IT'S OPENING WEEK OF THE COLLEGE FOOTBALL SEASON!!! WHO'S READY?!?!?!
I am just a little excited about this. This year looks to be one of those years where every week there will be at least 1 game with huge Top 25 implications. Starting now!
Here are the games that I am most excited about this week and the reasons why.
Thursday: North Carolina@South Carolina
Wow, what a way to start a season.
Team that has the most to lose: South Carolina - getting beat by an un-ranked ACC team to start the season would not be the ideal way for South Carolina to start going after a BCS berth, not that they couldn't come back....but yeah they probably wouldn't be able to come back.
Team that has the most to gain: North Carolina - I have already stated how the season is set up for UNC, a win against SC would make them legit automatically and put them in the Top 25 I'm sure.
Potential impact on the Top 25: Medium to High
Alabama@Virginia Tech
Team with the most to lose: Alabama - in what is their biggest test outside of conference the number one team in the country cannot fall to the Hokies.
Team with the most to gain: Neither, a win for the Hokies will not mean much for them in the long run of this season and Alabama stays at #1 with a win.
Potential impact on the Top 25: Very high with an upset
Mississippi St@Oklahoma St
Team with the most to gain: Mississippi St - rebuilding year or are they going to build off the success of last year? Bragging rights for the SEC are on the line. Could get Miss St some respect and an outside shot of the Top 25.
Team with the most to lose: Oklahoma St - they cannot lose at home to an un-ranked team. This game could cost them nationally, but they aren't a Top 10 team either, but in the framework of the B12 this game doesn't mean much. *check out comment below for retraction*
Potential impact on the Top 25: Medium
Boise State@Washington
Team with the most to gain: Washington - can they get the monkey off their back and beat a Mountain West team as well as a ranked team? This could be the stepping stone to a season to remember for Washington.
Team with the most to lose: Washington - Or could this be a stepping stone to more of the same ole same ole....Boise could lose their top 25 ranking with a loss, but the love affair is hopefully over with them this year so a win over Washington wouldn't mean much either.
Potential impact on the Top 25: Low to Medium
Georgia@Clemson
Two of the best in the country going at it in week 1!!! Lots of offense in this one for sure!
Team with the most to gain: Clemson - they bolster their standing in the Top 10 and stay relevant through-out the entire season as long as they keep winning in the ACC which they should.
Team with the most to lose: This is pretty even between the two. A loss to a Top 10 team early in the season will not damn a team to destruction by the end of the year. Neither one drops out with a lose and neither one moves up very high with a win unless the teams in front lose or have bad showings.
Potential impact on the Top 25: Low
LSU and TCU at a neutral location
As offensive as Georgia/Clemson will be look for this game to be the absolute opposite. This is the game I will blogging about immediately after its completion on Saturday night!
Team with the most to gain: TCU - talk about respect, a boost nationally, and a way to put last year behind them! This is the gift TCU needs. But even if they lose, it won't hurt them in the B12 and it won't kill them nationally.
Team with the most to lose: LSU - if they lose this game, they plummet down the Top 25, if they play bad and still win, they could drop in the Top 25. LSU needs to dominate this game if they want to get back into the ranks of Bama, SC, Georgia, Florida and A&M.
Potential impact on the Top 25: High
Sunday: Ohio@Louisville
Team with the most to gain: Louisville - they start proving that last year wasn't a fluke and they deserve to be in the Top 10, although not much room to go up with a victory here.
Team with the most to lose: Louisville - they start proving that last year wasn't a fluke and they deserve to be in the Top 10...they wouldn't drop fast enough for some people with a loss.
Potential impact on the Top 25: Very high with an Ohio victory
Monday: Florida State@Pittsburgh
Team with the most to gain: Pitt - they have been trying to get relevant for years, a win against FSU in their first year AND first game in the ACC would go a long way to helping that.
Team with the most to lose: FSU - as I have stated, FSU is a team on the brink, are they going up or going down. They cannot afford to sleep against an un-ranked opponent and create an up-hill battle in the ACC and in the national spotlight.
Potential impact on the Top 25: High to Very High with a Pitt victory
That's it for now!! I will see all of you on Saturday when I post about LSU/TCU and the rest of the day's action!!
As always, please leave your comments below or send them to collegefootballfanweekly@gmail.com! OR starting today you can follow me on the ol' Twitter! Aubrey Mos@SimplyNCAAF where I will be live twitting during this week's games!
Wednesday, August 28, 2013
Saturday, August 24, 2013
College Football Teams to Watch in 2013
In preparation for the upcoming season I thought it might be appropriate to talk about a group of teams I feel need some attention this year. These are the "BIG 12", some are over-ranked, some are going to make some serious noise, but all of them bare a second look. At the end of the blog I will also tell who I think is the biggest mystery going into this season and who the most over-ranked teams are.
Northwestern
Records for the last 3 years
2010: 7-6
2011: 6-7
2012: 10-3
Reasons to be optimistic:
Northwestern only lost to Nebraska, Penn St, and Michigan and by very marginal scores. They were a handful of plays from being undefeated. But that's what separates the good teams from the elite teams, right? They also have 15 returning starters on both sides of the ball and had the 3rd best offense in the league last year.
Reasons to be doubtful:
The schedule does not do Northwestern any favors, they have to take trips to Madison and Lincoln, still host Michigan and Syracuse, and they play B10 darling Ohio State. One of the tougher schedules for a B10 team.
Bottom line: Northwestern could let the Ohio State game slip and still win their side of the division if they beat Nebraska and Michigan. This team is poised to do some damage, but they are not going to be able to surprise anyone this year. But I would not be shocked to see them in the B10 Title Game and then perhaps...just perhaps....The Rose Bowl at the end of the year.
Wisconsin
Records for the last 3 years
2010: 11-2
2011: 11-3
2012: 8-6
Reasons to be optimistic:
The Badgers also return a good chunk of last year's team with 14 coming back, and we can only hope they improved. The running backs will still be great and the defense should keep them in games. The Badger defense has only given up an average of 20 points for the past 3 years. One of the biggest reasons for hope is new coach Gary Anderson. He seems to be fitting in well, he has some talent to work with, and will keep the same no nonsense approach we all love from Wisconsin. The schedule is extremely favorable except for trips to Arizona St and Ohio St and a home game against Northwestern that should be a challenge.
Reasons to be doubtful:
If you look at the schedule last year Wisconsin beat Anderson's Utah St team and Nebraska for the only real feathers in the Badger cap. They lost to Ohio St, Michigan St, Penn St, Oregon St, and Nebraska in the regular season; not what we are used to seeing from Wisconsin. They have a struggle at the QB position right now, the spin doctors from Madison will say that both of them won games last year, but those wins only added up to 8. The other reason to be doubtful is...Gary Anderson. Yes, I know he "turned Utah St around" but he turned it around in the Mountain West where he still lost games to Bosie St, Oklahoma, Auburn, AND Wisconsin in the last 3 years. Who did Utah St beat last year to make that 11 win record impressive? It's okay if you don't know, because I don't either.
Bottom line:
This is a team in transition. If Anderson's record showed anything at Utah St, it's that he can recruit. Well this is his first year at Wisconsin and these are not his players. He has some extremely talented players, but not his players. Although he currently has the #33 ranked class of freshman incoming as of right now. The Wisconsin offense fell to 29 points a game last year after they averaged over 40 in 2011 and 2010. Do not get fooled by anyone beating the Wisconsin drum this year. They only made it to the Rose Bowl last year because someone had to go from the B10, but with Ohio St off sanctions and an improving Michigan and Northwestern, there's not enough room at the top.
Oregon State
Records for the last 3 years
2010: 5-7
2011: 3-9
2012: 9-4
Reasons to be optimistic:
Unlike Wisconsin, Oregon St has 2 quarterbacks that put up some stats, and they have 16 returning starters. Their schedule is very similar to last year with home games against Stanford, USC, and Washington, but they must go to Oregon. In Stanford last year they almost pulled off the upset.
Reasons to be doubtful:
They play on the wrong side of the conference with Oregon AND Stanford looming above them. They will need to beat at least 1 if not both in order to get major national recognition. The expectations are also there for the Beavers this year. They will not be sneaking up on anyone and we will see how they hold up under the pressure.
Bottom line:
Oregon State made a huge jump from 3-9 to 9-4 and I personally don't trust these kind of huge improvements. I expect somewhat of a let down this year, in one of those "this might actually be a better team than last year but with a worse record" type of scenarios. Make no mistake that Oregon State is on the way up, but sometimes you have take a step back in order to take 2 steps forward. I expect a decent bowl game out of this team this year, but they and the next two teams on the list, need to start winning these bowl games for the Pac12 to make the leap from what I called the 2nd worst conference in America, to potentially being the 2nd BEST conference in America.
Washington
Records for past 3 years
2010: 7-6
2011: 7-6
2012: 7-6
Reasons to be optimistic:
You can't ONLY win 7 games a year for the rest of eternity can you? It has to end sometime. This team has been knocking on the door for a while. The offensive line was banged up for most of last year and if they can get healthy it can only help. They also notched a HUGE win against Stanford last year. This is a team that can win the big game. And if you look at the last few recruiting classes Washington is no slouch. In 2011 the incoming class ranked 24th in the nation, in 2012 it was 23rd, and 2013 it is #19.
Reasons to be doubtful
Even with those recruiting classes Washington is still failing to put it together. In the same year they beat Stanford, they lost to Washington State...You can't do that and be a major player! The quarterback play is also up and down the past 2 years, although the struggles last year can partly be blamed on the offensive line. They also play on the wrong side of the Pac12 conference and have to play Stanford, Oregon, and Oregon State. This year they host Boise State and travel to UCLA.
Bottom line:
They should probably be better than 3 consecutive 7-6's. We need some consistency here, and with a schedule like they have that might be tough. They lost to Boise State in their bowl game last year and that has to stop as well. They have the talent, they have the schedule to make a name for themselves, but can they finally put it all together? It's hard to put much faith into a team that consistently is in-consistent, but this might be their year if Oregon or Stanford falter, if they can get past Oregon State. I don't expect them to be at the top, but a top mid-level bowl and a win will go a long way to helping the Pac12 as a whole. Don't let this team surprise you if they put it together.
UCLA
Records for the past 3 years
2010: 4-8
2011: 6-8
2012: 9-5
Reasons to be optimistic:
In 2012 they had the #19th ranked recruiting class which should help with losing 6 of their defensive starters. They also play on the OTHER side of the Pac12 which means they should be in the Pac12 title game unless they forfeit. There is a lot of excitement around this team and they definitely had a year to build upon. And a 3 point loss against Stanford in the re-match is nothing to be upset about.
Reasons to be doubtful:
UCLA went 9-5 last year and their biggest wins were against USC and Nebraska. Are you writing home to your mother about that? Didn't think so. They lost to Oregon State, Stanford twice, Baylor in the bowl game, and Cal. The losses to teams like Cal must stop, and if they are truly going to step up and bolster the Pac12 and themselves, they are going to have to beat the B12 or SEC if they should draw them again in a bowl. Their stud running back Jonathan Franklin is gone and so are 6 starters from their defense. The other major road block can be the schedule: Nebraska, Stanford, Oregon, and USC are all up again, but this time UCLA is on the road in all of those games. They also host Washington.
Bottom line:
UCLA is on the way up and will be helped by playing on the soft side of the Pac12. They have the schedule to prove themselves and will be worth every bit of praise nationally if they start winning the tough ones, ie: Stanford and/or Oregon. If they can play well on the road, I expect them to be at least 3-2 in the games I spoke about, which might be the only 2 losses they have all year. They are assured a spot in the Pac12 title game and once there; anything could happen, and if they make it to the Rose Bowl watch out, because chances are good that there will be no B12 or SEC team waiting there.
Ole Miss
Records for the past 3 years:
2010: 4-8
2011: 2-10
2012: 7-6
Reasons to be optimistic:
This is a team with true excitement, momentum, and returning almost everyone from a year ago. They had the #25 recruiting class in 2011 and the #5 recruiting class in 2013, with the number one recruit stolen from Alabama and LSU. This team was 3-5 in the SEC with losses against LSU (only 6 points), Vanderbilt (1 point), Georgia (not even close), Texas A&M (3 points), and Alabama. Who doesn't lose to 4 out of those 5 teams? And they were very close in couple of them.
Reasons to be doubtful:
No one in the SEC will be taking this team lightly this year. The expectations are also rising and I think last year was a case of too much too soon. They still have to play A&M, Alabama, LSU and Vanderbilt this year, as well as play Texas on the road and Mississippi State on the road. It's a hard climb up-hill in the SEC. If Ole Miss played in any other conference they might have a chance to win it.
Bottom line:
Ole Miss is better than last year. Their record will not show it. But another bowl berth and a win (against any other conference) is probably still a possibility. There will be growing pains for a team still learning how to win and deal with expectations. This is not their year, but next year I shudder to think of another powerhouse coming out of the SEC, or sadly, since this is the SEC, we may never know how good Ole Miss truly is by going by record alone.
