron Murray had a clean jersey. And the run blocking was a thing of beauty. Great back side seals, blowing players off the ball, etc, etc..
3. The Georgia offense. They played a damn near perfect game, which is what this team needed. There was 1 INT thrown early in the game off of a great play by LSU lineman Anthony Johnson, Murray almost fumbled a snap once, and other than that it was flawless. 
4. Georgia's play-making abilities on defense. They had 4 sacks and 2 of those were coverage sacks. As good as the LSU receivers are, the Georgia DB's wrapped them up tight a couple times...sometimes literally but this was happening on both sides. A lot of the players I called out in my defensive report on Georgia made plays today: Ray Drew had a tipped pass on the last LSU drive, Harvey Clemons was flying around all day, Jenkins had a big day and could have sealed it with an INT late, Floyd made a couple of big plays, and of course Herrera had his hand in this as well. 
5. I said special teams would play a part in this...who knew that Georgia's special teams would be flawless...

The BAD for LSU:
1. The defensive line. I don't think they played without passion, they just got man-handled by the Georgia offensive line. I counted a total of 5 times the entire game that LSU got any type of pressure on Murray. FIVE out of a whole game. And 4 of those 5 times resulted in incomplete passes. The better unit prevailed today.
2. The LSU defensive backfield. How many times can you fall asleep on your assignments? Do these kids understand when to play zone and when to play man coverage? Georgia's offense was very good on Saturday, but it's easy to make plays when your WR's are running LOOSE in the defensive backfield. On Michael Bennett's 20 yard TD catch in the 3rd quarter you literally see half of the LSU DB's playing man coverage, and half of them playing zone. The DB playing zone, I assume, was hoping for help over the top that wasn't there....probably because he was supposed to be playing man coverage. Result: Bennett wide open, Touchdown and a 34-27 Georgia lead. And this was on a third and 11 play after Barrow had blown up a run play and Georgia had a false start, it was a field goal at best.
3. LSU run defense in the first half. In watching the LSU defense try to plug up the running holes I was reminded of quote from Sheriff Buford T. Justice from Smokey and the Bandit when cops were trying to close a road block around the Bandit. Justice said, "You sum'bitches couldn't close an umbrella." Yeah, it was that bad. I could have ran through those holes. 
4. LSU special teams. It was like "Curse of the Reverse Hatter." I said last week that Odell Beckham worries me as a WR because he drops too many passes, but is one of the best returners in the country. On THIS day he didn't drop a pass but he dropped a punt....un-believable.
5. LSU only had 3 defensive stops all day. One was an INT, one resulted in a punt, and one resulted in a dropped punt. And I don't count dropped Georgia passes as the LSU defense making a stop.
6. LSU on their final drive. The offense had been running play-action crossing routes all day for huge gains. There is a minute and a half left, why did they stop running the crossing routes? Georgia was bringing the blitz, why did LSU not mass protect? They did it earlier in the game and had great success with only 2 or 3 route runners. Why not slip the backs out of the backfield like they did earlier in the game? And as good as he was all day, Mettenberger looked like he cracked. The rush wasn't THAT bad and he was over-throwing everybody. 
7. The prevent defense from LSU on Georgia's game winning drive. 

The Bad for Georgia
1. Gurley got a sprained ankle.

Final game notes:
The moment looked too big for LSU, especially at the end. The DB's made mental mistakes, the offensive line made mental mistakes and played lack-luster in the first half. Mettenberger looked rattled at the end. When was the last time Les Miles won a big game? He lost the national championship to Bama, lost to Bama again the next year, lost to Clemson in the bowl game....
Georgia looked pumped and ready from the word "Go." The defense gave up a lot of yards and a lot of points, but held when they needed too and made a lot more plays than LSU's. Murray didn't make the dumb mistakes that has sometimes haunted his career. When Georgia plays like this, they are damn near un-beatable. They needed the almost perfect game and they delivered.
Georgia's offense averages 345 passing yards a game on the season and 209 rushing, LSU held them 298 passing and 198 rushing, but couldn't keep them off the score-board when it mattered.
LSU's offense averages 281 passing and 192 rushing and Georgia allowed them 372 passing and only 77 rushing.
LSU has given up 519 yards rushing to Georgia, Auburn, and TCU combined.


Wisconsin@Ohio State

This was game was a lot more entertaining than I thought it would be.

Ohio State came out firing on all cylinders to start the game and scored the first touchdown of the night in a minute and seven seconds. So much for that Wisconsin defense. Carlos Hyde was a beast, breaking tackles, and pounding the Wisconsin defense. Miller looked sharp in his return, rolling out on boot-legs, throwing on the run, and firing strikes into the endzone.

Wisconsin looked like I expected them to early on, sloppy passing and not being able to run against a defense that was loaded against it. Then Wisconsin found their passing game. Does anyone remember in "Remember the Titans" when Denzel said something about only running a handful of plays but they were going to run them to perfection? Well that was Wisconsin's passing game. Play-action, roll out, throw it to Abbrederis. Play-action, roll out, throw it to Abbrederis. Play-action, roll out, throw it to Abbrederis. Abbrederis had 10 catches for 207 yards. At one point I was absolutely exasperated and could not understand why Ohio State was not doubling covering this guy. Hell sometimes, they didn't cover him at all. HE'S THE ONLY WR WISCONSIN HAS FOR GOD'S SAKE!!! COVER HIM!!!  The rest of Wisconsin only had 10 more catches for 92 more yards!!

On the next Ohio State drive it was more of the same, Hyde busting through people, Miller looking sharp and the Buckeyes were up 14-7.

From here on it turned into more a defensive struggle type of game. Wisconsin remembered who they were and started standing up against the run. Of course it seemed to me that there were times that Ohio State's play-calling was too cute and they lost sight of Hyde. As for the Wisconsin running backs, Ohio State came prepared to stop the run and that's what they did early on, and Abbrederis be damned! Wisconsin had some sloppy penalties that hurt. The Badgers got a huge break when Ohio State muffed a punt but a penalty negated the Wisconsin recovery and they had to re-kick.

I have to say I was more impressed with Wisconsin QB Joel Stave than I was 2 weeks ago at Arizona State. He was moving well, he was avoiding the rush, and he was a lot more accurate with his throws. I thought it was a different quarterback at one point. In his return, Braxton Miller had some gutsy runs, particularly on the last drive before half. On that last drive I was livid at Ohio State's third down call when they threw it into the endzone and ended up with a 4th down just outside of field goal range. Why would you not pick up the yards and make sure you got the 3 points? Miller then promptly threw a 40 yard strike to Corey Brown for a touchdown. Sorry Urban, you got this, my bad.

After halftime Ohio State decided to do their Wisconsin imitation and ground and pound. Wisconsin's defense was up to the challenge and held their own and limited the big plays. Wisconsin had one solid chance to really make a game out of this in the third quarter. The Badgers had just punted from deep in their own territory and Ohio State had the ball on the Wisconsin on 47 yard line. Wisconsin stuffed Ohio State's run game and forced a turnover on downs on 4th down and had GREAT field position. Stave then threw an interception. On the next Buckeye drive they scored a touchdown and made the score 31-14. The game ended 31-24 but I never really felt Wisconsin was going to win this game from this point on.

Wisconsin gained 295 yards passing and ran for 104. On the season they were averaging 217 passing and 300 running. I said on Wednesday that if they had to throw the ball it would not be good. They got yards, but they lost the game. I have to say I was somewhat impressed by what I saw from Ohio State. The speed on defense is great, they play with heart, and the offense is very dynamic and versatile. However, I still don't see them beating really tough competition. 

Other TOP 25 action:

Ole Miss@Alabama - I thought I was being smart when I picked the Rebels on Wednesday, and then I realized how trendy that pick was becoming. I hate trendy picks. I then remarked to my fiancee on Friday that it sucked because Alabama was probably hearing all of this crap and was going to come out pissed off and completely shut down Ole Miss....They held Ole Miss to 205 yards, and ran for 252 themselves....And as I said a few weeks ago, Alabama is STILL very much Alabama.

Texas A&M@Arkansas -
"I am proud of my Hogs tonight. We came out and did exactly what I expected. I am not disappointed in this loss. We gave A&M one heck of a fight and ultimately didn't capitalize on the few opportunities they gave us while we gave them 2 rather large ones. Great effort by the team and great play calling by the coaches!!! We may not have been able to pull off the W but I'm super proud to be a HOG today!!! The future looks bright!!! O yeah, and Floyd Mayweather lost $300k betting against my Hogs!!!" a quote from Aaron my Razorback insider.

"If our defense was capable of stopping a toddler with a nerf ball, I think we could win it all." a quote from Jules my Texas A&M insider.

This game was way too close for a Top 10 team like A&M. When are they going to start running the ball with those backs and KEEP THAT FREAKING DEFENSE OFF THE FIELD?!?!