Vanderbilt
Records the past 3 years
2010: 2-10
2011: 6-7
2012: 9-4
Reasons to be optimistic:
They have the #22 recruiting class coming in on a team that returns 17 starters and 17 seniors. These kids have grown for the past 3 years and are looking to put a crowning achievement on their careers. One player decided AGAINST the NFL in order to come back and help the Commodores do something special. They were 4-3 in the SEC last year with losses against Florida (14 points), Georgia (not even close again), and South Carolina (4 points). They are a team on the cusp of greatness.
Reasons to be doubtful
Like Ole Miss, Vandy faces an uphill battle in getting better in the SEC because Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina are always going to be on the schedule. This year they also have a trip to Texas A&M and a home game against Ole Miss. They have also had a season of turmoil as 4 players are involved in a rape case and a fifth who is one of their top wide-outs from a year ago has also been implicated. Can this team handle the distractions and the pressure?
Bottom line:
Like Ole Miss, we may never truly know how good Vanderbilt is. They are better than 60-70% of the country, but can they make people believe? I believe this team should be ranked, but they have to beat some SEC powerhouses to make it happen. This is a good team, but I don't see the teams ahead of them getting weaker. Too many at the top, but Vandy leads a very good SEC middle.
Texas
Records the past 3 years
2010: 5-7
2011: 8-5
2012: 9-4
Reasons to be optimistic:
In a conference that is full of questions and transitions this year, Texas looks like the lone team that is standing steady, and that just might be enough. They have been improving the past 3 years and last year they only lost to TCU (7 points), West Virginia (3 points), Kansas State, and Oklahoma. Granted the losses against WV and TCU cannot happen this year, but neither can losses against KState or Oklahoma. Texas is returning 19 starters and the offense continues to improve. In 2010 and 2011 the offense averaged in the 20's for points a game, last year was 35 points a game. In a conference that does not play defense that stat bodes very well. The recruiting classes have also been good with a #5 in 2011, #3 in 2012, and a #16 ranked class in 2013.
Reasons to be doubtful:
The defense returns 9 starters but loses Vaccaro and Okafor. Honestly I don't know if this is a good thing. As the offense has gotten better the defense was the opposite direction. In 2010 and 2011 they surrendered an average of 22-23 points a game but this jumped to 29 points a game last year, that trend cannot continue. The schedule is not a cake walk either with trips to West Virginia and TCU, but they do get the pleasure of hosting Oklahoma State. Another reason to wonder is; with all those good recruits coming in, can they finally deliver?
Bottom line:
This should be Texas' conference to win this year. They have the most stability coming into the year and appear to have been building to this point. They spent last year beating teams you would expect them to beat and losing to the teams you would expect them to lose to, with the exception of West Virginia. If their trend continues this should not be a re-occurring problem and expect Texas to beat even the teams they should lose to.
TCU
Records the past 3 years
2010: 13-0
2011: 11-2
2012: 7-6 (first year in B12)
Reasons to be optimistic
The first year is behind them and it was one to forget. But it was a rough season for the Horned Frogs. They lost their starting qb and got introduced to the B12 brand of offense, but still held their own at giving up only 22 points a game which is only half a point worse than in 2011. The problem was on offense as they dropped from 40 points a game in 2010 and 2011 to only 28 last year. Pachall is back and they now have a seasoned back-up who kept the ship afloat last year. It was not a typical TCU year with injuries, off the field issues, and the pressure of joining the B12.
Reasons to be doubtful:
They had a rough off-season with 2 starters quitting the team and some suspensions to go along with that. The schedule promises to be tough with an opener against LSU. But honestly the LSU game does not matter in the larger context of the B12. They must travel to Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State and had better be prepared to play some D.
Bottom line:
TCU should be Texas' hardest competition for the B12 crown this year. Having the best defense in the B12 and having offenses in transition all through the B12, TCU should be looking good. The game against UT is the game of the year for this conference.
Rutgers
Records the last 3 years
2010: 4-8
2011: 9-4
2012: 9-4
Reasons to be optimistic:
Recruits are coming to Rutgers; they ranked #24 in 2012 and #37 in 2013. In 2012 they shared the Big East title with Louisville and had one of the best defenses in the country. It was the first year for their new coach and they only came up a few plays short of beating Louisville at the end of the season.
Reasons to be doubtful:
The quarterback play is highly in-consistent, with the QB being the number one reason they lost to Louisville in the first place. The defense that was so tough last year lost 7 starters this off-season and even more players have been dismissed off the team. Coach Flood going into his second year has also decided to completely over-haul his coaching staff including new Defensive and Offensive coordinators.
Bottom line:
They won't get a lot of national recognition as the Big East turns into the AAC this year, but that's okay because Rutgers is heading to the B10. I see a step back for them this year but the future is definitely bright.
Georgia Tech
Records the past 3 years
2010: 6-7
2011: 8-5
2012: 7-7
Reasons to be optimistic:
They play on the weak side of the ACC with only UNC to worry about. They played Florida State and Miami close and have been trying to get to the next level for a couple years now. They beat USC and UNC both last year and have some momentum building. A trending pick for a lot of "experts."
Reasons to be doubtful:
They are scrapping their 3-4 system in favor of a 4-3. How quickly can the adjustments be made? The schedule is also tough with trips to Miami and Clemson. But they do get UNC, Syracuse, and Georgia at home. With so many mediocre seasons, has Ga Tech given enough to really be optimistic this year?
Bottom line:
They are a perfect middle of the road team in a perfect middle of the road conference. They spent most of last year losing to the teams they should lose to, ie: Fla St, Georgia, Clemson, and Miami and feasting on the rabble on their side of the conference. They showed flashes of something more, but I am not buying it at this time.
North Carolina
Records the last 3 years:
2010: 8-5
2011: 7-6
2010: 8-4
Reasons to be optimistic:
The only team they have to worry about on their side of the conference is Georgia Tech. They also have a 3 year starter at quarterback who will be playing consecutive seasons in the same system. This kid is for real and will put on a show this year. The average scoring for UNC went from 25-28 points a game in 2010 and 2011 to 41 points a game in 2012. They have also beat Clemson and Florida State within the last 3 years and have no reason to be scared, IF they had to play either of those two teams that is. The UNC schedule should set them up for a great season with trips to South Carolina, Georgia Tech, and a home game against Miami as the only worries.
Reasons to be doubtful:
They lost to Duke and Wake Forest last year. This kind of in-consistency must stop. UNC has had the #16 incoming class in 2011 and the #21 class in 2013, so with this kind of talent, losses to these kind of teams must stop. Last year UNC was not eligible to play for anything so this year they do not have the luxury of playing pressure free football.
Bottom line:
North Carolina is set up to have an amazing year and by all accounts should be in the ACC title game at the end of the year. And if Clemson or Florida State sleep on them... BCS buster indeed.
Now for part 2: The most over-ranked Teams going into 2013 are:
Oklahoma State, Notre Dame, Who-ever the B10 Champ is
Oklahoma State
Records the last 3 years:
2010: 11-2
2011: 12-1
2012: 8-5
Reasons to be optimistic:
Gundy's team will score points and will score a lot of them. They averaged 45 points a game last year and that was without Blackmon and Weedon. There are good recruits coming to Stillwater with the #23 class in 2011 and the #27 class in 2013.
Reasons to be doubtful:
In a recent trend this off-season Ok St joins the ranks of teams that will be going with 2 quarterbacks this year. Both played last year and like Wisconsin that only added up to 8 wins. I am not a fan of the dual quarterback theory because I believe a team needs a single leader. But, both of these guys can lead an offense to pay dirt. However, not only will Ok St have 2 quarterbacks, but they will have a new offensive
coordinator calling the plays. Recipe for success? Not so sure. There is also a slew of new assistants coming on-board as well. Too much transition for me, especially for a team that is supposed to win the B12. Another big sign of worry for this team: defense. If anyone is reading this in Stillwater, let me explain what a defense is, since I know this might be a confusing concept for you. A defense is a team of 11 players that take the field against an opposing team's offense and they try to take the ball away, force the other team to punt, and generally keep points off the board. Got it? The reason people in Stillwater may not know what a defense is? Is because the Cowboys don't play any. Here is their 4 year trend on points allowed per game: 2009/21 pts, 2010/26.4 pts, 2011/26.8 pts, 2012/28.2 pts. They keep getting worse...heaven forbid if the offense goes south for a game or two, this team ain't winning the close one. Look at this stat, last year in the Cowboys' 8 wins they gave up 131 points for an average of 16.38 points a game, NOT THAT BAD RIGHT??? In Ok St's 5 losses they gave up 236 POINTS FOR A 47 POINTS ALLOWED PER GAME!!! ARE YOU KIDDING ME?!?!? In 3 less games they gave up 105 points more!!! And the teams they beat to bring their points allowed down: Iowa St (10pts allowed), Savannah St (0 pts allowed), Kansas (10 pts allowed), Purdue (14 pts allowed), and a hurting TCU (14 pts allowed). Wow. Simply wow.
Bottom line: OVER-RANKED
Notre Dame
Records the past 3 years:
2010: 8-5
2011: 8-5
2012: 12-1
Reasons to be optimistic:
Tommy Rees is 14-4 as a starter in his career. USC and Oklahoma remain on the schedule. They have had 3 top 10 recruiting classes the last 3 years.
Reasons to be doubtful:
Tommy Rees is a turnover machine and Gholston isn't on the team. They lost another starting LB beside Te'o in the off season and that great defense got shown for all that they are against an extremely physical Alabama team. They have to make a trip to Stanford and play an improving Michigan team.
Bottom line:
I think we can all rest assured that last year was a fluke. This is not a bad team, but they were not a 12-0 team. They were a 9 win team that got lucky. This year will be a return to earth for them. A good season but not one deserving of their pre-season rank or any hype.
The B10 Champ
I know what you're thinking, I profiled Northwestern and Wisconsin, said nice things about Michigan and now I am saying that any B10 champ is over-rated? Yes, because in the case of Northwestern or any other team out the B10, they are relevant ONLY in relation to the B10. What Northwestern or Michigan or Ohio St or any other B10 team does in relation to the nation means nothing. None of these B10 are playing hard schedules because A) they aren't playing good teams outside the conference and B) they are playing each other. But I am sure that any team that starts making a name for themselves in the B10 will be vaulted into the Top 10 and be considered for bigger and better bowl games which is a travesty with so many deserving Pac12 and SEC teams out there. The best we can hope for is that all of these B10 teams end up with at least 1 loss and get taken out of the debate by mid-season.
And now the team that remains the biggest mystery going into the season: Florida State
Florida State is another team in transition, albeit a very talented team in transition. The defense is an absolute monster with 19.6 pts allowed in 2010, 15.1 pts allowed in 2011, and only 14.7 pts allowed in 2012. They are also bringing in great classes, #1 in 2011, #2 in 2012, and #9 in 2013. BUT, the defense has lost defensive coordinator Mark Stoops, and the defensive line is completely new, but not completely in-experienced. The entire staff has gone through an over-haul and even a new offensive coordinator has been brought in. The bright spot is a freshman qb named Winston who is looking to be the Florida version of Johnny Manziel, minus the sharpie. The schedule is favorable with only a road game to Clemson, a road game to Florida, and a season opener at Pitt to be wary of. But, as we all know, Florida State has a talent for sleeping on sub-par opponents (see NC State last year) and giving it all away. So what does all this mean for the Seminoles? I have no idea, but we should know soon enough.
That's it everybody, thanks for taking the time to read my post. If you have any comments please do not be shy, leave your comments at the end, or email me at collegefootballfanweekly@gmail.com or follow me on facebook at www.facebook.com/aubrey.mos. This promises to be an exciting season and I would love to share it with as many people as possible and have great debates every week!
Next post: Previewing Opening Week of the College Football Season!!! It's finally here!!!!!!!!
Northwestern
Records for the last 3 years
2010: 7-6
2011: 6-7
2012: 10-3
Reasons to be optimistic:
Northwestern only lost to Nebraska, Penn St, and Michigan and by very marginal scores. They were a handful of plays from being undefeated. But that's what separates the good teams from the elite teams, right? They also have 15 returning starters on both sides of the ball and had the 3rd best offense in the league last year.
Reasons to be doubtful:
The schedule does not do Northwestern any favors, they have to take trips to Madison and Lincoln, still host Michigan and Syracuse, and they play B10 darling Ohio State. One of the tougher schedules for a B10 team.
Bottom line: Northwestern could let the Ohio State game slip and still win their side of the division if they beat Nebraska and Michigan. This team is poised to do some damage, but they are not going to be able to surprise anyone this year. But I would not be shocked to see them in the B10 Title Game and then perhaps...just perhaps....The Rose Bowl at the end of the year.