Oklahoma State@West Virgina - Do I hear it? Is that someone saying "OVER-RATED" over there?!?! Welcome to the fold brother! Dana Holgerson the coach of WVU said about his team after the game, "Golly they sure played hard." I didn't realize West Virginia had Butters on staff to write press releases. That's cool.

South Carolina@UCF - I keep telling people the AAC is a tough conference, and they almost knocked off another SEC opponent this week. But the running of Mike Davis powered the Gamecocks to a win.

Arizona@Washington - Who would have thought this would be a defensive battle in the first half? Washington shows their versatility and runs the ball down Arizona's throat for the win.

Cal@Oregon - Mariota completes 44% of his passes, Oregon turns the ball over 4 times, De'Anthony Thomas gets hurt on the opening kick, and Oregon scores 55 and wins.

Va Tech@Georgia Tech - Until there's a quarterback at Georgia Tech that can not underthrow his receivers, this team will always be on the outside looking in. Penalties and dropped balls are a sign of an undisciplined team as well. 

How did my Teams to Watch do?

Miami - Morris left the game early again. Didn't matter, still a "W".

North Carolina - Destroyed by Eastern Carolina....drop that game to Va Tech next week and this season might be over

Notre Dame - lost at home to Oklahoma, nothing too surprising. Over-rated I know.

Florida State - What the hell happened to that Fla St defense? They gave up 34 points to BC and was down 14-3 on the road to start the game. The good news, Winston throws for over 300 and 4 TD's and FLA St found a way.

Here's how my predictions came out this week: 5 wins, 3 losses
So far for the season my record is 13-5.

Here's my prediction for the coaches' top ten later today:
1. Alabama
2. Oregon
3. Ohio State
4. Clemson
5. Stanford
6. Georgia
7. Louisville
8. Florida State
9. Texas A&M
10. Oklahoma

And last but not least these are MY Power Rankings after this week of football:

1. Oregon
2. Clemson
3. Alabama
4. Florida State
5. Georgia
6. Stanford
7. Ohio State
8. Louisville
9. Texas A&M
10. LSU

As always thanks for reading!! Please leave your comments at the bottom or email them to me. I am on twitter Aubrey Mos @simplyNCAAF
I will see you later with Part 3 of "Whatever Happened to Defense in the SEC?"

CHECK THESE OUT:

http://www.landgrantholyland.com/2013/9/27/4775450/ohio-state-vs-wisconsin-2013-game-preview
 Great look at the Wisconsin/Ohio State game

http://www.andthevalleyshook.com/2013/9/27/4775654/lsu-vs-georgia-what-to-watch-for
Great look at the LSU/Georgia game

http://www.dawgsports.com/2013/9/27/4778318/round-table-predictions-lsu-gameday-bubba-watson-willie-robertson-duck-dynasty
 More LSU/Georgia

http://www.redcuprebellion.com/
   See how fired up Ole Miss fans are

http://www.uwdawgpound.com/2013/9/28/4775720/game-preview-and-tv-schedule-arizona-at-16-washington
  And a little Washington coverage

Whatever Happened to Defense in the SEC? Part 2

4. Alabama
Now here is a defense that only lost 4 starters in the off-season. That gives them a whopping 7 returning starters. Far more than any of the other Top 6 SEC teams we are looking at. It was LAST year that Alabama had to replace damn near everyone...and they finished in the Top 5 in defensive passing, defensive rushing, and points allowed. Here are some of their top players:
DB Vinnie Sunseri (JR) - 13 total tackles, 2 INT, 2 Touchdowns
DB Ha Ha Clinton-Dix (JR) - 16 total tackles
DB John Fulton (SR) - 15 total tackles
LB C.J. Mosley (SR) - 28 total tackles
LB Trey DePriest (SO) - 11 total tackles
The defense through the first 3 games is ranked 36th nationally at 19.3 points allowed a game. That's right if you take the 42 points from A&M and divide by 3 it only comes out to 14...Here are the specific yardage breakdowns:
GAME 1 Virginia Tech
Va Tech Yards Gained:
     59 passing
     153 rushing - 4.6 avg carry
     212 total
Va Tech on the year is averaging against other opponents
     192 passing
     142 rushing
     334 total
Va Tech averages last year
     231 passing
     146 rushing
     377 total
Virginia Tech is not an explosive offense in this day and age. They rely almost exclusively on their quarterback to throw AND to run. Their competition hasn't been great either with games against Western Carolina and ECU. And when they went against the veteran defense of Alabama; it's no wonder that they were 122 yards under their yearly average. Oddly though, their running game had one of its better games against the Tide. The Hokies' national rankings are: 100th in passing, 75th in rushing, 87th in points scored.
GAME 2 Texas A&M
A&M Yards Gained:
     464 passing
     164 rushing - 5.1 avg carry
     628 total
A&M on the year is averaging against other opponents:
     392 passing
     208 rushing
     600 total
A&M averages last year:
     316 passing
     242 rushing
     558 total
Just when you thought A&M's offense couldn't get better than last year....they did. 600 yards on average every game this year and they went ABOVE that average against Alabama, but had their worst rushing day on the year. Remember when I said A&M should run the ball more? Definitely should have against Bama, they were averaging over 5 yards a carry! The only defense worse than Alabama's D on the field this day was A&M's but I have already done the breakdown on this game if you refer back to my post "Alabama is still Alabama." A&M is currently ranked 5th in passing, 42nd in rushing, and 6th in points scored.
GAME 3 - Colorado State
Col St Yards Gained:
     228 passing
     51 rushing - 2 avg carry
     279 total
Col St on the year is averaging against other opponents:
     155 passing
     131 rushing
     286 total
Col St averages last year:
     210 passing
     129 rushing
     339 total
I thought Va Tech wasn't explosive...and Colorado State is even worse than last year and the veteran D of Alabama held another inept offense to 60 yards below their average.  Colorado State's national rankings are: 83rd in passing, 88th in rushing, 90th in points.
After 3 games here is how Bama's D is stacking up:
Passing: 751 total/250 per game
Rushing: 368 total/123 per game
Total:  1119 total/373 per game
The Tide is giving up 3.9 yards a rush which seems a little high for a veteran D like this. And even with these respectable averages this is a defense that has been up and down. The rushing D has had 1 good day and the passing D had a very very bad horrible day. But they are 3-0.
Alabama's opponents averages are as follows, with the Bama game taken out:
Passing: 246 a game
Rushing: 160 a game
Total: 402 a game
With these stats the picture starts to become a little more clear. Alabama is allowing a little more than their opponent's average in passing, they are holding their own on the run but are only allowing 29 yards less than their opponent's total yardage average. But we have to remember, they played A&M who is averaging only 20 yards less per game than if you ADD Colorado State's average total offense and Va Tech's average total offense together. So if we take it one step farther and factor OUT the A&M offense here are the averages for Colorado State and Virginia Tech:
Passing: 173 a game
Rushing: 137 a game
Total: 310 a game
And if you factor out the A&M game for Bama:
Passing: 143 a game
Rushing: 102 a game
Total: 245 a game
Still only a 65 yard difference. The other defenses we have looked at so far have played better against better competition and are younger.

5. Florida
Think LSU has the least amount of returning starters? Yep they do, but Florida is right there with them with only 4 returning starters, including a completely new starting defensive back-field. Here's a look at some of the top talent, which got thinner this past week with news that Dominique Easley is gone for the season, so I guess that gives them 3 returning starters now!
DB Loucheiz Purifoy (JR) - 5 total tackles
DB Vernon Hargreaves III (FR) - 5 total tackles, 2 INT, 3 passes defended
DB Brian Poole (SO) - 7 total tackles, 1 INT
DE Dante Fowler (SO) - 8 total tackles, 1 sack
LB Neiron Ball (JR) - 6 total tackles, 1 pass defended
LB Antonio Morrison (SO) - 13 total tackles, 2 games
Florida's defense is currently ranked 19th in points allowed at 14.7 a game. But what about dem stats?!?!
GAME 1 - Toledo
Toledo Yards Gained:
     155 passing
     50 rushing - 3.1 avg carry
     205 rotal
Toledo on the year is averaging against other opponents:
     234 passing
     225 rushing
     479 total
Toledo averages last year:
     251 passing
     193 rushing
     444 total
Toledo is out-performing last year with a more balanced attack. They have racked up their yards against East Washington and another SEC opponent in Missouri. And as you can see Florida held them to 274 yards BELOW their yearly average. That's just ridiculous no matter who you are playing. Toledo's national ranks are: 90th in passing, 59th in rushing, 85th in points scored.
GAME 2 - Miami
Miami Yards Gained:
     162 passing
     50 rushing - 1.8 avg carry
     212 total
Miami on the year is averaging against other opponents:
     257 passing
     314 rushing
     571 total
Miami averages last year:
     295 passing
     145 rushing
     440 total
131 yard difference between last year and this year for the Hurricanes. BUT this year the Hurricanes had the luxury of playing Savanah State and rolling up over 600 yards. The other game was over 500 yards against Florida Atlantic, but what happened when they ran into that buzz-saw from the Swamp? Only a 212 yard performance that is 360 yards below their average....360 yards....ridiculous, and Miami had every chance to put up yards on that defense because the Florida offense was so terrible. That FLA D was....ridiculous. Miami's national ranks are: 69th passing, 30th rushing, 15th points.
GAME 3 - Tennessee
Tenn Yards Gained:
     154 passing
     66 rushing
     220 total
Tenn on the year is averaging against other opponents:
    137 passing
     244 rushing
     381 total
Tenn averages last year:
     315 passing
     160 rushing
     475 total
Tennessee is definitely under-performing compared to last year by almost 100 yards. They have also had one more game to factor into their averages, and they have played Austin Peay, Western Kentucky, and Oregon. Oregon gave up 316 yards to the Vols, Florida gave up only 220 which is 161 yards below Tennessee's average. The rankings for Tennessee are: 114th in passing, 46th in rushing, and 60th in points.
Florida's defensive stats year to date are:
Passing: 471 total/157 a game
Rushing: 166 total/55 a game
Total: 637 total/212 a game
Florida's opponents total offensive averages without the Florida game are:
Passing: 209 a game
Rushing: 261 a game
Total: 477 a game
It's not even close. Florida is giving up 52 yards less a game in passing, 206 yards less in rushing, and a RIDICULOUS 265 yards less per game total than their opponent's average. I have nothing more to say, just re-read that last sentence.

6. Georgia
NOW let me ask you again: Think LSU has the least amount of returning starters? Yep, they still do, only they are joined by the 3 returning starters on Georgia. Georgia had a defense that was also ravaged by the NFL draft. But as we are going to see, the results from these 3 returning starters are much different from LSU's or Florida's 3 or 4 (however you want to count it). And let's be completely honest, for all the talent on the Georiga D last year....they underwhelmed at best. They gave up 44 points to Tennessee, 24 to Kentucky and an average of 20 points to Missouri, Florida Atlantic, and Buffalo. The stats were helped last year with games against that Florida offense, that Auburn offense, and that Georgia Tech offense later in the year. Here's how the fresh faces are doing:
LB Jordan Jenkins (SO) - 15 total tackles
LB Amarlo Herrara (JR) - 30 total tackles, .5 sacks, 3 passes defended, and he singled handedly won the South Carolina game this year with the fumble forced on Shaw and the 4th and goal tackle the last time the Gamecocks threatened late.
LB Leonard Floyd (FR) - 12 total tackles, 2 sacks
CB Damain Swann (JR) - 10 total tackles, 1 pass defended
CB Brendan Langley (FR) - 10 total tackles, 1 pass defended
DL Ray Drew (JR) - 7 total tackles
Georgia is currently 85th in points allowed at 29.7. Lets look at some stats:
GAME 1 - Clemson
Clemson Yards Gained:
     270 passing
     197 rushing
     467 total
Clemson on the year is averaging against other opponents:
     287 passing
     177 rushing
     464 total
Clemson averages last year:
     332 passing
     191 rushing
     513 total
Who knew Clemson was under performing from last year by 50 yards? And if not for their running game, would have been below their season yardage average against that young Georgia D. Clemson has played South Carolina State and had a tough go of it against NC State. Their national ranks are 30th in passing, 62nd in rushing, and 35th in points scored. It could have been a lot worse for that Georgia D, not a bad showing at all against a top offense.
GAME 2 - South Carolina
SCAR Yards Gained:
     228 passing
     226 rushing
     454 total
SCAR on the year is averaging against other opponents:
     269 passing
     224 rushing
     493 total
SCAR averages last year:
     238 passing
     138 rushing
     376 total
Talk about an offense that has broken out in a big way....AND they are Top 25 AND they play in the SEC, does this mean anything? (Another teaser for Part 3). Who would have thought that the Gamecock offense WITHOUT Marcus Lattimore would be doing so much better at running the ball. And Georgia held that offense to 39 yards less than their average and held at the goal-line when it mattered. South Carolina has played UNC and SEC opponent Vanderbilt. The Gamecock national rankings are: 49th in passing, 31st in running, 66th in points scored. Another big time offense, another decent stand by the Bulldog D.
GAME 3 - North Texas
NT Yards Gained:
     238 passing
        7 rushing
     245 total
NT on the year is averaging against other opponents:
     291 passing
     174 rushing
     465 total
NT averages last year:
     219 passing
     173 rushing
     392 total
The North Texas offense is off to a great start this year as they are averaging 73 yards more than last year against teams such as Idaho, Ohio, and Ball State. But when they went to Athens they were held to 220 yards less than their average. And as someone has said before, that kind of reduction is ridiculous. And for one more time, I HATE that special team scores are counted against the defense. If you take those out, the Bulldog D only allowed 7 points in this game. The North Texas rankings are: 33rd passing, 89th rushing, and 70th in points.
Here's how Georgia's ytd defensive stats look:
Passing: 736 total/245 a game
Rushing: 430 total/143 game
Total: 1166 total/389 a game
That per game average is ugly but here is what the Georgia opponents are averaging per game minus the Georgia game:
Passing: 282 a game
Rushing: 136 a game
Total: 474 a game
That's right, it's another inexperienced D in the SEC that is holding opponents under their season average and by a total of 85 yards a game. And they have played some serious offenses in South Carolina and Clemson. The offenses Georgia has played are averaging more per game than Alabama's, LSU's, or A&M's opposing offenses.

Now we have reached the end of the second part of my 4 part report on defense in the SEC and at this point we have to answer a question: What does all of this mean so far? Well in answer to that question we have gone through the past 2 posts in order to rank the defenses of the Top 6 SEC teams so we have a platform to spring off of in Part 3 (when we look at offenses of the whole SEC, as well as SEC on SEC violence) and Part 4 when we expand our defensive stats to the Top 10 in the country and we look at some SEC on Top 25 Out of Conference violence.

But in order to conclude part 2, we need to get to the rankings. Here is the criteria I used to rate them (all still based on the first 3 games of the season):
1. Average points allowed - they will be ranked 1-6 with 1 being the best/lowest
2. Average yards allowed per game - they will be ranked 1-6 with 1 being the best/lowest
3. Difference between yards allowed per game and opposing offense's total yearly average - they will be ranked 1-6 with 1 being the best/highest (basically #4 minus #3)
4. Average opposing offense's total yards a game - they will be ranked 1-6 with 1 being the best/highest
5. Average national rank of opposing offenses passing - ranked 1-6, 1 being the best
6. Average national rank of opposing offenses rushing - ranked 1-6, 1 being the best
7. Average national rank of opposing offenses points - ranked 1-6, 1 being the best
8. #'s 5-7 will be added together and divided by 3 for an opposing offensive national rank for each SEC D then they will be ranked 1-6, 1 being the best
9. #'s 1, 2, 3, 4 and 8 will be added together and divided by 5 for a total score and teams will be ranked by average, lowest being the best

I have done my best to keep all of these stats confined to the first 3 games of the season, including the national rankings. It is not perfect, since some of these teams have since played 4 games, and some of their opponents have played 4 games, and not everyone on this list had played 3 games at the same time...etc etc...the differences are negligible but it will all work itself out by the time we are done with Part 4. However I do feel these rankings are a very comprehensive PERFORMANCE ranking, because it's not simply who has given up the fewest yards, points, etc...but how have they performed given the offenses they have faced. ENJOY!

#6 Defense: Texas A&M with a score of 5.3
     pts allowed rank: 6
     avg yds per game rank: 6
     difference btwn def avg and opposing offenses avg rank: 6
     opposing offense yard per game avg rank: 5
     opposing offensive rank: 2.7

#5 Defense: Alabama with a score of 3.94
     pts allowed rank: 3
     avg yds per game rank: 4
     difference btwn def avg and opposing offenses avg rank: 5
     opposing offense yards per game rank: 5
     opposing offensive rank: 3.7

#4 Defense: Georgia with a score of 3.94
     pts allowed rank: 5
     avg yds per game rank: 5
     difference btwn yds per game and opposing offenses avg rank: 4
     opposing offense yards per game rank: 3
     opposing offensive rank: 2.7

#3 Defense: LSU with a score of 3.46
     pts allowed rank: 2
     avg yds per game rank: 2
     difference btwn yds per game and opposing offenses avg rank: 3
     opposing offense yards per game rank: 5
     opposing offensive rank: 5.3

#2 Defense: South Carolina with a score of 2.54
     pts allowed rank: 4
     avg yds per game rank: 3
     difference btwn yds per game and opposing offenses avg rank: 2
     opposing offense yards per game rank: 1
     opposing offensive rank: 2.7

#1 Defense: Florida with a score of 1.54
     pts allowed rank: 1
     avg yds per game rank: 1
     difference btwn yds per game and opposing offenses avg rank: 1
     opposing offense yards per game rank: 2
     opposing offensive rank: 2.7

Interesting facts about the rankings:
1. LSU has played the worst offenses by national rankings
2. Florida has the most #1 rankings and has played the second best offenses in yards per game
3. Georgia gets the tie-breaker over Alabama because their offenses have put up more yards and the offensive ranking was better. And shouldn't a veteran D playing against lesser opponents be greatly out-performing that young Georgia D against the power-houses?