Wisconsin
Records for the last 3 years
2010: 11-2
2011: 11-3
2012: 8-6
Reasons to be optimistic:
The Badgers also return a good chunk of last year's team with 14 coming back, and we can only hope they improved. The running backs will still be great and the defense should keep them in games. The Badger defense has only given up an average of 20 points for the past 3 years. One of the biggest reasons for hope is new coach Gary Anderson. He seems to be fitting in well, he has some talent to work with, and will keep the same no nonsense approach we all love from Wisconsin. The schedule is extremely favorable except for trips to Arizona St and Ohio St and a home game against Northwestern that should be a challenge.
Reasons to be doubtful:
If you look at the schedule last year Wisconsin beat Anderson's Utah St team and Nebraska for the only real feathers in the Badger cap. They lost to Ohio St, Michigan St, Penn St, Oregon St, and Nebraska in the regular season; not what we are used to seeing from Wisconsin. They have a struggle at the QB position right now, the spin doctors from Madison will say that both of them won games last year, but those wins only added up to 8. The other reason to be doubtful is...Gary Anderson. Yes, I know he "turned Utah St around" but he turned it around in the Mountain West where he still lost games to Bosie St, Oklahoma, Auburn, AND Wisconsin in the last 3 years. Who did Utah St beat last year to make that 11 win record impressive? It's okay if you don't know, because I don't either.
Bottom line:
This is a team in transition. If Anderson's record showed anything at Utah St, it's that he can recruit. Well this is his first year at Wisconsin and these are not his players. He has some extremely talented players, but not his players. Although he currently has the #33 ranked class of freshman incoming as of right now. The Wisconsin offense fell to 29 points a game last year after they averaged over 40 in 2011 and 2010. Do not get fooled by anyone beating the Wisconsin drum this year. They only made it to the Rose Bowl last year because someone had to go from the B10, but with Ohio St off sanctions and an improving Michigan and Northwestern, there's not enough room at the top.
Oregon State
Records for the last 3 years
2010: 5-7
2011: 3-9
2012: 9-4
Reasons to be optimistic:
Unlike Wisconsin, Oregon St has 2 quarterbacks that put up some stats, and they have 16 returning starters. Their schedule is very similar to last year with home games against Stanford, USC, and Washington, but they must go to Oregon. In Stanford last year they almost pulled off the upset.
Reasons to be doubtful:
They play on the wrong side of the conference with Oregon AND Stanford looming above them. They will need to beat at least 1 if not both in order to get major national recognition. The expectations are also there for the Beavers this year. They will not be sneaking up on anyone and we will see how they hold up under the pressure.
Bottom line:
Oregon State made a huge jump from 3-9 to 9-4 and I personally don't trust these kind of huge improvements. I expect somewhat of a let down this year, in one of those "this might actually be a better team than last year but with a worse record" type of scenarios. Make no mistake that Oregon State is on the way up, but sometimes you have take a step back in order to take 2 steps forward. I expect a decent bowl game out of this team this year, but they and the next two teams on the list, need to start winning these bowl games for the Pac12 to make the leap from what I called the 2nd worst conference in America, to potentially being the 2nd BEST conference in America.
Washington
Records for past 3 years
2010: 7-6
2011: 7-6
2012: 7-6
Reasons to be optimistic:
You can't ONLY win 7 games a year for the rest of eternity can you? It has to end sometime. This team has been knocking on the door for a while. The offensive line was banged up for most of last year and if they can get healthy it can only help. They also notched a HUGE win against Stanford last year. This is a team that can win the big game. And if you look at the last few recruiting classes Washington is no slouch. In 2011 the incoming class ranked 24th in the nation, in 2012 it was 23rd, and 2013 it is #19.
Reasons to be doubtful
Even with those recruiting classes Washington is still failing to put it together. In the same year they beat Stanford, they lost to Washington State...You can't do that and be a major player! The quarterback play is also up and down the past 2 years, although the struggles last year can partly be blamed on the offensive line. They also play on the wrong side of the Pac12 conference and have to play Stanford, Oregon, and Oregon State. This year they host Boise State and travel to UCLA.
Bottom line:
They should probably be better than 3 consecutive 7-6's. We need some consistency here, and with a schedule like they have that might be tough. They lost to Boise State in their bowl game last year and that has to stop as well. They have the talent, they have the schedule to make a name for themselves, but can they finally put it all together? It's hard to put much faith into a team that consistently is in-consistent, but this might be their year if Oregon or Stanford falter, if they can get past Oregon State. I don't expect them to be at the top, but a top mid-level bowl and a win will go a long way to helping the Pac12 as a whole. Don't let this team surprise you if they put it together.
UCLA
Records for the past 3 years
2010: 4-8
2011: 6-8
2012: 9-5
Reasons to be optimistic:
In 2012 they had the #19th ranked recruiting class which should help with losing 6 of their defensive starters. They also play on the OTHER side of the Pac12 which means they should be in the Pac12 title game unless they forfeit. There is a lot of excitement around this team and they definitely had a year to build upon. And a 3 point loss against Stanford in the re-match is nothing to be upset about.
Reasons to be doubtful:
UCLA went 9-5 last year and their biggest wins were against USC and Nebraska. Are you writing home to your mother about that? Didn't think so. They lost to Oregon State, Stanford twice, Baylor in the bowl game, and Cal. The losses to teams like Cal must stop, and if they are truly going to step up and bolster the Pac12 and themselves, they are going to have to beat the B12 or SEC if they should draw them again in a bowl. Their stud running back Jonathan Franklin is gone and so are 6 starters from their defense. The other major road block can be the schedule: Nebraska, Stanford, Oregon, and USC are all up again, but this time UCLA is on the road in all of those games. They also host Washington.
Bottom line:
UCLA is on the way up and will be helped by playing on the soft side of the Pac12. They have the schedule to prove themselves and will be worth every bit of praise nationally if they start winning the tough ones, ie: Stanford and/or Oregon. If they can play well on the road, I expect them to be at least 3-2 in the games I spoke about, which might be the only 2 losses they have all year. They are assured a spot in the Pac12 title game and once there; anything could happen, and if they make it to the Rose Bowl watch out, because chances are good that there will be no B12 or SEC team waiting there.
Ole Miss
Records for the past 3 years:
2010: 4-8
2011: 2-10
2012: 7-6
Reasons to be optimistic:
This is a team with true excitement, momentum, and returning almost everyone from a year ago. They had the #25 recruiting class in 2011 and the #5 recruiting class in 2013, with the number one recruit stolen from Alabama and LSU. This team was 3-5 in the SEC with losses against LSU (only 6 points), Vanderbilt (1 point), Georgia (not even close), Texas A&M (3 points), and Alabama. Who doesn't lose to 4 out of those 5 teams? And they were very close in couple of them.
Reasons to be doubtful:
No one in the SEC will be taking this team lightly this year. The expectations are also rising and I think last year was a case of too much too soon. They still have to play A&M, Alabama, LSU and Vanderbilt this year, as well as play Texas on the road and Mississippi State on the road. It's a hard climb up-hill in the SEC. If Ole Miss played in any other conference they might have a chance to win it.
Bottom line:
Ole Miss is better than last year. Their record will not show it. But another bowl berth and a win (against any other conference) is probably still a possibility. There will be growing pains for a team still learning how to win and deal with expectations. This is not their year, but next year I shudder to think of another powerhouse coming out of the SEC, or sadly, since this is the SEC, we may never know how good Ole Miss truly is by going by record alone.
Vanderbilt
Records the past 3 years
2010: 2-10
2011: 6-7
2012: 9-4
Reasons to be optimistic:
They have the #22 recruiting class coming in on a team that returns 17 starters and 17 seniors. These kids have grown for the past 3 years and are looking to put a crowning achievement on their careers. One player decided AGAINST the NFL in order to come back and help the Commodores do something special. They were 4-3 in the SEC last year with losses against Florida (14 points), Georgia (not even close again), and South Carolina (4 points). They are a team on the cusp of greatness.
Reasons to be doubtful
Like Ole Miss, Vandy faces an uphill battle in getting better in the SEC because Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina are always going to be on the schedule. This year they also have a trip to Texas A&M and a home game against Ole Miss. They have also had a season of turmoil as 4 players are involved in a rape case and a fifth who is one of their top wide-outs from a year ago has also been implicated. Can this team handle the distractions and the pressure?
Bottom line:
Like Ole Miss, we may never truly know how good Vanderbilt is. They are better than 60-70% of the country, but can they make people believe? I believe this team should be ranked, but they have to beat some SEC powerhouses to make it happen. This is a good team, but I don't see the teams ahead of them getting weaker. Too many at the top, but Vandy leads a very good SEC middle.
Texas
Records the past 3 years
2010: 5-7
2011: 8-5
2012: 9-4
Reasons to be optimistic:
In a conference that is full of questions and transitions this year, Texas looks like the lone team that is standing steady, and that just might be enough. They have been improving the past 3 years and last year they only lost to TCU (7 points), West Virginia (3 points), Kansas State, and Oklahoma. Granted the losses against WV and TCU cannot happen this year, but neither can losses against KState or Oklahoma. Texas is returning 19 starters and the offense continues to improve. In 2010 and 2011 the offense averaged in the 20's for points a game, last year was 35 points a game. In a conference that does not play defense that stat bodes very well. The recruiting classes have also been good with a #5 in 2011, #3 in 2012, and a #16 ranked class in 2013.
Reasons to be doubtful:
The defense returns 9 starters but loses Vaccaro and Okafor. Honestly I don't know if this is a good thing. As the offense has gotten better the defense was the opposite direction. In 2010 and 2011 they surrendered an average of 22-23 points a game but this jumped to 29 points a game last year, that trend cannot continue. The schedule is not a cake walk either with trips to West Virginia and TCU, but they do get the pleasure of hosting Oklahoma State. Another reason to wonder is; with all those good recruits coming in, can they finally deliver?
Bottom line:
This should be Texas' conference to win this year. They have the most stability coming into the year and appear to have been building to this point. They spent last year beating teams you would expect them to beat and losing to the teams you would expect them to lose to, with the exception of West Virginia. If their trend continues this should not be a re-occurring problem and expect Texas to beat even the teams they should lose to.
TCU
Records the past 3 years
2010: 13-0
2011: 11-2
2012: 7-6 (first year in B12)
Reasons to be optimistic
The first year is behind them and it was one to forget. But it was a rough season for the Horned Frogs. They lost their starting qb and got introduced to the B12 brand of offense, but still held their own at giving up only 22 points a game which is only half a point worse than in 2011. The problem was on offense as they dropped from 40 points a game in 2010 and 2011 to only 28 last year. Pachall is back and they now have a seasoned back-up who kept the ship afloat last year. It was not a typical TCU year with injuries, off the field issues, and the pressure of joining the B12.
Reasons to be doubtful:
They had a rough off-season with 2 starters quitting the team and some suspensions to go along with that. The schedule promises to be tough with an opener against LSU. But honestly the LSU game does not matter in the larger context of the B12. They must travel to Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State and had better be prepared to play some D.
Bottom line:
TCU should be Texas' hardest competition for the B12 crown this year. Having the best defense in the B12 and having offenses in transition all through the B12, TCU should be looking good. The game against UT is the game of the year for this conference.
Rutgers
Records the last 3 years
2010: 4-8
2011: 9-4
2012: 9-4
Reasons to be optimistic:
Recruits are coming to Rutgers; they ranked #24 in 2012 and #37 in 2013. In 2012 they shared the Big East title with Louisville and had one of the best defenses in the country. It was the first year for their new coach and they only came up a few plays short of beating Louisville at the end of the season.
Reasons to be doubtful:
The quarterback play is highly in-consistent, with the QB being the number one reason they lost to Louisville in the first place. The defense that was so tough last year lost 7 starters this off-season and even more players have been dismissed off the team. Coach Flood going into his second year has also decided to completely over-haul his coaching staff including new Defensive and Offensive coordinators.
Bottom line:
They won't get a lot of national recognition as the Big East turns into the AAC this year, but that's okay because Rutgers is heading to the B10. I see a step back for them this year but the future is definitely bright.
Georgia Tech
Records the past 3 years
2010: 6-7
2011: 8-5
2012: 7-7
Reasons to be optimistic:
They play on the weak side of the ACC with only UNC to worry about. They played Florida State and Miami close and have been trying to get to the next level for a couple years now. They beat USC and UNC both last year and have some momentum building. A trending pick for a lot of "experts."
Reasons to be doubtful:
They are scrapping their 3-4 system in favor of a 4-3. How quickly can the adjustments be made? The schedule is also tough with trips to Miami and Clemson. But they do get UNC, Syracuse, and Georgia at home. With so many mediocre seasons, has Ga Tech given enough to really be optimistic this year?
Bottom line:
They are a perfect middle of the road team in a perfect middle of the road conference. They spent most of last year losing to the teams they should lose to, ie: Fla St, Georgia, Clemson, and Miami and feasting on the rabble on their side of the conference. They showed flashes of something more, but I am not buying it at this time.