I'll see you later this weekend when I breakdown LSU/Georgia and Wisconsin/Ohio State!!!

Games to Watch Week 5 #LSU@Georgia

And here we are again on another Wednesday looking ahead to Saturday! Here are the games NOT TO MISS and my predictions! This is a huge week of ranked teams playing ranked teams, so I do not have just one, but TWO games of the week in which I will present full fledged break-downs! Because I know you, the college football fan that you are, want to know all the details from all the games that matter.

#Virginia Tech@Georgia Tech on Thursday

Team with the most to lose: Georgia Tech - Last week the Yellow Jackets managed to grind out a win against UNC to give them a 1-0 record in the ACC. This week they get the Hokies who have quietly gone to 3-1. Every conference game is important, but Georgia Tech is looking to take that "next step" this year and a loss here would be a step in the wrong direction. Hopefully they are not looking ahead to next week when they travel to Miami, which they shouldn't be looking ahead since they have over a week to prepare. Wins against UNC, Va Tech, and Miami in 3 straight weeks would give Georgia Tech a stranglehold on their side of the conference. But they DO NOT want to go to Miami with a loss in conference already.

Team with the most to gain: Virginia Tech - They have quietly compiled a 3-1 record with the only loss to Alabama. But it took them 3 overtimes to put away Marshall. They start conference play here and then play UNC and Miami in the next two weeks. The proposition that Georgia Tech is faced with, Virginia Tech finds themselves entering into as well. A win against Georgia Tech gets that stretch of games off to a great start and gives them a leg up on one of the tougher teams on their side of the conference.

Top 25 Impact: Low at this point

Prediction: GEORGIA TECH


#LSU(6)@Georgia(10) - GAME OF THE WEEK #1

Team with the most to lose: Georgia - This would be their second loss of the season and it would be the end of their national championship hopes. The computers may have given us two SEC teams in a national championship, but a two loss team from any conference doesn't cut it. Georgia's offense will put up yards on LSU (they did on South Carolina), and the key will be turnovers and special teams play...2 things that have haunted Georgia this year.

Team with the most to gain: This game would be pretty huge for either LSU or Georgia. Georgia gets close if not back into the Top 5 and LSU WILL be in the Top 5 with a win, maybe the Top 3 (a win on the road at a top 10 team can do that). Both of these teams have high powered offenses and big bruising backs; this promises to be one of the BEST games of the year.

Top 25 Impact: VERY HIGH

Prediction: LSU


#Oklahoma(12)@Notre Dame(22)

Team with the most to lose: Oklahoma - They are off to a great start despite the quarterback play of the first two weeks. Then Knight got injured, in comes Bell and all hell breaks loose on the offensive side of the ball. Even though Notre Dame ain't what they used to be this will be the Oklahoma offense's biggest test so far. They can smell the top 10 from where they are and a loss here will not help them get there.

Team with the most to gain: Oklahoma - As I just said, this is Oklahoma's biggest test of the season so far. It's time to show what they are made of. Judging by the performances of both teams up to this point this should be Oklahoma in a blow-out, but it is also their first road game of the year. The B12 isn't that tough this year so Oklahoma needs to beat every ranked team possible.

Top 25 Impact: HIGH

Prediction: Oklahoma


#Ole Miss(21)@Alabama(1)

Team with the most to lose: Alabama - I am sending up the bat-signal on the Alabama offense. It is awful and if any of you have read my "Whatever happened to defense in the SEC" you know how bad they are. A loss here and they fall from number 1 and they fall behind LSU in the standings and the polls; and unless they get some serious help on offense, they will never catch the Tigers.

Team with the most to gain: Ole Miss - It's into the Top 20 with a victory here. It's into a first place tie with LSU in the SEC West. This team is young, the defense is young, but has held up well so far this year. They held Texas to their lowest offensive output all year and that was IN Austin. Ole Miss has had 2 weeks to prepare for the Tide and they get one of their injured starters back on defense. The only question is can the Rebels score enough points against the Alabama defense on the road? Ole Miss wants to run, Alabama's run defense has been up and down. It will come down to the explosive ability of Ole Miss which has been on display often this year. I wonder if Ole Miss is young enough to not realize the things they can't do...I know they won't quit till the final second runs off the clock.

Top 25 Impact: VERY HIGH

Prediction: Ole Miss


#Texas A&M(9)@Arkansas

Team with the most to lose: Texas A&M - This is their first road game of the year and the people in Arkansas are going to be fired up. A second loss here and just like Georgia, the national title hopes are lost as well. A&M has to be worried about that run defense of theirs going up against an Arkansas team that has an electrifying run game. If Arkansas can control this game and score how Alabama did, it could be a long day for the Aggies.

Team with the most to gain: Arkansas - After the let down against Rutgers, Arkansas looks to get back into conversation with a win against #9 A&M. It would give them a leg up in the SEC West standings and that is not a bad place to be. However, after what I saw from that Hog defense against Rutgers I wonder if they have the mental toughness to hang once Manziel starts making plays.

Top 25 Impact: HIGH

Prediction: Texas A&M


#Arizona@Washington(20)

Team with the most to lose: Washington - Are the 7-7 seasons a thing of the past? This game will let us know. Its a conference game and its at home. So far the Huskies have answered the bell in every challenge this year. They just need to take it one game at a time and not be thinking ahead to Stanford next week. They have Oregon the week after that and they must come out of this 3 game stretch 2-1 if they want any chance of playing for a Pac12 title and a loss against Arizona probably assures they WILL NOT go 2-1.

Team with the most to gain: Arizona - Washington has allowed only 30 points this year. Arizona has allowed 26. Washington gave up 24 of those 30 points in one game to Illinois. Arizona is averaging 44 points a game. Illinois averages 37. Arizona knocked off Oklahoma State last year, almost beat Oregon State and Stanford. They also crushed Washington 52-17 last year. They are 3-0 right now and a win against Washington makes them legit and gives them a great start in Pac12 play. Who's offense is going to make the most plays?

Top 25 Impact: MEDIUM

Prediction: WASHINGTON


#Wisconsin(24)@Ohio State(3) - GAME OF THE WEEK #2

Team with the most to lose: Ohio State - They MUST go un-defeated for a shot at the national championship game. Ohio State has not played anyone that matters except for Cal and they don't REALLY matter. I'm sorry but a schedule against deaf and blind schools doesn't mean much to me when teams like Georgia have already played 2 top 10 teams. So this is the put up or shut up game for Ohio State. Miller should be back in the line-up as well.

Team with the most to gain: Wisconsin - Maybe they aren't as over-rated as I have previously said, a win against the Buckeyes and I'll apologize. But Wisconsin lost the only game they played on the road against real competition and Ohio State looks to have an offense just as good as Arizona State's. Although it's hard to tell with the level of competition the Buckeyes have played. Wisconsin plants itself at the top of the B10 and looks to get into the Top 20 with a win. But if the Badgers have to throw the ball to stay in it, they won't. Although Ohio State has not faced a run game like Wisconsin's that can control a game. Wisconsin has been through one test this year, this will be Ohio State's first. We find out who is the most over-rated in this game. A Wisconsin victory and I get closer to my dream: ALL B10 teams have 1 loss and take themselves out of the national debate. A very hard game to call because both have ran up their records against sub-par teams.

Top 25 Impact: HIGH

Prediction: Ohio State


#Cal@Oregon(2)

Team with the most to lose: Oregon - A top 10 team CANNOT lose to an un-ranked team at home. The loss would be devastating.

Team with the most to gain: No one really. This victory won't mean much for Cal because they aren't a good team. Yes it would be a win, but you have to have more than 2 or 3 in a season for it to mean something. Oregon doesn't gain anything from a win. The most interesting part of this game is Cal's offense. This is the best offense that Oregon has faced all year and we will learn what the Duck defense is made of.

Top 25 Impact: VERY HIGH with a Cal upset

Prediction: Oregon

Whatever Happened to Defense in the SEC? Part 1

For the first 2 parts of my report I am limiting the defensive stats to the TOP 6 in the SEC: Alabama, LSU, Texas A&M, Georgia, South Carolina, and Florida.  In this first part we will be looking at the defenses of LSU, Texas A&M, and South Carolina. As a benchmark for this report I am only using the first 3 games of the season. Not only have all these teams played at least 3 games, but all their opponents have played 3 games as well. When part 4 comes out next week the stats will be expanded to include everything up to the current date. In the first two parts I will lay the groundwork of what the SEC defenses are doing and I will expand on this in the last 2 parts by showing how the SEC offensive mind-set has changed and might be impacting the stats. I will also look at how the SEC is stacking up to the rest of the county.