North Carolina
Records the last 3 years:
2010: 8-5
2011: 7-6
2010: 8-4
Reasons to be optimistic:
The only team they have to worry about on their side of the conference is Georgia Tech. They also have a 3 year starter at quarterback who will be playing consecutive seasons in the same system. This kid is for real and will put on a show this year. The average scoring for UNC went from 25-28 points a game in 2010 and 2011 to 41 points a game in 2012. They have also beat Clemson and Florida State within the last 3 years and have no reason to be scared, IF they had to play either of those two teams that is. The UNC schedule should set them up for a great season with trips to South Carolina, Georgia Tech, and a home game against Miami as the only worries.
Reasons to be doubtful:
They lost to Duke and Wake Forest last year. This kind of in-consistency must stop. UNC has had the #16 incoming class in 2011 and the #21 class in 2013, so with this kind of talent, losses to these kind of teams must stop. Last year UNC was not eligible to play for anything so this year they do not have the luxury of playing pressure free football.
Bottom line:
North Carolina is set up to have an amazing year and by all accounts should be in the ACC title game at the end of the year. And if Clemson or Florida State sleep on them... BCS buster indeed.
Now for part 2: The most over-ranked Teams going into 2013 are:
Oklahoma State, Notre Dame, Who-ever the B10 Champ is
Oklahoma State
Records the last 3 years:
2010: 11-2
2011: 12-1
2012: 8-5
Reasons to be optimistic:
Gundy's team will score points and will score a lot of them. They averaged 45 points a game last year and that was without Blackmon and Weedon. There are good recruits coming to Stillwater with the #23 class in 2011 and the #27 class in 2013.
Reasons to be doubtful:
In a recent trend this off-season Ok St joins the ranks of teams that will be going with 2 quarterbacks this year. Both played last year and like Wisconsin that only added up to 8 wins. I am not a fan of the dual quarterback theory because I believe a team needs a single leader. But, both of these guys can lead an offense to pay dirt. However, not only will Ok St have 2 quarterbacks, but they will have a new offensive
coordinator calling the plays. Recipe for success? Not so sure. There is also a slew of new assistants coming on-board as well. Too much transition for me, especially for a team that is supposed to win the B12. Another big sign of worry for this team: defense. If anyone is reading this in Stillwater, let me explain what a defense is, since I know this might be a confusing concept for you. A defense is a team of 11 players that take the field against an opposing team's offense and they try to take the ball away, force the other team to punt, and generally keep points off the board. Got it? The reason people in Stillwater may not know what a defense is? Is because the Cowboys don't play any. Here is their 4 year trend on points allowed per game: 2009/21 pts, 2010/26.4 pts, 2011/26.8 pts, 2012/28.2 pts. They keep getting worse...heaven forbid if the offense goes south for a game or two, this team ain't winning the close one. Look at this stat, last year in the Cowboys' 8 wins they gave up 131 points for an average of 16.38 points a game, NOT THAT BAD RIGHT??? In Ok St's 5 losses they gave up 236 POINTS FOR A 47 POINTS ALLOWED PER GAME!!! ARE YOU KIDDING ME?!?!? In 3 less games they gave up 105 points more!!! And the teams they beat to bring their points allowed down: Iowa St (10pts allowed), Savannah St (0 pts allowed), Kansas (10 pts allowed), Purdue (14 pts allowed), and a hurting TCU (14 pts allowed). Wow. Simply wow.
Bottom line: OVER-RANKED
Notre Dame
Records the past 3 years:
2010: 8-5
2011: 8-5
2012: 12-1
Reasons to be optimistic:
Tommy Rees is 14-4 as a starter in his career. USC and Oklahoma remain on the schedule. They have had 3 top 10 recruiting classes the last 3 years.
Reasons to be doubtful:
Tommy Rees is a turnover machine and Gholston isn't on the team. They lost another starting LB beside Te'o in the off season and that great defense got shown for all that they are against an extremely physical Alabama team. They have to make a trip to Stanford and play an improving Michigan team.
Bottom line:
I think we can all rest assured that last year was a fluke. This is not a bad team, but they were not a 12-0 team. They were a 9 win team that got lucky. This year will be a return to earth for them. A good season but not one deserving of their pre-season rank or any hype.
The B10 Champ
I know what you're thinking, I profiled Northwestern and Wisconsin, said nice things about Michigan and now I am saying that any B10 champ is over-rated? Yes, because in the case of Northwestern or any other team out the B10, they are relevant ONLY in relation to the B10. What Northwestern or Michigan or Ohio St or any other B10 team does in relation to the nation means nothing. None of these B10 are playing hard schedules because A) they aren't playing good teams outside the conference and B) they are playing each other. But I am sure that any team that starts making a name for themselves in the B10 will be vaulted into the Top 10 and be considered for bigger and better bowl games which is a travesty with so many deserving Pac12 and SEC teams out there. The best we can hope for is that all of these B10 teams end up with at least 1 loss and get taken out of the debate by mid-season.
And now the team that remains the biggest mystery going into the season: Florida State
Florida State is another team in transition, albeit a very talented team in transition. The defense is an absolute monster with 19.6 pts allowed in 2010, 15.1 pts allowed in 2011, and only 14.7 pts allowed in 2012. They are also bringing in great classes, #1 in 2011, #2 in 2012, and #9 in 2013. BUT, the defense has lost defensive coordinator Mark Stoops, and the defensive line is completely new, but not completely in-experienced. The entire staff has gone through an over-haul and even a new offensive coordinator has been brought in. The bright spot is a freshman qb named Winston who is looking to be the Florida version of Johnny Manziel, minus the sharpie. The schedule is favorable with only a road game to Clemson, a road game to Florida, and a season opener at Pitt to be wary of. But, as we all know, Florida State has a talent for sleeping on sub-par opponents (see NC State last year) and giving it all away. So what does all this mean for the Seminoles? I have no idea, but we should know soon enough.
That's it everybody, thanks for taking the time to read my post. If you have any comments please do not be shy, leave your comments at the end, or email me at collegefootballfanweekly@gmail.com or follow me on facebook at www.facebook.com/aubrey.mos. This promises to be an exciting season and I would love to share it with as many people as possible and have great debates every week!
Next post: Previewing Opening Week of the College Football Season!!! It's finally here!!!!!!!!
Wednesday, August 14, 2013
The Johnny Manziel Overflow
Let me be frank up front: I did not want to write a WORD about ol Johnny Football. So why am I? First of all, I write a college football blog, and second of all, it's a college football story and could have a very SIGNIFICANT impact on the season. Third, I lived in College Station, Texas and I still have some very good friends that live down there, so hopefully I will do them and all the good people of Aggieland justice, as well as all of you reading this. And last but not least, this story did not become intriguing to write about until I started to contemplate the larger social picture of what this whole mess means.
I am going to start with a brief history of Texas A&M football in order to paint the proper picture that this story deserves.
They year is 2010 and A&M is riding high on the wave of Ryan Tannehill and Mike Sherman. They have a 9-3 record out of the Big 12 and they are going to the Cotton Bowl to play LSU. This is the start of something big after a pedestrial 6-7 2009 season and a bowl game pounding by Georgia. Different year, different bowl, different SEC team equals same result however.
The year is 2011 and Texas A&M is ranked 9th to start the season and that's when the wheels falls off. A 7-6 record and a win in the Car Care Bowl later and both Tannehill and Sherman are gone for different reasons. Here comes Coach Sumlin and a recruit named Johnny. So this is an under-achieving team in transition that is going into its first year in the SEC. A sure fire recipe for disaster, no question.
They play Florida tough. They blow out Arkansas. They beat Ole Miss. People are starting to talk. They play LSU tough. They blow out Auburn and Mississippi State. People are starting to believe. Then IT happened. They beat Alabama in Alabama. Boom. If the legend hadn't already been born it came screaming into existence here. The Aggies cruise through the rest of the season including a blow-out win of Oklahoma in the Cotton and little Johnny wins the Heisman as a freshman.
Now that brings us to expectations for 2013.
Boom.
The Aggies, former and present, take their football EXTREMELY seriously. One of the most rabid fan bases in all of the country. Saturdays are a maroon ritual. I had to lobby to change the dress code in the store I managed so the associates could wear maroon. Every business has to have maroon or an A&M banner. And boy were these boys and girls excited. So if the pressure of being a starting quarterback on a Division I school as a freshman wasn't enough, add on the pressure of the SEC, add on the pressure of an excited Aggie nation, add on the pressure of winning a Heisman as a freshman, add on the expectations of NEXT season from your team-mates, from your fan base, from the ENTIRE NATION. I even said in my first blog, Texas A&M is the #2 team in the country with Manziel.
Johnny Manziel is 20 years old.
Let that sink in for a minute.
Do we forget the fact, as a nation, that when we watch college football, we are watching KIDS play a GAME? Let that sink in for another minute.
What 20 year old do you know would be able to handle all that pressure at one time? Hell, there are grown men/women that couldn't handle all that.
So he acts like a dick, stress does that to people. He doesn't want to go to regular class, can you imagine what would happen after a loss, say in Week 3 to Alabama in which he didn't play well? He may have drank while under-age...is that his problem alone? So he got a ticket, College Station PD don't play. Yes, he tweeted that he wanted out of College Station, maybe he does. Maybe he was not ready for that level of celebrity. He's done some immature things. Are people born leaders or are they molded? Where would Abe Lincoln or George Washington be today if they had had Twitter as teenagers?
He's a kid and from what I understand he had a GOOD life growing up and probably didn't have to deal with much in the way of LIFE till he came to A&M. Whose fault is that? We all want the best for our children so they don't have to go through the hardships we did.
Now, before we get out the violin for Johnny M here, this is not a defense column about him. Because if Johnny M DID sell autographed merchandise, which he should KNOW is against some buried law in the NCAA rule-book (didn't we just watch Ohio State go through something like this?), that is plain dumb. It is plain STUPID. This has nothing to do with pressure, it has nothing to do with expectations, it's just plain dumb. Just plain stupid. Does he give a damn? Did he plan on pissing his college career away along with the hopes and dreams of his team and fans? Now I firmly believe in innocent until proven guilty, so I am not going to comment on whether or not I believe individuals who drag celebrities into hotel rooms to sign merchandise for a profit to be up-standing pillars of the community, but neither should have Johnny. Bottom line is, rules are rules (no matter how ridiculous), and if you decide to break one as big as this, you ARE just plain dumb and deserve whatever comes your way.
My biggest question about this whole doing is: Why does it matter?!?! Why do these rules exist? I know other people have tooted this horn but now I am going to blow on it myself. To quote Ty Webb from Caddyshack: "This isn't Russia. Is this Russia? This isn't Russia." This is good ole 100% Capitalistic for better or worse USA. Except if you are playing for the NCAA. Since President Obama likes to talk college ball so much and be involved, why doesn't he figure out how in the land of the free, we have a communistic society as big as the NCAA existing in our borders. I'm ready to bring out the brooms and declare shenanigans!
Come on people. Being paid for merchandise is not being paid to play, so they are still amateurs, (why that matters I do not have a clue), nor do I believe college players should get paid to play; it's called a scholarship. But so what if they are popular enough now that people want their autograph? No one is going to want it after they blow out a knee and don't get drafted. It's their personal life. The market determines the value. If you want to sell your championship ring, do it, you earned it, you can do what you want with it, the NCAA doesn't own the ring or you. (Although if you play for them they apparently do.) If someone wants to pay you for an autograph, so be it. Why does the NCAA care? And for that matter, why do we care. It's a free market, we want it, Americans get what they want, let these kids enjoy their celebrity because as the philosopher once said, "All glory is fleeting."
Then to put the rotten cherry on top of this moldy cake we get this bit of gold from the NCAA: they are no longer going to sell individual jerseys and other team-related merchandise on its website. You mean to tell me the NCAA was selling individualized jerseys?!?!? Three cheers for Jay Bilas of ESPN for exposing this. The president of the NCAA was then afraid that this looked hypocritical. REALLY?!?! Wow, he is president for a damn reason I'm telling you, nothing gets past this guy, except that the NCAA was selling personalized jerseys of the most popular players. But the NCAA received no money off of those sales, so they say....someone did though, and it wasn't the players, that much I know for sure. Absolute bull. The NCAA also said that they will no longer sell college and university merchandise...what the hell are they going to sell?? Am I missing something here? Let me know. I didn't shop the website before it was shut-down, but why would I shop it now after it comes back? The statement said that the website will be selling NCAA Championship Merchandise...what does that mean??!?! ...If only the Ohio State players had waited a few years they could have sold their crap online through the NCAA....
As always, any and all comments are welcome on the blog site and to my email: collegefootballfanweekly@gmail.com
I am going to start with a brief history of Texas A&M football in order to paint the proper picture that this story deserves.
They year is 2010 and A&M is riding high on the wave of Ryan Tannehill and Mike Sherman. They have a 9-3 record out of the Big 12 and they are going to the Cotton Bowl to play LSU. This is the start of something big after a pedestrial 6-7 2009 season and a bowl game pounding by Georgia. Different year, different bowl, different SEC team equals same result however.
The year is 2011 and Texas A&M is ranked 9th to start the season and that's when the wheels falls off. A 7-6 record and a win in the Car Care Bowl later and both Tannehill and Sherman are gone for different reasons. Here comes Coach Sumlin and a recruit named Johnny. So this is an under-achieving team in transition that is going into its first year in the SEC. A sure fire recipe for disaster, no question.
They play Florida tough. They blow out Arkansas. They beat Ole Miss. People are starting to talk. They play LSU tough. They blow out Auburn and Mississippi State. People are starting to believe. Then IT happened. They beat Alabama in Alabama. Boom. If the legend hadn't already been born it came screaming into existence here. The Aggies cruise through the rest of the season including a blow-out win of Oklahoma in the Cotton and little Johnny wins the Heisman as a freshman.
Now that brings us to expectations for 2013.
Boom.
The Aggies, former and present, take their football EXTREMELY seriously. One of the most rabid fan bases in all of the country. Saturdays are a maroon ritual. I had to lobby to change the dress code in the store I managed so the associates could wear maroon. Every business has to have maroon or an A&M banner. And boy were these boys and girls excited. So if the pressure of being a starting quarterback on a Division I school as a freshman wasn't enough, add on the pressure of the SEC, add on the pressure of an excited Aggie nation, add on the pressure of winning a Heisman as a freshman, add on the expectations of NEXT season from your team-mates, from your fan base, from the ENTIRE NATION. I even said in my first blog, Texas A&M is the #2 team in the country with Manziel.
Johnny Manziel is 20 years old.
Let that sink in for a minute.
Do we forget the fact, as a nation, that when we watch college football, we are watching KIDS play a GAME? Let that sink in for another minute.
What 20 year old do you know would be able to handle all that pressure at one time? Hell, there are grown men/women that couldn't handle all that.
So he acts like a dick, stress does that to people. He doesn't want to go to regular class, can you imagine what would happen after a loss, say in Week 3 to Alabama in which he didn't play well? He may have drank while under-age...is that his problem alone? So he got a ticket, College Station PD don't play. Yes, he tweeted that he wanted out of College Station, maybe he does. Maybe he was not ready for that level of celebrity. He's done some immature things. Are people born leaders or are they molded? Where would Abe Lincoln or George Washington be today if they had had Twitter as teenagers?
He's a kid and from what I understand he had a GOOD life growing up and probably didn't have to deal with much in the way of LIFE till he came to A&M. Whose fault is that? We all want the best for our children so they don't have to go through the hardships we did.
Now, before we get out the violin for Johnny M here, this is not a defense column about him. Because if Johnny M DID sell autographed merchandise, which he should KNOW is against some buried law in the NCAA rule-book (didn't we just watch Ohio State go through something like this?), that is plain dumb. It is plain STUPID. This has nothing to do with pressure, it has nothing to do with expectations, it's just plain dumb. Just plain stupid. Does he give a damn? Did he plan on pissing his college career away along with the hopes and dreams of his team and fans? Now I firmly believe in innocent until proven guilty, so I am not going to comment on whether or not I believe individuals who drag celebrities into hotel rooms to sign merchandise for a profit to be up-standing pillars of the community, but neither should have Johnny. Bottom line is, rules are rules (no matter how ridiculous), and if you decide to break one as big as this, you ARE just plain dumb and deserve whatever comes your way.
My biggest question about this whole doing is: Why does it matter?!?! Why do these rules exist? I know other people have tooted this horn but now I am going to blow on it myself. To quote Ty Webb from Caddyshack: "This isn't Russia. Is this Russia? This isn't Russia." This is good ole 100% Capitalistic for better or worse USA. Except if you are playing for the NCAA. Since President Obama likes to talk college ball so much and be involved, why doesn't he figure out how in the land of the free, we have a communistic society as big as the NCAA existing in our borders. I'm ready to bring out the brooms and declare shenanigans!
Come on people. Being paid for merchandise is not being paid to play, so they are still amateurs, (why that matters I do not have a clue), nor do I believe college players should get paid to play; it's called a scholarship. But so what if they are popular enough now that people want their autograph? No one is going to want it after they blow out a knee and don't get drafted. It's their personal life. The market determines the value. If you want to sell your championship ring, do it, you earned it, you can do what you want with it, the NCAA doesn't own the ring or you. (Although if you play for them they apparently do.) If someone wants to pay you for an autograph, so be it. Why does the NCAA care? And for that matter, why do we care. It's a free market, we want it, Americans get what they want, let these kids enjoy their celebrity because as the philosopher once said, "All glory is fleeting."
Then to put the rotten cherry on top of this moldy cake we get this bit of gold from the NCAA: they are no longer going to sell individual jerseys and other team-related merchandise on its website. You mean to tell me the NCAA was selling individualized jerseys?!?!? Three cheers for Jay Bilas of ESPN for exposing this. The president of the NCAA was then afraid that this looked hypocritical. REALLY?!?! Wow, he is president for a damn reason I'm telling you, nothing gets past this guy, except that the NCAA was selling personalized jerseys of the most popular players. But the NCAA received no money off of those sales, so they say....someone did though, and it wasn't the players, that much I know for sure. Absolute bull. The NCAA also said that they will no longer sell college and university merchandise...what the hell are they going to sell?? Am I missing something here? Let me know. I didn't shop the website before it was shut-down, but why would I shop it now after it comes back? The statement said that the website will be selling NCAA Championship Merchandise...what does that mean??!?! ...If only the Ohio State players had waited a few years they could have sold their crap online through the NCAA....
As always, any and all comments are welcome on the blog site and to my email: collegefootballfanweekly@gmail.com
Sunday, August 11, 2013
Ranking the "Power" Conferences II
And now here we have the gripping conclusion! Buckle up!
3. Big 12 - Usually recognized as one of the premier football conferences, the B12 has some of the most recognized and decorated teams in the country. However, they are only good enough for 3rd on my list, although it was a tough choice between them and my #2 conference.
4 year bowl record: 16-16 50%
vrs B10 6-3
vrs Pac12 8-2
vrs ACC 1-0
vrs Big East 1-3
vrs SEC 0-6
The B12 absolutely dominates the 4-6 conferences, but look at those records against the 2 that remain, the Big East and the SEC. The SEC can be summed up in two words COTTON BOWL. The SEC has won the last 4 and those games are consistently 2 of the best teams from both conferences. Throw in UT losing to Bama in a national championship and Texas A&M losing to Georgia in the Independence and you have the goose egg. What is hilarious to me is Texas A&M was 0-2 against the SEC in '09 and '10 and then promptly stomped Oklahoma in '12 after switching conferences. While this isn't completely shocking, the 1-3 against the Big East may surprise a lot of people. Here's the break-down.
2012
First time B12 contender West Virginia (7-5) loses to Syracuse (7-5). This is the same Syracuse that almost beat USC the same year. And we all know that the West Virginia the second half of the year was not the same the first half. All in all, shouldn't a 7-5 out of the prestigious B12 mean more than a 7-5 out of the Big East?
2011
Iowa State (6-6) loses to Rutgers (8-4). Lets be honest, this looks like a mis-match and Iowa St was a fluke to be here. They were 5-7 the year before and was 6-6 again with no bowl the year after. Rutgers meanwhile went 9-4 the year after the bowl.
2010
Kansas State (7-5) loses to Syracuse (7-5). Evenly matched bowl game by an up and coming K-State team and an up and down Syracuse who went 5-7 the year after and then 8-5 2 years after.
It should be noted that these 3 bowls were the Pinstripe Bowl; virtually an away game for the B12 and a home game for the Big East.
Oklahoma (11-2) beat Connecticut (8-4). The only win for the B12 took a dominating Oklahoma team to beat up on an over-matched UConn who was only there because of the BCS rules.
As anyone can see, the bowl games between these two conferences have not always been completely balanced, but if you take out what I believe to be the worst match ups (Oklahoma/UConn and Iowa State/Rutgers) the Big East is still 2-0 against the B12.
Conclusion: The Big 12 has definitly got some game, a 50% win percentage in 32 chances is the best we have seen so far. If they didn't have to play the SEC every year they would have a winning record. But like the SEC the B12 gets a lot of credit for being one of the toughest conferences in the country, so shouldn't their mid-cards who have been tested week after week have a better showing against a conference like the Big East? The answer to this lies in the discussion about the next conference on the list....
2. Big East - Maybe it's because it's where I live but I never hear about Big East football. I forget they are a football conference most of the season. Not anymore.
4 year bowl break down: 14-8 64%
vrs ACC 4-4
vrs B12 3-1
vrs SEC 5-3
A 64% win percentage in only 22 chances!!! By far the best bowl record we have seen. Look at the numbers against the two "toughest" conferences the SEC and B12: 8-4. They are the only conference in the last 4 years to post winning records in their bowl games. So the biggest question is: is this record legit? Has the Big East feasted on the bottom-feeders from these conferences? As we saw with the B12 break-down, there might be a case for one such occasion. What about the ACC and SEC? Lets take a look, ACC first.
2012
Cincinnati (9-3) beat Duke (6-6) MIS-MATCH
Rutgers (8-4) loses to Virginia Tech (6-6) I would say Big East was upset here
2011
Louisville (7-5) loses to NC State (7-5) Could have went either way, but Louisville was on to bigger and better the next year
West Virginia (9-3) beats Clemson (10-3) The B12 wanted West Virginia for a reason, right?
2010
West Virginia (9-3) loses to NC State (8-4) Could have went either way and you never can tell with NC State
South Florida (7-5) beats Clemson (6-6) Could have been seen as a mis-match. These two teams have went in completely different directions since.
2009
Pittsburgh (9-3) beats North Carolina (8-4) Close
West Virginia (9-3) loses to Florida State (6-6) should have been a WV win, another good win for the ACC
This is what you would expect from a 4-4 record, won some, lost some, mid-cards battling mid-cards, you can't ever really tell.
Here's the SEC break-down
2012
Louisville (10-2) beats Florida (11-1) Not as big of an upset in retrospect.
Ole Miss (6-6) beats Pittsburgh (6-6) SEC mid-card better than a Big East mid.
2011
Cincinnati (9-3) beats Vanderbilt (6-6) An obvious mis-match.
2010
Kentucky (6-6) loses to Pittsburgh (7-5) Could also be seen as a mis-match. Kentucky was lucky to be there.
2009
Florida (12-1) beats Cincinnati (12-0) in the Sugar. Two 12 win teams, went the way you would expect a 12 win Florida team to make it go.
UConn (7-5) beats South Carolina (7-5) Nicely balanced, best team wins.
So if we attempt to throw out the overly mis-matched games (Cincy/Vandy and UK/Pitt) the Big East has still battled the SEC to a 2-2 record. No other conference besides the ACC can claim a better showing. But is this conference still better than the B12 or are they lucky? The B12 dominates the Top 25 and the Big East is never there. Surely the Big East keeps getting lucky...Take a look at this breakdown of the Coaches Top 25 polls from the past 4 years:
From 2009-2012 the B12 has had 18 teams on the PRE-SEASON Top 25, in that same time span, when the Top 25 was released at THE END of the year the B12 only had 14 teams. That's a drop-off of 4 teams. The worst being in 2012 when they went from 6 to 3. Only in 2010 did they actually GAIN teams from beginning to end. Tough conference or overblown?
From 2009-2012 the Big East has had 3 teams on the PRE-SEASON Top 25 but ended up with 5 teams at the END of the season. The past 2 years they have had ZERO teams ranked in the pre-season but ended up withe 3 at the end. Weak conference or over-looked?
Conclusion: The Big East plays ball and the country needs to stop sleeping on them. The records against the SEC and B12 do not lie. And the polls at the end of the year show the Coaches "fixing it" at the end. They consistently over estimate the B12 and leave deserving teams out. It's not that the B12 beats up on each other because they are a "tough" conference (although at the top of the conference that can be the case) it's just they were over-ranked to begin with. I do think the Big East with its smaller conference DOES in fact beat each other up to the point that these teams don't get respect. But as the records show, the Big East can play with anybody and has proven they have the talent to beat those same anybodies. Not that this matters anymore since Syracuse, Pittsburgh, and Louisville are leaving for the ACC, Rutgers is leaving for the B10, and this conference is going to look COMPLETELY different with a different name.
1. SEC - Is anyone surprised? If you are PLEASE leave a comment because I would love to hear it. Before I get into the reasons I put the SEC on top I am going to address the bowl record against the ACC. Yes, they are 3-5 in the past 4 years, but in that same time frame, the SEC is 18-7 (72%) against the ACC in the regular season. Now part of this number is muddled by the fact that Georgia has to play Georgia State EVERY YEAR, not that Georgia State is a slouch, but Georgia is 4-0 against them. Florida and Florida State are split 2-2 the past 4 years and South Carolina is 4-0 against Clemson. And once again if you take out the mis-matches in the bowls (UT/VaTech, UK/Clemson, UT/UNC) the 3-5 shits to a 3-2 in favor of the SEC. And just for fun, lets be honest, the best teams from the ACC are from the South...