1. LSU
This is a defense that lost 6 defensive starters to the NFL last year, and all of them were under-class-men. This means that only 3 starters from last year's defense have returned. That's a tall order for any defense to over-come. So how are the replacements doing? I have included the stats and what year of college they are in.
DL Jermauria Rasco (JR) - 14 total tackles, 1.5 sacks
DL Anthony Johnson (JR) - 9 total tackles
DL Jordan Allen (JR) - 4 total tackles, 1 sack, 2 passes defended
DL Ego Ferguson (JR) - 16 total tackles, 1 sack
LB Lamin Barrow (SR) - 11 total tackles, .5 sacks, 1 pass defended
LB Kendell Beckwith (FR) - 5 total tackles
DB Tre'Davious White (FR) - 10 total tackles in only 2 games
DB Jalen Mills (SO) - 9 total tackles, 1 INT, 1 pass defended - he was a starter last year as a FR
DB Jalen Collins (SO) - 10 total tackles, 1 pass defended
As you can see, aside from the defensive line the Tigers are pretty young and in-experienced. In all total there are 8 true freshman that are seeing time and some of them are starting.
The defense through the first 3 games is ranked 37th nationally in giving up 19 points a game, but what about the yardage? Here is what we have:
GAME 1 - TCU
TCU Yards Gained:
     145 passing
     114 rushing and a 4.4 yds per carry average
     259 yards total
TCU on the year is averaging against other opponents
     213 passing
     188 rushing
     401 total
TCU averages last year:
     236 passing
     152 rushing
     388 total
So in TCU we have an offense that is over-performing compared to last year but did not hit their season averages against LSU. In fact there is a whopping 142 yard difference between the season average and the yardage in the LSU game.
TCU is 89th nationally in passing yards, 75th in rushing, and 82nd in points scored. They have played SE Louisiana and another ranked team Texas Tech.
GAME 2 - UAB
UAB Yards Gained:
     136 passing
     160 rushing with a 3.7 yds per carry
     296 total
UAB on the year average against other opponents
     225 passing
     188 rushing
     413 total
UAB averages last year:
     307 passing
     110 rushing
     417 total
Here we have an UAB team that is averaging about the same yardage as last year but was held to 117 yards less against LSU than their season average. Granted UAB has played Troy and Northwestern St who don't exactly have the defensive talent that LSU commands, regardless of the experience. However UAB is still ranked 67th in passing, 71st in rushing and 56th in points scored.
GAME 3 Kent State
Kent St Yards Gained:
     190 passing
     58 rushing with a 1.8 yards per carry
     248 total
Kent St on the year average against other opponents
     179 passing
     153 rushing
     332 total
Kent St averages last year:
     162 passing
     225 rushing
     387 total
Kent State is not the same offensive team they were last year. Their rushing is down significantly and so is their total. But against LSU they still suffered a huge 184 yard difference from their current yearly average. Kent State's opponents have been Liberty and Bowling Green, which like UAB's opponents are not the marks of highly touted defensive talents. Kent State is 96th in passing, 95th in rushing, and 86th in points nationally.
After the 1st 3 games this is how LSU's defense is stacking up in yards allowed:
Passing: 471 total/157 a game
Rushing: 332 total/111 a game
Total: 803 total/268 a game
A stat of note is that they are giving up 3.3 yards a rush which has gone down every single game, albeit helped by the running abilities of Kent State. If you take Kent State out of the mix LSU is giving up a non-stellar 4 yards a carry.
On the year LSU opponents are averaging per game not inluding the LSU game:
206 yards passing
176 yards rushing
382 total
All in all though, not too bad for a defense with so many new faces to be holding opponents on average to 50 yards less passing a game and 65 yards less rushing. And it's good to note that in 2 of these games it was over early and there was a lot of garbage passing yards to go around

2. South Carolina
This is a defense that also lost starters to the NFL as well as 5 senior linebackers. 7 of the 10 linebackers left on the team are freshman and no one had more than 5 career tackles at the start of the season. When I was talking about the vulnerabilities of the South Carolina defense behind the defensive line, this is exactly what I was talking about. All in all South Carolina only returned 5 starters from last year's defense (with most of those on the d-line), and here is a breakdown of some individual performances so far:
DL Chaz Sutton (JR) - 11 total tackles, 1.5 sacks
DL Kelcy Quarles (JR) - 8 total tackles 2 sacks
DL Jadeveon Clowney (JR) - 10 total tackles, 2 sacks
LB Kaiwan Lewis (SO) - 17 total tackles
LB Jordan Diggs (FR) - 4 total tackles
DB Ahmad Christian (SO) - 10 total tackles
DB T.J. Gurley (SO) - 21 total tackles, 1 pass defended
As you can already see the sack production is higher than LSU's from the defensive line. South Carolina has more experience than LSU's....coincidence? South Carolina is 67th in the nation after 3 games in allowing 25.3 points a game. BUT what about the yardage? Here we go again:
GAME 1 NORTH CAROLINA
UNC Yards Gained:
     194 passing
     99 rushing  with a 2.8 yards per rush
     293 total
UNC on year average against other opponents:
     298 passing
     118 rushing
     416 total
UNC averages last year:
     291 passing
     194 rushing
     485 total
The UNC offense is obviously not hitting its mark like it did last year, with most of that coming from a lack-luster ground game. They have played Middle Tennessee in their best offensive performance and just recently lost to Georgia Tech. But South Carolina completely dominated UNC in yards allowed by holding them to over a 100 yards less in passing vrs their season average, and that was when South Carolina got the lead and UNC had to play from behind and rely on the passing game. UNC's national ranks are 42nd in passing, 104th in rushing, and 92nd in points scored.
GAME 2 GEORGIA
Georgia Yards Gained:
     309 passing
     227 rushing - 4.3 yards a carry
     536 total
Georgia on year average against other opponents:
     387 passing
     207 rushing
     597 total
Georgia averages from last year:
     285 passing
     182 rushing
     467 total
Now here is an offense that is completely obliterating their stats from last year, with a tougher opening schedule than most. They have journeyed to Clemson and hosted North Texas. But if you look closely, as ugly as the South Carolina defense was they STILL held Georgia to below their season average across the board. How significant is it that South Carolina had such an ugly game against a fellow SEC opponent though? That question will be answered in Part 3. Georgia's national ranks are 9th in passing, 39th in rushing, and 28th in points scored.
GAME 3 VANDERBILT
Vandy Yards Gained:
     147 passing
     121 rushing - 3.7 yards a carry
     268 total
Vandy on year average against other opponents:
     287 passing
     148 rushing
     435 total
Vandy averages from last year:
     213 passing
     166 rushing
     379 total
ANOTHER SEC offense that is completely destroying their offensive stats from last year! And Vanderbilt has played Austin Peay and another TOP 25 SEC opponent in Ole Miss. But once again in an ugly looking game score-wise, South Carolina's defense held Vandy to 167 yards less than their average against other opponents with 140 in the passing game. Vanderbilt's national rankings are: 56th in passing, 84th in rushing, and 56th in points scored.
After 3 games here is the breakdown of South Carolina's defense on yardage allowed:
Passing: 650 total/217 game
Rushing 447 total/149 game
Total: 1097 total/366 game
The Gamecocks are also only allowing 3.6 yards a rush.
And on the year, South Carolina opponents are averaging per game not including South Carolina:
324 passing
158 rushing
482 total
A 120 yard difference for the Gamecocks between their D and their opponents' offensives, which is almost identical to the 114 yards less allowed by LSU. And South Carolina's opponents are averaging 148 yards per game more than LSU's opponents after 3 games.