So here are my reasons for putting the SEC first:
1. 4 year bowl record 22-14 61% No other conference with that many chances can post that kind of win percentage, it's not even close. They are 21-13 against the B12, B10, Pac12, Big East, and ACC a 62% win percentage. They have had winning records in their bowls 3 of the last 4 years with only one year at .500.
2. This is a TOUGH conference week in and week out. In looking at the Coaches Top 25 over the past 4 years we find that while they have suffered the same fate as the B12 (25 teams ranked in preseason, with only 22 ranked at the end) they have ended the last 3 years with having the MOST Top 25 teams. The biggest year for losing teams was 2011 when the SEC dropped from 8 ranked teams to only 5 at season's end. Part of the reason for the drop-off I believe is the coaches were pissed that LSU and Alabama both made it to the National Championship that year. An 8-5 Auburn that beat VaTech in the Chic-fil-a bowl should have been ranked in 2011.
3. They play in the big bowls and take everyone's best shot. Everyone wants to hang an "I Beat an SEC team in a Bowl Game" trophy to their resume. So if you look at the last 4 years of the Sugar/Chick/Outback/Cap1/Gator/Cotton/National Championship bowls you will find the SEC with an
15-9 record and a 62% win percentage (and that includes the Bama/LSU Nat'l Champ Game which brings the percentage down because it counts as a win and a loss).
4. The top of the conference is deeper and better than any other conference. The Pac12 boasts Oregon and Stanford, the B12 has Oklahoma, OK State, Texas (coming back), K-State (going down), and TCU, the B10 has Ohio St, Nebraska, Wisconsin, Michigan and Michigan State, the ACC has Florida State and Clemson, and the Big East has Louisville, Rutgers, and Cincinnati. The SEC has Alabama, LSU, Texas A&M, Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina. These 6 teams have beaten almost all of the top teams from the other conferences (sometimes multiple times) over the past 4 years. These 6 teams are 14-7 the past 4 years in bowls for a 67% win percentage, with the LSU loss to Alabama. By comparison the B12 is 8-7, Pac12 is 4-4, the ACC is at 6-2 with bragging rights, the B10 is 8-10, and the Big East is 6-3.
5. Then you add in the mid-cards of Arkansas and Auburn (both coming off bad years), Mississippi State and an up and coming Vanderbilt and this conference is loaded.
I hope you have enjoyed this rundown of the top conferences in the country. As always please leave any comments on the blog or send them to collegefootballfanweekly@gmail.com. If you are enjoying this blog please be sure to follow and recommend to others can enjoy it to!!
Next up: Johnny Football and the NCAA not selling their own merchandise
3. Big 12 - Usually recognized as one of the premier football conferences, the B12 has some of the most recognized and decorated teams in the country. However, they are only good enough for 3rd on my list, although it was a tough choice between them and my #2 conference.
4 year bowl record: 16-16 50%
vrs B10 6-3
vrs Pac12 8-2
vrs ACC 1-0
vrs Big East 1-3
vrs SEC 0-6
The B12 absolutely dominates the 4-6 conferences, but look at those records against the 2 that remain, the Big East and the SEC. The SEC can be summed up in two words COTTON BOWL. The SEC has won the last 4 and those games are consistently 2 of the best teams from both conferences. Throw in UT losing to Bama in a national championship and Texas A&M losing to Georgia in the Independence and you have the goose egg. What is hilarious to me is Texas A&M was 0-2 against the SEC in '09 and '10 and then promptly stomped Oklahoma in '12 after switching conferences. While this isn't completely shocking, the 1-3 against the Big East may surprise a lot of people. Here's the break-down.
2012
First time B12 contender West Virginia (7-5) loses to Syracuse (7-5). This is the same Syracuse that almost beat USC the same year. And we all know that the West Virginia the second half of the year was not the same the first half. All in all, shouldn't a 7-5 out of the prestigious B12 mean more than a 7-5 out of the Big East?
2011
Iowa State (6-6) loses to Rutgers (8-4). Lets be honest, this looks like a mis-match and Iowa St was a fluke to be here. They were 5-7 the year before and was 6-6 again with no bowl the year after. Rutgers meanwhile went 9-4 the year after the bowl.
2010
Kansas State (7-5) loses to Syracuse (7-5). Evenly matched bowl game by an up and coming K-State team and an up and down Syracuse who went 5-7 the year after and then 8-5 2 years after.
It should be noted that these 3 bowls were the Pinstripe Bowl; virtually an away game for the B12 and a home game for the Big East.
Oklahoma (11-2) beat Connecticut (8-4). The only win for the B12 took a dominating Oklahoma team to beat up on an over-matched UConn who was only there because of the BCS rules.
As anyone can see, the bowl games between these two conferences have not always been completely balanced, but if you take out what I believe to be the worst match ups (Oklahoma/UConn and Iowa State/Rutgers) the Big East is still 2-0 against the B12.
Conclusion: The Big 12 has definitly got some game, a 50% win percentage in 32 chances is the best we have seen so far. If they didn't have to play the SEC every year they would have a winning record. But like the SEC the B12 gets a lot of credit for being one of the toughest conferences in the country, so shouldn't their mid-cards who have been tested week after week have a better showing against a conference like the Big East? The answer to this lies in the discussion about the next conference on the list....
2. Big East - Maybe it's because it's where I live but I never hear about Big East football. I forget they are a football conference most of the season. Not anymore.
4 year bowl break down: 14-8 64%
vrs ACC 4-4
vrs B12 3-1
vrs SEC 5-3
A 64% win percentage in only 22 chances!!! By far the best bowl record we have seen. Look at the numbers against the two "toughest" conferences the SEC and B12: 8-4. They are the only conference in the last 4 years to post winning records in their bowl games. So the biggest question is: is this record legit? Has the Big East feasted on the bottom-feeders from these conferences? As we saw with the B12 break-down, there might be a case for one such occasion. What about the ACC and SEC? Lets take a look, ACC first.
2012
Cincinnati (9-3) beat Duke (6-6) MIS-MATCH
Rutgers (8-4) loses to Virginia Tech (6-6) I would say Big East was upset here
2011
Louisville (7-5) loses to NC State (7-5) Could have went either way, but Louisville was on to bigger and better the next year
West Virginia (9-3) beats Clemson (10-3) The B12 wanted West Virginia for a reason, right?
2010
West Virginia (9-3) loses to NC State (8-4) Could have went either way and you never can tell with NC State
South Florida (7-5) beats Clemson (6-6) Could have been seen as a mis-match. These two teams have went in completely different directions since.
2009
Pittsburgh (9-3) beats North Carolina (8-4) Close
West Virginia (9-3) loses to Florida State (6-6) should have been a WV win, another good win for the ACC
This is what you would expect from a 4-4 record, won some, lost some, mid-cards battling mid-cards, you can't ever really tell.
Here's the SEC break-down
2012
Louisville (10-2) beats Florida (11-1) Not as big of an upset in retrospect.
Ole Miss (6-6) beats Pittsburgh (6-6) SEC mid-card better than a Big East mid.
2011
Cincinnati (9-3) beats Vanderbilt (6-6) An obvious mis-match.
2010
Kentucky (6-6) loses to Pittsburgh (7-5) Could also be seen as a mis-match. Kentucky was lucky to be there.
2009
Florida (12-1) beats Cincinnati (12-0) in the Sugar. Two 12 win teams, went the way you would expect a 12 win Florida team to make it go.
UConn (7-5) beats South Carolina (7-5) Nicely balanced, best team wins.
So if we attempt to throw out the overly mis-matched games (Cincy/Vandy and UK/Pitt) the Big East has still battled the SEC to a 2-2 record. No other conference besides the ACC can claim a better showing. But is this conference still better than the B12 or are they lucky? The B12 dominates the Top 25 and the Big East is never there. Surely the Big East keeps getting lucky...Take a look at this breakdown of the Coaches Top 25 polls from the past 4 years:
From 2009-2012 the B12 has had 18 teams on the PRE-SEASON Top 25, in that same time span, when the Top 25 was released at THE END of the year the B12 only had 14 teams. That's a drop-off of 4 teams. The worst being in 2012 when they went from 6 to 3. Only in 2010 did they actually GAIN teams from beginning to end. Tough conference or overblown?
From 2009-2012 the Big East has had 3 teams on the PRE-SEASON Top 25 but ended up with 5 teams at the END of the season. The past 2 years they have had ZERO teams ranked in the pre-season but ended up withe 3 at the end. Weak conference or over-looked?
Conclusion: The Big East plays ball and the country needs to stop sleeping on them. The records against the SEC and B12 do not lie. And the polls at the end of the year show the Coaches "fixing it" at the end. They consistently over estimate the B12 and leave deserving teams out. It's not that the B12 beats up on each other because they are a "tough" conference (although at the top of the conference that can be the case) it's just they were over-ranked to begin with. I do think the Big East with its smaller conference DOES in fact beat each other up to the point that these teams don't get respect. But as the records show, the Big East can play with anybody and has proven they have the talent to beat those same anybodies. Not that this matters anymore since Syracuse, Pittsburgh, and Louisville are leaving for the ACC, Rutgers is leaving for the B10, and this conference is going to look COMPLETELY different with a different name.
1. SEC - Is anyone surprised? If you are PLEASE leave a comment because I would love to hear it. Before I get into the reasons I put the SEC on top I am going to address the bowl record against the ACC. Yes, they are 3-5 in the past 4 years, but in that same time frame, the SEC is 18-7 (72%) against the ACC in the regular season. Now part of this number is muddled by the fact that Georgia has to play Georgia State EVERY YEAR, not that Georgia State is a slouch, but Georgia is 4-0 against them. Florida and Florida State are split 2-2 the past 4 years and South Carolina is 4-0 against Clemson. And once again if you take out the mis-matches in the bowls (UT/VaTech, UK/Clemson, UT/UNC) the 3-5 shits to a 3-2 in favor of the SEC. And just for fun, lets be honest, the best teams from the ACC are from the South...
So here are my reasons for putting the SEC first:
1. 4 year bowl record 22-14 61% No other conference with that many chances can post that kind of win percentage, it's not even close. They are 21-13 against the B12, B10, Pac12, Big East, and ACC a 62% win percentage. They have had winning records in their bowls 3 of the last 4 years with only one year at .500.
2. This is a TOUGH conference week in and week out. In looking at the Coaches Top 25 over the past 4 years we find that while they have suffered the same fate as the B12 (25 teams ranked in preseason, with only 22 ranked at the end) they have ended the last 3 years with having the MOST Top 25 teams. The biggest year for losing teams was 2011 when the SEC dropped from 8 ranked teams to only 5 at season's end. Part of the reason for the drop-off I believe is the coaches were pissed that LSU and Alabama both made it to the National Championship that year. An 8-5 Auburn that beat VaTech in the Chic-fil-a bowl should have been ranked in 2011.
3. They play in the big bowls and take everyone's best shot. Everyone wants to hang an "I Beat an SEC team in a Bowl Game" trophy to their resume. So if you look at the last 4 years of the Sugar/Chick/Outback/Cap1/Gator/Cotton/National Championship bowls you will find the SEC with an
15-9 record and a 62% win percentage (and that includes the Bama/LSU Nat'l Champ Game which brings the percentage down because it counts as a win and a loss).
4. The top of the conference is deeper and better than any other conference. The Pac12 boasts Oregon and Stanford, the B12 has Oklahoma, OK State, Texas (coming back), K-State (going down), and TCU, the B10 has Ohio St, Nebraska, Wisconsin, Michigan and Michigan State, the ACC has Florida State and Clemson, and the Big East has Louisville, Rutgers, and Cincinnati. The SEC has Alabama, LSU, Texas A&M, Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina. These 6 teams have beaten almost all of the top teams from the other conferences (sometimes multiple times) over the past 4 years. These 6 teams are 14-7 the past 4 years in bowls for a 67% win percentage, with the LSU loss to Alabama. By comparison the B12 is 8-7, Pac12 is 4-4, the ACC is at 6-2 with bragging rights, the B10 is 8-10, and the Big East is 6-3.
5. Then you add in the mid-cards of Arkansas and Auburn (both coming off bad years), Mississippi State and an up and coming Vanderbilt and this conference is loaded.
I hope you have enjoyed this rundown of the top conferences in the country. As always please leave any comments on the blog or send them to collegefootballfanweekly@gmail.com. If you are enjoying this blog please be sure to follow and recommend to others can enjoy it to!!
Next up: Johnny Football and the NCAA not selling their own merchandise
Saturday, August 10, 2013
Ranking the "Power" Conferences
So here we are again. In a post that should spark some debate I will attempt to rank the power conferences in the NCAA. Here are the conferences I will be looking at: Big East, Big 10, Big 12, Pac 12, SEC, ACC, and just for fun, the Mountain West. When I started this endeavor I had a general idea of how it was going to go, SEC on top, Pac12 and Big 12 towards the top, etc..etc...However, I found some surprises when I really started to break these conferences down. Frankly it ended up being more than I bargained for. What started as a quick, fun idea to talk about the conferences has turned into a 2-part power blog.
Before we get into the conferences I want to give a quick overview of the stats I used for the rankings. First I looked at each conference's last 4 years of bowl games. After getting the 4 year records I broke it down how each conference faired against all the other conferences in the past 4 years. This is where it got interesting and where the real research began. From this point I would look at the individual bowl games of conferences and the records of the teams playing in them to help paint what I felt was a full picture of what is happening within these conferences. I used the records of the teams GOING into the bowl, not the record of the teams AFTER the bowl. There is definitely room for debate and my findings are only my opinion and not written in stone, any comments are welcome.
For sanity's sake I only broke down what I felt to be the most interesting scenarios, and oddly enough most of that involved the ACC. I want to say there is no ACC bias, but I found them to be the most intriguing conference and probably the hardest to get a reading on. This in turn helped me rank them, but more on that when we get to the ACC. Now without further delay let's get into the rankings.
7. Mountain West - I was not even going to include the Mountain West in my research until I noticed something while I was researching the Pac 12. The Mountain West is 13-9 for a win percentage of 59% over the last 4 years. Out of that, the MW is 6-1 against the Pac 12....What?!? The MW is dominating a "power" conference! What is going on out there? Not only that, but they are 2-0 against the ACC and B10 combined. That's 8-1 against the "power" conferences. So why is the MW dead last on the list? Simple, beating up on the up-coming #6 conference does not get any points with me and the ACC and B10 wins came in 2010. The MW had a better bowl record (8-2) in 2009 and 2010 with Utah and without Boise State than after Utah left and Boise joined (5-8 in bowls for 2011 and 2012, with most of those losses coming against non-power conference teams). Not good enough, to use a phrase, they were who we (at least I) thought they were.
6. Pac 12 - I really expected more from this conference. Here is the break-down:
4 year bowl record: 10-16, 38%
vrs ACC 4-1
vrs B10 2-2
vrs B12 2-8
vrs SEC 0-1
vrs MW 1-4
For a deeper break down I looked at their games against the ACC and B10. I chose not to do the B12 because with 2 wins in 10 chances, there isn't much to research. The SEC was easy because that was when Oregon was beaten by Auburn in the National Championship Game.
B10 breakdown:
These were probably some of the most balanced and even bowl games of the past 4 years. Of course we had the over matched Wisconsin Badgers getting beat by Stanford last year in the Rose and those same poor Badgers getting out ran by a 12-2 Oregon team in 2011. Wisconsin was 11-3 in 2011 with some pride, but Oregon was making up for not playing for a national championship. In one of the Pac 12 losses, Illinois who was 6-6 at the time of the bowl was playing a 6-7 UCLA team....I hate the fact that teams with losing records make it to bowl games. The other loss came in 2009 when an 10-2 Ohio State team beat a 10-2 Oregon team. THAT game was a prime example of one team going out the door and another stepping through, complete changing of the guard.
ACC breakdown
These games featured some great mid-card type games and an Orange bowl. In 2012 a 7-5 USC team with no momentum got beat by a 6-7 Georgia Tech team. In 2011 an 7-5 Utah beat an 8-4 Georgia Tech. In 2010 an 11-1 Stanford beat an 11-2 Virginia Tech, and in 2009 an 8-4 USC beat an 8-4 Boston College team which quickly faded from the lime-light just a year later. The bottom-line against the ACC appears to be evenly matched record teams going at it with the best team winning, ie: there was a reason the Pac 12 wanted Utah.
Conclusion: The top of the Pac 12 is loaded with Stanford and Oregon. After that, who knows? Oregon and Stanford can't play in every bowl and a 38% win percentage in 36 chances is abysmal.
5. Big Ten - Kudos to these guys, I thought they would be dead last on the list, because all we hear about is how they are dominated by the SEC. Don't get me wrong, there is some domination from the SEC going on, but if we measured every conference simply by their record against the SEC this would be a short blog.
4 year bowl record: 13-19, 41%
vrs ACC 3-0
vrs Pac 12 2-2
vrs B12 3-6
vrs SEC 4-9
For a deeper look, we already looked at the Pac 12, and then I chose the 3-0 record against the ACC. With a 7-15 record against the B12 and SEC, once again I don't see what more research could turn up here, but with a 7-15 record against those 2, how does that same conference post a 3-0 against the ACC?
In 2011 a 10-2 Michigan team beat an 11-2 Virginia Tech team in the Sugar Bowl. Huge game of two highly touted teams, with Michigan coming from a little out of no-where that year to give Va Tech their send off before a 7-6 mark in 2012.
In 2009 Iowa at 10-2 beat a 11-2 Georgia Tech team and a 9-3 Wisconsin beat a 9-3 Miami.
Iowa has gotten worse every season since then, Wisconsin has stayed consistent and this was Miami being led out the door.
Conclusion: The B10 has sent their best, their not so best, and everything else against the B12 and SEC, with the biggest win probably being Ohio State over Arkansas in the Sugar Bowl, and Arkansas gave that game away at the end. The Michigan State bowl win over Georgia was a classic and could have went either way. Against the ACC you can almost track the B10 demise. They were a different conference in 2009 and 2010, with 2010 being when the tide really began to turn in my opinion. The B10 went from being 1-1 against the SEC in 2009 to being 1-3 in 2010, with more of the same coming against the B12. So for them to beat the ACC twice in 2009 is no shock, and the Michigan team that beat the Hokies turned around and got beat by South Carolina the next year. This conference has no doubt gone in the wrong direction, with only 7 bowl teams in 2012 (compared to 10 in 2011), but with only 2 wins as opposed to 2009 when they sent 7 and 4 came back victorious. A 41% win percentage in 32 chances puts them in the lower third.
4. ACC - This is the perennial middle of the road conference. Full of contradictions and intrigue, who will show up? How strong is this conference? Are they better than we think? Or do they under-achieve?
4 year bowl record: 13-17, 43%
vrs B12 0-1
vrs B10 0-3
vrs Pac 12 1-3
vrs Big East 4-4
vrs SEC 5-3
YOU READ THAT RIGHT!!!! A conference with a 1-7 record against the B12, B10, and Pac 12 is 5-3 against the SEC!!! That's FIVE WINS in 8 chances against the supposed power house of the country. THAT is why the ACC became the most intriguing conference to me. I thought the SEC was un-defeated in bowl games since Jesus beat the Devil in the Dust Bowl in 29 BC....(not really, but you get the point.) For the breakdowns I looked closer at the Big East and of course the SEC. For the sake of the length of this blog I will only look at the SEC now and will show the Big East break-down when we look at that conference in Part 2.
We will go in reverse order than the previous conferences:
2009
Clemson (8-5) beats Kentucky (7-5) - a SEC powerhouse Kentucky is not and this was just the start of the Clemson uprising
Virginia Tech (9-3) beats Tennessee (7-5) - another upper tier ACC team matched up against a mid level (at the time) SEC team
2010
North Carolina (7-5) beats Tennessee (6-6) in a classic. Not a big difference in records but Tennessee was probably only in this bowl because they were in the SEC and they have not been back since with two consecutive 5-7 seasons.
Florida State (9-4) beats South Carolina (9-4). Could have went either way, at this point and time this was not the South Carolina team we have today. They were coming from 7-6 the year before but have went 22-4 the 2 years since the Florida State loss and beat the Noles last year in the regular season. But this was a legit win for the ACC.
2011
Wake Forest (6-6) loses to Mississippi State (6-6). Mississippi State was starting to put it together in a tough SEC and this was really a fluke season for Wake Forest to even make it to a bowl. They went 5-7 the next year and were 8-16 the 2 years previous to the bowl game.
Virginia (8-4) loses to Auburn (7-5). Auburn was coming off a tough luck season without Cam Newton but was still talented and had lost to the better teams and beat everyone else on their schedule. No fluke win, a battle tested Auburn proving what the hype says about the SEC.
2012
North Carolina State (7-5) loses to Vanderbilt (8-4). An up and coming mid-level SEC team against a mid-level ACC team that had barely pulled off the huge Florida State upset. Not really a surprise how this one came out.
Clemson (10-2) beats LSU (10-2). A really heavy weight battle between 2 top teams that went back and forth and was only won by Clemson because of the less than stellar play-calling of the LSU offense. No defense can be on the field as long as LSU's was in this game; Clemson basically made the game winning drive against the 2nd team defense for LSU, after injuries and fatigue took their toll. Still, a gutsy game by Clemson when they could have folded and let this one go. If anyone doubted Clemson before this game, this one should have erased all doubt. The better team won this one, hands down.
Conclusion: As we have seen and how we shall see tomorrow when I do the Big East/ACC break-down the ACC is nothing to laugh at when they send their big teams (ie: teams with 9 or 10 wins) to bowls but are really middle of the pack when sending their mid-level teams; the ACC sends a LOT of mid-level teams. Their mid-cards beat the teams they should and lose to the ones you would expect, which puts the conference right in the middle with a 43% win percentage in 30 bowl chances.
That does it for Part 1 of the Conference Rankings. Part 2 will come Sunday as we look at the B12, SEC, and Big East (yes, the Big East made the top 3....)
As always do not hesitate to send comments to the blog or to collegefootballfanweekly@gmail.com. See you tomorrow!!!
Before we get into the conferences I want to give a quick overview of the stats I used for the rankings. First I looked at each conference's last 4 years of bowl games. After getting the 4 year records I broke it down how each conference faired against all the other conferences in the past 4 years. This is where it got interesting and where the real research began. From this point I would look at the individual bowl games of conferences and the records of the teams playing in them to help paint what I felt was a full picture of what is happening within these conferences. I used the records of the teams GOING into the bowl, not the record of the teams AFTER the bowl. There is definitely room for debate and my findings are only my opinion and not written in stone, any comments are welcome.
For sanity's sake I only broke down what I felt to be the most interesting scenarios, and oddly enough most of that involved the ACC. I want to say there is no ACC bias, but I found them to be the most intriguing conference and probably the hardest to get a reading on. This in turn helped me rank them, but more on that when we get to the ACC. Now without further delay let's get into the rankings.
7. Mountain West - I was not even going to include the Mountain West in my research until I noticed something while I was researching the Pac 12. The Mountain West is 13-9 for a win percentage of 59% over the last 4 years. Out of that, the MW is 6-1 against the Pac 12....What?!? The MW is dominating a "power" conference! What is going on out there? Not only that, but they are 2-0 against the ACC and B10 combined. That's 8-1 against the "power" conferences. So why is the MW dead last on the list? Simple, beating up on the up-coming #6 conference does not get any points with me and the ACC and B10 wins came in 2010. The MW had a better bowl record (8-2) in 2009 and 2010 with Utah and without Boise State than after Utah left and Boise joined (5-8 in bowls for 2011 and 2012, with most of those losses coming against non-power conference teams). Not good enough, to use a phrase, they were who we (at least I) thought they were.
6. Pac 12 - I really expected more from this conference. Here is the break-down:
4 year bowl record: 10-16, 38%
vrs ACC 4-1
vrs B10 2-2
vrs B12 2-8
vrs SEC 0-1
vrs MW 1-4
For a deeper break down I looked at their games against the ACC and B10. I chose not to do the B12 because with 2 wins in 10 chances, there isn't much to research. The SEC was easy because that was when Oregon was beaten by Auburn in the National Championship Game.
B10 breakdown:
These were probably some of the most balanced and even bowl games of the past 4 years. Of course we had the over matched Wisconsin Badgers getting beat by Stanford last year in the Rose and those same poor Badgers getting out ran by a 12-2 Oregon team in 2011. Wisconsin was 11-3 in 2011 with some pride, but Oregon was making up for not playing for a national championship. In one of the Pac 12 losses, Illinois who was 6-6 at the time of the bowl was playing a 6-7 UCLA team....I hate the fact that teams with losing records make it to bowl games. The other loss came in 2009 when an 10-2 Ohio State team beat a 10-2 Oregon team. THAT game was a prime example of one team going out the door and another stepping through, complete changing of the guard.
ACC breakdown
These games featured some great mid-card type games and an Orange bowl. In 2012 a 7-5 USC team with no momentum got beat by a 6-7 Georgia Tech team. In 2011 an 7-5 Utah beat an 8-4 Georgia Tech. In 2010 an 11-1 Stanford beat an 11-2 Virginia Tech, and in 2009 an 8-4 USC beat an 8-4 Boston College team which quickly faded from the lime-light just a year later. The bottom-line against the ACC appears to be evenly matched record teams going at it with the best team winning, ie: there was a reason the Pac 12 wanted Utah.