3. TEXAS A&M - I put them last so all you Aggie fans had to read the whole post! HA!
This defense was not exactly ravaged by NFL draftees last year but still only has 5 returning starters. The secondary was 12th in the SEC last year and they have 2 new starters on defense. I don't have as many individual performances to point out on this team due to the suspensions of the first 2 games and there were a lot of different people getting a lot of playing time.
LB Donnie Baggs (JR) - 12 total tackles
LB Shaan Washington (FR) - 7 total tackles, 1 sack
DB De'Vonte Harris (SO) - 7 total tackles, 1 pass defended - 1 game
DB Deshazor Everett (JR) - 17 total tackles, 1 INT, 1 pass defended
Texas A&M is ranked 108th after 3 games in points allowed at 36 a game, but how does the yardage stack up? You have come to the right place:
GAME 1 RICE
Rice Yards Gained:
     203 passing
     306 rushing - 6 yards a carry
     509 total
Rice on year average against other opponents:
     234 passing
     183 rushing
     417 total
Rice averages last year:
     226 passing
     202 rushing
     428 total
Rice is holding their own offensively this year compared to last. They have played Kansas and Houston this year, although not on the recruiting level of A&M at this moment, they have the name and remember where coach Sumlin came from...Unlike the Gamecocks or Tigers, A&M actually let Rice have their best offensive day in their first 3 games, allowing 92 yards more than the Owl average and 123 more rushing yards. Ugly. Rice's national rankings are: 70 in passing, 32 in rushing, and 76 in points scored.
GAME 2 SAM HOUSTON
SAM Yards Gained:
     150 passing
     240 rushing - 4.7 yards a carry
     390 total
SAM on year average against other opponents:
     112 passing
     344 rushing
     456 total
SAM averages last year:
     190 passing
     268 rushing
     458 total
Sam Houston is right on pace with last year's offensive stats. They like to run and ironically enough, a defense that got ran over by Rice held Sam to 100 yards less than their average. Granted SAM does not play in the FBS so the talent level here can be a factor, and that SAM talent still put up 390 yards on the Aggies and 4.7 yards a carry.
GAME 3 ALABAMA
BAMA Yards Gained:
     334 passing
     234 rushing
     568 total
BAMA on year average against other opponents:
     191 passing
     81 rushing
     272 total
BAMA averages last year:
     218 passing
     227 rushing
     445 total
As I said before, can we start worrying about Alabama yet? This offense is awful, except against Texas A&M. There's no other way to put this. The Aggies let Alabama gain 296 yards more than they gained on average against Virginia Tech and Colorado State! If we do indeed find out whatever happened to defense in the SEC, we know it didn't go to Texas...Alabama's national ranks are: 58th in passing, 90th in rushing, and 36th in points scored.
In the first 3 games here is the line on the Aggie D yards allowed:
Passing: 687 total/229 game
Rushing: 780 total/260 game
Total: 1467 total/489 game
And the Aggie opponents are averaging per game on the year with the Aggie game not included:
179 passing
203 rushing
382 total
Unlike South Carolina and LSU the Aggie D is working in reverse and is allowing their opponents to gain over 100 yards more against them then the average against everyone else. And after 3 games they have the same record as South Carolina.

So what have we learned here: South Carolina has given up more yards than LSU but the offenses they have faced have been a lot tougher and South Carolina has responded by holding those offensive power-houses to lower yards against their average than LSU has held their weaker opponents to against their averages. However, LSU is by far the youngest and most in-experienced defense we have looked at and this could very well be a factor, but their performance is far from being sub-par. It should also be noted that it's hard to draw any conclusions about the Aggie defense since it is a defense that has been in-flux since the start of the season. It will be interesting to see where A&M is at the end of this 4 part report.

Next up: Alabama, Florida, and Georgia  

LSU is flawed? Among other things #Auburn@LSU

Alright, here we go!

In the pouring rain we had a little Tiger on Tiger violence in the swamps (literally) of Baton Rogue. And I hope the rest of the SEC...and the country was watching.

The first quarter was as dominating a first half of football as I have ever seen. LSU got pressure, LSU got turnovers, Jeremy Hill got touchdowns, and LSU even managed to block a punt. The LSU defense was swarming to the ball to make tackles, the Auburn defense was being gouged by the LSU running game, Landry was superb catching the ball and running after the catch. Simply amazing. I even made a note sometime in the first half that LSU is starting to remind me of the USC national championship teams. They have a stable of running backs, they have hired killers on defense, they have two excellent wide receivers, and their fans are like a pack of wild animals at game time (that's a compliment). But there is one glaring dis-similarity between these two teams that worries me for LSU, and that's the ability to put teams away, more on that in a minute.

As the first half wore on, and it WORE on, I don't know if anyone else felt this way, but this was a LONG game. Almost 4 hours and it seemed to drag at times. Anyways, as the first half wore on, LSU lost their fire on offense and defense it seemed to me. LSU got up 21-0 and then it was time to sit on it, old LSU style. Then the defense started to show signs of letting up: missed tackles, penalties and Auburn drove the ball down the field around 6 minutes before half. But then LSU stepped up, swarmed on third down and shut Auburn down. At half-time Jeremy Hill had 151 yards rushing and Auburn had 104 yards total....simply WOW.

The second half started with an Auburn on-side kick, a smart fair catch by LSU, and then Mettenberger's first INT of the season. It had to happen sometime right? Then Auburn took that ball right down the field for a TD and made it look easy....half-time adjustments by Auburn? Was LSU already looking ahead to Georgia? Or are the critics correct in saying that LSU lets up on their opponents after they get a lead? At this point in the game I made a notation that "LSU needs some passion on offense - too early to save up for Georgia." And what does LSU do on the next possession, Hill runs for 16, and Landry catches a 53 yard TD pass on a swing pass....only to be called back on a phantom holding penalty. This penalty was funny to me because I counted at least 4 instances of Auburn's offensive line choking out LSU defensive lineman on their way to the quarterback - no calls. So LSU comes right back and after hitting the sidelines all day in the passing game, they hit a BIG one right down the middle to their TE Dickson. Hill eventually punches the ball in with fantastic running vision at the goal-line. What I liked about this drive though was that Landry seems to be the lightening rod. They put the ball in his hands and life was given back to the LSU offense and they scored. Even on the next drive he makes a 26 yard catch and run on 3rd and 5. Of course that drive ended with a fake field goal attempt, good to see the Hatter is still the Hatter.

On the next Auburn drive the LSU D absolutely let up and Auburn hit a nice 52 yard bomb against freshman DB Tre'Davious White. Then came a run up the middle and it's another Auburn touchdown. Within the next LSU drive ESPN reminds us that Auburn has not allowed any points in the 4th quarter all year...32 yards to Landry later and they gave up their first touchdown. At this point Mettenberger was 9/11 for 160 yards after his interception and it was a great answer by LSU; they were looking a little more passionate and the defense responded with a 3 and out against Auburn on the next drive.

Then as the fourth quarter dragged along Auburn hit another big pass play on either Mills or Collins, I can't remember who and by the time I remembered to go back and look my DVR wouldn't go back that far. Once again though, no fire on the defense and Auburn ran in for another score that was way too easy. Now, here came the onside kick, and let me say the officials GOT IT RIGHT! The Auburn kicker's body was across the line but the ball was at the 9.5 when he made contact. It was right there in brown and green. But at this point the fire had completely gone out and LSU punted the ball right back to Auburn. As Auburn started putting together another drive I thought, "THIS IS GOING TO BE THE CLEMSON GAME ALL OVER AGAIN!!!" But Jalen Mills made another interception and for all intents and purposes this game was over.

I still stand by what I said, LSU is the best team in the SEC and one of the best in the country, but after watching the Auburn game there are definitely some concerns. Just concerns, I am not ready to call them problems yet. A knock on LSU so far this year is that they let people off the mat, now I have defended them by saying they are giving up garbage yards and garbage points during the garbage time of the game; ie after the game is won. And against Auburn...they might have been looking ahead to Georgia after they got up 21-0....or maybe the defense is too young to have that killer instinct and ability to put teams away. This is still a defense that let up against Auburn, but IT CANNOT HAPPEN AGAINST GEORGIA. It CANNOT HAPPEN AGAINST ALABAMA. And IT CANNOT HAPPEN AGAINST A&M. If it happens against Georgia I will officially move this "concern" into the problem category, because the Georgia game is for all the early marbles and with a let up against them in Athens, LSU probably loses the game. You cannot go on the road against a team like Georgia and "do just enough" to win a game.

Another thing that bothers me about LSU is penalties. I lost count at 4 false starts for LSU and THAT'S AT HOME PEOPLE!!! There is NO REASON a home team should have false start penalties! Period. My other concern is Beckham. Beckham is a GREAT returner, but I am not sold on him as a wide out, he drops way to many passes, and I am still reminded of the drop he had against Florida last year that doomed LSU to lose that game. He made one great catch on the TD drive in the 4th quarter, but Landry was making them all day. Mettenberger, Hill, and Landry are as legitimate as they come and that LSU offense is going to be okay, if they stay inspired through-out the game. And my last concern is fast tempo offenses on LSU's D. We saw it against Clemson and I think we saw it again a little bit against Auburn. Auburn ran 85 plays for 437 yards, which is the most given up by LSU this year. LSU only ran 66 plays. The offense must help the defense out against these style of offenses in the future and win the Time of Possession battle; Auburn actually had the ball for a minute longer than LSU. Passion needed all around for a full 60 minutes please.

As for Auburn, I was impressed, they didn't quit and they definitely look like they are on the right track. I wonder why Malzahn didn't throw deep on LSU more, then I realized it might have had something to do with the pressure that LSU was putting on Marshal early on. But when the fire was draining from the D, Gus took his chances.

And finally on the Les Miles watch we had this gem of an answer when asked to describe Jeremy Hill's running in the first half: "That was a "handling the weather..." You read that right, that was A "handling the weather." I had no idea that "handling the weather" could be a thing all it's own like that. And then he said, "a real heavy mist for this stadium." MIST?!?! Really Miles?!?! What do you consider rain?!?! So I guess it was "un-typically misty" in Baton Rogue Saturday night. All I know is that LSU D had better un-typically play hard all game against Georgia.

Now on to other Top 25 action:

Florida State, Ohio State, Miami, UCLA, Louisville, Washington, and Wisconsin beat all beat their opponents by a combined: 379 to 40.

Miami's back up quarterbacks were 17 of 19 for 231 yards and 3 touchdowns.
Wisconsin WAS mad as hell after Arizona State.

Michigan officially sucks after almost going to down to UCONN, well I told you all that the former Big East now the AAC was tough, but 2 more INT's from Gardner and this Wolverine train is not running on a full head of steam. Just like the rest of the B10.

Notre Dame ruined my predictions with a win over Michigan State - I haven't had a chance to watch this game yet so I don't have much to say, just bitter is all.

The real Stanford stood up in the first half, then sat back down in the second half but still beat Arizona State - I haven't had a chance to watch this one yet either, but I will!

And can we officially be worried about Alabama? They played their home opener against Colorado State and were far from dominating. Is the bar too high for this team? Are we expecting too much in the way of domination based on previous years? A win is a win I've always said, but when you only run for 66 yards, need a special teams touchdown again, and are only up 17-6 going into the 4th quarter... you have to wonder if they chinks in the armor are getting bigger. Oh yeah, they were also 2 for 10 on third down.

Texas A&m took part of my advice and ran the ball 48 times against SMU, won time of possession and dominated in a 42-13 drubbing. Manziel only threw 21 times and was efficient although he threw another pick. But A&M forced 3 turnovers, and that's what that defense needs to do if they are going to give up over 400 yards of offense. As we saw with Oklahoma State a few years ago, you can have a terrible defense, an amazing offense, and as long as the defense forces turnovers you can be one of the elite teams in the country. Only Oklahoma State didn't play in the SEC.

Georgia's win over North Texas really wasn't that close. The Bulldogs scored 45 and the defense technically only gave up 1 touchdown. I hate the fact that special teams touchdowns count against the defense. The Georgia special teams unit continues to be un-special and this is going to be a problem going forward. You can't give away 14 points like this in conference play and expect to be okay. A blocked punt and a kick-off return for touchdown is a break-down on all fronts.

Florida had an interesting day with their starting quarterback throwing a pick 6 and breaking his leg. At the leg break it was 7-0 Tennessee. Then Tyler Murphy came in and went 8/14 for 134 yards and a touchdown. Not world burning but Florida did get up 31-10 before they gave up a garbage TD to Tennessee late. The Florida defense did it again with 6 take-aways. Not ready to say the Florida offense fixed their issues, but they did score more points without Driskel then they have with him. Break something to fix something...

Clemson had a rough outing against NC State. I think the most surprising thing was how NC State was consistently wreaking havoc on the Clemson offensive line. It just goes to show that if the big boys up front don't dominate, the flashy guys on the edges can't get it down. Clemson tackling was less than great at times as well. Speaking of penalties at home, I counted at least 5 false starts on NC State.....are you kidding me? And as good as the call was in the LSU game, the call on the 83 yard end-round touchdown was just as bad. First of all they should have called it a touchdown, THEN reviewed it, instead of the other way around. And second of all...he was in-bounds. It seemed after this play you could see the air going out of the NC State balloon little by little until their was nothing left but a Clemson victory. I think the most troubling thing for Clemson was Tahj Boyd's body language...you are a senior, you are a quarterback, you are a Heisman candidate, you are the leader of this team...stop sulking like a baby, fire up your offensive line and get your ass in gear. Unbelievable.

Teams on my Watch List:

Welcome Texas Tech with a 33-7 victory. And the mantra will be, "Why not Texas Tech?"

Welcome Miami to the watch list with a 70 point victory, but Texas did not go quietly with a nice win themselves. This is a fluid situation.

UNC/Georgia Tech - what a slop fest in a "heavy mist" in Georgia. Some people call it rain. I was less than impressed by Georgia Tech's defense, maybe my expectations were too high? And they were playing UNC and Renner, but Renner had a terrible completion percentage; although he did make some amazing throws for touchdowns. The Georgia Tech running game never seemed to get really rolling to me, but in the end Georgia Tech defended the home turf and won 28-20, in a game that was very winnable for UNC. It seemed once the momentum turned for Tech in the second half UNC could not recover....and speaking of momentum swings:

Rutgers DID NOT lose, but I am still welcoming UTAH into the watch-list! Once again I have not watched the Utah game yet so I am with-holding any opinions at this time except, Pac12 watch out. This conference continues to get stronger and stronger. But I am really gearing up to talk about Rutgers. A team I had on my watch list and left for dead, but in retrospect I might have cut them off too early. I told you the former Big East, now the AAC conference was tough...too bad the Razorbacks didn't listen. I made the statement last week that Arkansas' running game and defense would be too much for Rutgers. Little did I know that Rutgers' defensive line would be too much for Arkansas' offensive line. The Hog defense was dominating for a time, they had a pick 6, they were sacking the quarterback all day, forcing fumbles and generally causing chaos. The offense wasn't spectacular for the Hogs but they were committed to the run, and with Collins running the ball...why not be? The back-up QB Derby made some good throws when he had to, but was not asked to do to much. But as good as the defense for Arkansas was, it wasn't good enough, I counted 2 dropped INT's and once the momentum shifted to Rutgers, the Hog D couldn't get stops. The tide turned on a huge punt return for a touchdown for Rutgers which made the score 24-14. Still nothing to be worried about at this point, but it only got worse from there. Rutgers was blowing up the Arkansas run game all day, Derby was high on a lot of throws, some that hurt the Razorbacks in the 4th quarter, and holes in the Hog secondary started opening up like festering wounds. The final straw came on the Hog drive after Rutgers made it 28-24, Derby was sacked on first down, then he hit RB Williams on a swing pass and for some reason Williams decided to run BACKWARDS, then it was 3rd and 24, then it was a punt, and that was at the 2:56 mark. I was in more than shock at what happened in this game. The Razorbacks came into a hostile environment, took control of the game just like I predicted, then they gave it away. 21 un-answered points for Rutgers. This is all too familiar to Razorback fans; having come from Arkansas myself I feel a certain kinship to this type of pain. Of course I had picked them to win so I was more upset about that. A text conversation to one of my best friends in Arkansas went something like this:
HIM: So much for your Arkansas praise...
ME: F****** B*******. It would be them. Sons of b******. I can't wait to write about that f****** game.
So it goes. My fiancee who lived in Arkansas most of her life had this tid-bit to say: "Maybe the Hogs' coach should start eating grass like that guy in LSU." I mean don't knock it till you try it right?

As for Rutgers though...Didn't I tell you that the former Big East, now the AAC is tough? And that loss to Fresno State looks less and less like a fluke as Fresno St continues to win and get into the polls.

So how did my predictions do? 8 out of 10 with only Arkansas and Michigan State coming up short.

As for my prediction of the Coaches' Top 10? I was "that" close with the only change coming this week was LSU switching spots with Louisville. So much for Rutgers beating an SEC team having a positive impact for Louisville.

Thanks for reading as always!!! I will be back later with my first part of my SEC defensive breakdown. I will have more to say about Notre Dame, Stanford, and Utah on Wednesday when we look ahead to this coming Saturday. This coming Saturday is going to be amazing. If you haven't peeked at this up-coming schedule, go do it now and start getting excited.

All comments are welcome at the bottom of this blog or to my email collegefootballfanweekly@gmail.com
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The REAL Top 10 Teams

Current Coaches Top 10 and my last prediction in parenthesis:

1. Alabama (Alabama)
2. Oregon (Oregon)
3. Ohio State (Ohio State)
4. Clemson (Stanford)
5. Stanford (Clemson)
6. Louisville (LSU)
7. LSU (Florida State)
8. Florida State (Louisville)
9. Texas A/M (Georgia)
10. Georgia (Oklahoma State)

My new prediction:

There will be no changes in the top 10 after every top 10 team won and most by blow-outs this weekend. I don't think Clemson gets punished for a sub-par showing on the road since they won, but I wouldn't be shocked to see LSU drop because of their 4th quarter performance against Auburn.

Now for the first time I will reveal MY own rankings. Call them power rankings if you want, but this is how I would rate the best teams in the country, based on a mixture of the eye-test, who they have played, and who would beat who in a neutral sight game:

1. Oregon
2. Clemson
3. LSU
4. Florida State
5. Stanford
6. Alabama
7. Texas A&M
8. Louisville
9. Ohio State
10. Georgia

Teams in bold would be my representatives in a 4 team play-off that starts next year.

Next up tomorrow will be my break-down of the LSU/Auburn game as well as my thoughts about other Top 25 action around the country.
I also hope to be posting PART 1 of my 4 part story on, "Whatever happened to defense in the SEC?"

Games to Watch Week 4 #LSU #Auburn

And here we are with another edition of what to watch this weekend! A couple house-keeping items for the blog real quick:
1a. If you absolutely HATE LSU, you might want to stay away for a couple weeks. They are going to be my game of the week this week and more than likely next week as well when they travel to Georgia. I will also be doing a huge write-up on "What-ever Happened to the Defenses of the SEC" in which LSU will be featured alongside the other 5 heavy weights of the division: Alabama, A&M, South Carolina, Georgia, and Florida.
1b. Be on the look-out for my "What-ever Happened to the Defenses of the SEC" which is looking like a multi-part story and promises to be the most epic thing I have done yet.
2. Starting this week I will be making predictions on my games to watch
3. On Saturday nights I will be posting my predictions for the Top 10 and on Sunday mornings I will post my game break-downs.
4. Oregon State will be replaced by Texas Tech on my Teams to Watch List with a Red Raider victory this week.
5. With a loss this week Rutgers will be removed from my Teams to Watch List and replaced with the winner of BYU and Utah.
6. With a Texas loss and a Miami victory, the Hurricanes will replace the Long Horns on my Teams to Watch List.

Now on with the show!

#Clemson(4)@North Carolina State on Thursday

Team with the most to lose: Clemson - What top 10 team can afford to lose to an un-ranked opponent? Florida State is already 1-0 in conference and Clemson must keep up. I doubt they have any problems.

Team with the most to gain: Someone could make a case for NCState becoming a sexy sleeper pick if they come with the upset, but there's not much substance here. They beat Louisiana Tech and barely beat Richmond. They do seem to keep it interesting in league play but never seem to be able to hold a ranking. But with a win over Clemson maybe they get the momentum to break through this year?

Top 25 Impact: HIGH with a NC State victory

Prediction: CLEMSON

#North Carolina@Georgia Tech

Team with the most to lose or win: Both are battling for a spot in the ACC Championship game and its all about this game. Who-ever wins this will probably take this side of the conference, IF they can get by Miami later on, but neither team wants to go into the Miami game with already having a loss. I think both of these teams are stronger than Miami, but I did think North Carolina was on top. After the first two weeks of the season I am not so sure. Georgia Tech is dominating and that UNC defense looks a lot worse than what I thought it would.

Top 25 Impact: MEDIUM to HIGH

Prediction: GEORGIA TECH 

#Tennessee@Florida(18)

Team with the most to lose: Florida - Another loss, and with this one being at home...national title hopes go bye-bye. Florida looks to rebound after that offensive embarrassment against Miami and put another embarrassment on Tennessee. I doubt they score more than Oregon did, but they had better look good doing it. Florida also becomes regarded as a lesser opponent for the rest of the SEC with a loss.

Team with the most to gain: Florida - I don't think people are ready to give up on Florida just yet, and a convincing win against Tennessee would be just enough for them to stick around. I don't see a huge jump up the polls after beating Tennessee immediately, but the gain here is counted in Florida not dropping completely out of the race.

Top 25 Impact: HIGH with a Tennessee victory

Prediction: FLORIDA

#Michigan State(24)@Notre Dame(21)

Team with the most to lose: Notre Dame - After a scare against Purdue a lot of experts are starting to echo the statements I made in the pre-season about Notre Dame. Tommy Rees may not be the answer and there's something wrong about this defense this year. They ain't who they used to be. A loss against Michigan State and they are out of the Top 25 and the chances of getting back to the top become excruciatingly difficult.

Team with the most to gain: Michigan State - The Spartans are 3-0 and have one of the best defenses in the country. The running game seems to be running on high gear and they have settled on a quarterback. A win against a Top 25 team, even an over-rated one would do wonders for the Spartans' season. Other than Michigan, a B10 team with an out of conference Top 25 victory is a rare thing. Even a B10 team PLAYING a top 25 team out of conference is a reach.

Top 25 Impact: Medium

Prediction: MICHIGAN STATE

#Arkansas@Rutgers

Team with the most to lose: Arkansas - They are riding a high right now that is higher than ANYTHING they accomplished last year. They have the first freshman running back in SEC history to rush for over 100 yards in the first 3 games of the year. They are looking better under Bielema, people are starting to believe, and momentum is already growing. Now they have a true road test against, (what I thought to be a sleeper), AAC Rutgers. This will be a nice step in the legitimate direction for the Hogs, as well as a good test of what Bielema has started to build; lets just hope they are not caught looking ahead to their home date against A&M next week. (The A&M game will bear some special examining next week, because it gives me a funny upset type feeling that must be explored.) This is a bragging rights game for the SEC against the AAC and I don't expect Arkansas to let the conference down.

Team with the most to gain: Louisville - They need Rutgers to beat Arkansas and bring legitimacy back to the AAC in the worst way. A Rutgers victory over an SEC foe like Arkansas and Louisville's national title hopes get a boost. A Rutgers loss and well, those hopes pretty much stay the same; just a mere hope. Maybe I should have reversed these: Arkansas is the team with the most to gain and Louisville is the team with the most to lose? Interesting.

Top 25 Impact: Medium

Prediction: ARKANSAS The running game and defense are WAY too much for Rutgers to handle

#Purdue@Wisconsin

Team with the most to lose: Wisconsin - Another loss and they may not see the Top 25 for a while. And this would be a loss at home to an un-ranked team: ugly. It will be interesting to see how Wisconsin responds to the adversity from last week at Arizona State. Will they hang their heads or are they coming out mad as hell?

Team with the most to gain: Purdue - They are a couple plays away from being 2-1. They are playing their 2nd top 25 team in 2 weeks and we will see if they are mentally up to it. This victory alone won't mean a whole lot unless they start stringing some together, but you have to start somewhere.

Top 25 Impact: Low to Medium

Prediction: WISCONSIN

#Arizona State(23)@Stanford(5)

Team with the most to lose: Arizona State - They JUST got into the Top 25, they JUST beat a Top 25 team, they are on the way to a break-through season; they CANNOT let the momentum go now. A win against Stanford would be HUGE for them and propel them into the Top 20 and put them on everybody's list. A loss here, and they are just another Pac12 team. Now, a loss for Stanford will hurt them, but they still play in the Pac12 and with victories against Washington, UCLA, and Oregon, this game would be forgiven.

Team with the most to gain: Arizona State - It's up and up with a victory here. And with Washington, UCLA, and Notre Dame as the only remaining ranked opponents on the schedule, the Sun Devils might be looking at a Pac12 championship game. That's still a big MIGHT however because Washington and UCLA are no push-overs this year.

Top 25 Impact: HIGH

Prediction: The REAL Stanford Cardinal shows up, not the sleep walker of the past 2 weeks

#Auburn@LSU(7)

Team with the most to lose: LSU - Death Valley at night, un-ranked opponent, LSU needs to continue to be impressive. A loss here and people will start doubting. However, if Auburn turns out to be legit, this is another loss that can be erased with LSU's up-coming schedule. But why make yourself have to climb up a mountain when you can take care of business up front? We will learn a LOT about these two teams here. Is Auburn for real? Is LSU's defense for real? Will LSU be looking ahead to Georgia? Will Les Miles give us more brutalization of the English language? You know the answer to that last one! And that answer is "un-typically."

Team with the most to gain: Auburn - They are back with a victory here. That's right I will lay it flat out right here and right now. Get Auburn ranked, people better stop sleeping on them, and we better start talking about coach of the year award for Gus Malzahn. I am a little weary of a defense that let Mississippi State control them, and almost gave up 500 yards to Washington State, but "Whatever Happened to Defense in the SEC?" anyways?  That's a teaser by the way.

Top 25 Impact: HIGH

Prediction: Typically: LSU

This is my Game of the Week selection and I will give a detailed break down on Sunday!!

#Utah@BYU

Team with the most to lose/gain: One of these teams gets respectable. Utah has had an extremely potent offense and is 3 turnovers away against Oregon State from being 3-0. They are a lot stronger than expected and will give teams in the Pac12 fits this year and that's not a bad team. BYU gave the game away in the season opener and then destroyed Texas. A win over a good Pac12 team immediately puts them on stage in my eyes, and with their schedule, they just might find themselves in the Top 20 by mid-season. Just don't ask them to throw the ball.

Top 25 Impact: LOW to MEDIUM

Prediction: UTAH

#New Mexico State@UCLA(15)

Team with the most to lose: UCLA - Un-ranked, 0-3 team comes into the Rose Bowl and knocks off the Bruins? Devastating. But the only reason this game is interesting is because UCLA is coming off of a HUGELY emotional win at Nebraska and they have another tough road test next week against Utah. This game has "trap" written all over it. Can UCLA dig down deep and show the heart of a champion?

Team with the most to gain: No one really gains anything here, UCLA just needs to not lose anything here.

Top 25 Impact: HIGH with a New Mexico State victory

Prediction: UCLA

Based on my predictions, teams on their way out of the top 25: Arizona State, Notre Dame

Based on my predictions, teams on their way into the top 25: Arkansas, Georgia Tech

Teams waiting in the wings: Wisconsin, Texas Tech (assuming they win)

Thanks for reading!! As always please leave any comments below or email them to me.

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