Conclusion: The top of the Pac 12 is loaded with Stanford and Oregon. After that, who knows? Oregon and Stanford can't play in every bowl and a 38% win percentage in 36 chances is abysmal.
5. Big Ten - Kudos to these guys, I thought they would be dead last on the list, because all we hear about is how they are dominated by the SEC. Don't get me wrong, there is some domination from the SEC going on, but if we measured every conference simply by their record against the SEC this would be a short blog.
4 year bowl record: 13-19, 41%
vrs ACC 3-0
vrs Pac 12 2-2
vrs B12 3-6
vrs SEC 4-9
For a deeper look, we already looked at the Pac 12, and then I chose the 3-0 record against the ACC. With a 7-15 record against the B12 and SEC, once again I don't see what more research could turn up here, but with a 7-15 record against those 2, how does that same conference post a 3-0 against the ACC?
In 2011 a 10-2 Michigan team beat an 11-2 Virginia Tech team in the Sugar Bowl. Huge game of two highly touted teams, with Michigan coming from a little out of no-where that year to give Va Tech their send off before a 7-6 mark in 2012.
In 2009 Iowa at 10-2 beat a 11-2 Georgia Tech team and a 9-3 Wisconsin beat a 9-3 Miami.
Iowa has gotten worse every season since then, Wisconsin has stayed consistent and this was Miami being led out the door.
Conclusion: The B10 has sent their best, their not so best, and everything else against the B12 and SEC, with the biggest win probably being Ohio State over Arkansas in the Sugar Bowl, and Arkansas gave that game away at the end. The Michigan State bowl win over Georgia was a classic and could have went either way. Against the ACC you can almost track the B10 demise. They were a different conference in 2009 and 2010, with 2010 being when the tide really began to turn in my opinion. The B10 went from being 1-1 against the SEC in 2009 to being 1-3 in 2010, with more of the same coming against the B12. So for them to beat the ACC twice in 2009 is no shock, and the Michigan team that beat the Hokies turned around and got beat by South Carolina the next year. This conference has no doubt gone in the wrong direction, with only 7 bowl teams in 2012 (compared to 10 in 2011), but with only 2 wins as opposed to 2009 when they sent 7 and 4 came back victorious. A 41% win percentage in 32 chances puts them in the lower third.
4. ACC - This is the perennial middle of the road conference. Full of contradictions and intrigue, who will show up? How strong is this conference? Are they better than we think? Or do they under-achieve?
4 year bowl record: 13-17, 43%
vrs B12 0-1
vrs B10 0-3
vrs Pac 12 1-3
vrs Big East 4-4
vrs SEC 5-3
YOU READ THAT RIGHT!!!! A conference with a 1-7 record against the B12, B10, and Pac 12 is 5-3 against the SEC!!! That's FIVE WINS in 8 chances against the supposed power house of the country. THAT is why the ACC became the most intriguing conference to me. I thought the SEC was un-defeated in bowl games since Jesus beat the Devil in the Dust Bowl in 29 BC....(not really, but you get the point.) For the breakdowns I looked closer at the Big East and of course the SEC. For the sake of the length of this blog I will only look at the SEC now and will show the Big East break-down when we look at that conference in Part 2.
We will go in reverse order than the previous conferences:
2009
Clemson (8-5) beats Kentucky (7-5) - a SEC powerhouse Kentucky is not and this was just the start of the Clemson uprising
Virginia Tech (9-3) beats Tennessee (7-5) - another upper tier ACC team matched up against a mid level (at the time) SEC team
2010
North Carolina (7-5) beats Tennessee (6-6) in a classic. Not a big difference in records but Tennessee was probably only in this bowl because they were in the SEC and they have not been back since with two consecutive 5-7 seasons.
Florida State (9-4) beats South Carolina (9-4). Could have went either way, at this point and time this was not the South Carolina team we have today. They were coming from 7-6 the year before but have went 22-4 the 2 years since the Florida State loss and beat the Noles last year in the regular season. But this was a legit win for the ACC.
2011
Wake Forest (6-6) loses to Mississippi State (6-6). Mississippi State was starting to put it together in a tough SEC and this was really a fluke season for Wake Forest to even make it to a bowl. They went 5-7 the next year and were 8-16 the 2 years previous to the bowl game.
Virginia (8-4) loses to Auburn (7-5). Auburn was coming off a tough luck season without Cam Newton but was still talented and had lost to the better teams and beat everyone else on their schedule. No fluke win, a battle tested Auburn proving what the hype says about the SEC.
2012
North Carolina State (7-5) loses to Vanderbilt (8-4). An up and coming mid-level SEC team against a mid-level ACC team that had barely pulled off the huge Florida State upset. Not really a surprise how this one came out.
Clemson (10-2) beats LSU (10-2). A really heavy weight battle between 2 top teams that went back and forth and was only won by Clemson because of the less than stellar play-calling of the LSU offense. No defense can be on the field as long as LSU's was in this game; Clemson basically made the game winning drive against the 2nd team defense for LSU, after injuries and fatigue took their toll. Still, a gutsy game by Clemson when they could have folded and let this one go. If anyone doubted Clemson before this game, this one should have erased all doubt. The better team won this one, hands down.
Conclusion: As we have seen and how we shall see tomorrow when I do the Big East/ACC break-down the ACC is nothing to laugh at when they send their big teams (ie: teams with 9 or 10 wins) to bowls but are really middle of the pack when sending their mid-level teams; the ACC sends a LOT of mid-level teams. Their mid-cards beat the teams they should and lose to the ones you would expect, which puts the conference right in the middle with a 43% win percentage in 30 bowl chances.
That does it for Part 1 of the Conference Rankings. Part 2 will come Sunday as we look at the B12, SEC, and Big East (yes, the Big East made the top 3....)
As always do not hesitate to send comments to the blog or to collegefootballfanweekly@gmail.com. See you tomorrow!!!
Saturday, August 3, 2013
Season's First Top 25.....As the Tide Rolls in
The first Coaches Poll came out this past week and to NO-ONE's surprise, Alabama is number one. Anyone who watches college football called this after the Notre Dame "game." In conversation with a friend over the summer I actually predicted 8 of the 10 teams that made the top 10, but my numbers were way off. I am proud because the coaches' poll is the hardest poll to predict in my opinion, because also in my opinion it depends a lot on who the coach is, not how good the teams is....ie: how does Oklahoma end up so highly ranked time and time again and then piss it away in a bowl game? So without further delay, here is the top 25 and my impressions of all 25. For sanity's sake, when the season starts I will only focus on the Top 10, because if you are not in the Top 10 when the BCS hits, you really don't matter.
1. Alabama - I have nothing to add here. They are number one till someone proves otherwise.
2. Ohio State - AND LET THE LOVE AFFAIR WITH URBAN MEYER BEGIN!!! I knew this was going to happen. In my mock Top 10 I did not have them numbered. Yes they went un-defeated last year, yes Urban Meyer is an amazing coach, yes they have talent....BUT...they play in the Big Ten....not exactly a power-house, and they did not have anything to lose last year so they had no pressure. This year is all different, except that the Big 10 still sucks. Now they have everything to lose particularly with a #2 ranking. But with Meyer's coaching and the talent on this team I would not be surprised to see them go un-defeated again, but does that mean they are the second best team in the country? Not by a long shot. It is funny to me that Urban Meyer trounced an over-ranked Ohio State team for a national championship, and now he is the reason for an over-ranked Ohio State team.
3. Oregon - The biggest question is: Will there be a drop off from Chip Kelly? The pre-season issues do not bother me and I think are over-blown, but without Kelly's fire and his football mind I do not think the Ducks are good enough for 3.
4. Stanford - This is a team I continually wrote off the past 2 years and all they did was win games. They are an SEC team in the PAC-12. I would love to see them make the championship game. Great coaching, hard, tough team. I like them higher than #4.
5. Georgia - The most over-rated SEC team year in and year out. I know they almost beat Alabama in the SEC championship, but they didn't. This is the same team that got steam-rolled by South Carolina last year and looks weak against cupcakes from time to time. If Georgia can put it all together for an entire season, they could be the team to take Alabama down.
6. Texas A&M - This is the #2 team in the country if Johnny Manziel can remember he lives in College Station and NOT Hollywood.
7. USC - The one down south. Last year the California USC was the talk of the early season; little did we know that when we said USC we actually meant University of South Carolina. This team only got better, they showed up in big games, except against LSU (but who wins that game except Alabama?), and they are primed to get it done this year.
8. Clemson - Last year Florida State was the talk of the ACC, but Florida State didn't beat LSU in a bowl game. With their returning quarterback, an offense that shows no signs of being stopped, and a huge desire, this team could make some noise this year as well.
9. Louisville - No problems with them being ranked this high. Playing in the Big East will hurt their chances to make it to the elite level. Bridgewater is legit and they are very intriguing. But I still say they don't beat Florida again nor do they sneak up on anybody.
10. Florida - How does Muschamp's team come back from the shocking loss to Louisville? (Any time a SEC team loses to a non-conference opponent it is shocking.) Will they have something to prove this year? Or will they whither? They showed tremendous toughness last year and an LSU like ability to win ugly. Driskel's injury in the first 2 weeks should not have a significant impact unless they sleep on Miami. Luckily they have 6 weeks before they have to go to Baton Rogue.
11. Notre Dame - Alabama problems, girlfriend problems, quarterback problems, it goes no-where but down from here. The defense will keep them in it, but they will come no-where close to last year's success.
12. Florida State - Life after Manuel. I will be honest I do not know anything about their quarterback at the time of this writing. Definitely something I will address before I write again. I feel like 12 is too high for this inconsistent team, but the defense is outstanding.
13. LSU - I had LSU in the top 10 before this poll came out. The only problem with LSU is they never perform the way the "critics" want them to. They win ugly, they don't play mistake free, but you can never count Les Miles out. The talent level is ridiculous and they hit you hard. They are the reason Alabama lost to A&M and only Alabama pulls that game out last year. Yes, LSU lost to Clemson, but you cannot leave a defense on the field for an entire half of football against anybody and expect to win. If Miles lets Cameron call the plays this year, I would not be surprised to see a log jam of LSU, A&M, and Alabama at the top. The only problem is they have to play each other.
14. Oklahoma State - Another confession, in the form of a question: Did I miss something here? Never considered OK State for a top 25, let alone a top 15 contender. Anyone reading this, please feel free to send me a comment or an email to get me caught up. Week 1 we will learn A LOT.
15. Texas - They are coming back. Probably not there yet. Good spot for them.
16. Oklahoma - Right where they belong. But if they win 2 blow-outs and Clemson or Louisville struggle, I am sure the coaches will find a way to put Stoops and Co back in the Top 10.
17. Michigan - Absolutely the second or first best team in the Big Ten. But that's not saying a lot. I like the new quarterback and would not be shocked to see them challenge the Top 10 halfway through the season. But it is the Big 10 and losing in this conference is not going to do them any favors. The Notre Dame game in the second game of the season looms as the biggest test all year.
18. Nebraska - Taylor Martinez should be given all the praise in the world for all the hard work he has put in, and it is truly paying off. The offense is dynamic all-though struggles with identity from time to time, the loss of Burkhead will not mean as much as people think because Abdullah has already been getting a ton of carries. The biggest question is, who plays on Defense? Or better yet, who coaches the defense? If the offense struggles with identity the defense can't find a simple reflection. The blackshirts, they are not. If anything resembling a defense can come out of Lincoln, this team could be Top 10 and atop the Big 10.
19. Boise State - Is the love affair over here? Can we go home? I have nothing but respect for these guys, but when are they going to play someone and quit their bitching? I want to see them against legit teams, more than one time a year, then I will judge them.
20. TCU - Unlike their Boise cousins from a few years ago, TCU decided to put their game where their mouth is. Not a great first year in the Big 12, but there was a ton of controversy going on at a Christian University. They start the year with LSU and a huge chance to set the world on fire.
21. UCLA - They play in a tough conference with some really tough teams. They may have over-achieved last year but will look to build off of all that success. It is good to see them back.
22. Northwestern - They only lost to Penn St, Nebraska, and Michigan by a combined 9 points last year. Then they beat an SEC team in a bowl game, and did not just beat them, but BEAT them. If they only played in a stronger conference so we could really tell what they are made of. It would make for an interesting season if they aren't one and dones. A weak non-conference schedule and then they start Big Ten play against Ohio State. We will see who is over/under rated.
23. Wisconsin - A new coach in town, but anyone who saw Utah State last year knows Mr. Anderson has got what it takes. Wisconsin is not what they were a few years ago but will probably not be down long. The 3-4 defense will be interesting to see how the players adapt. But as long as Nebraska stays on the schedule Wisconsin should be okay.
24. USC - The California team. This seems like a pity-rank to me. Oh poor Lane Kiffin....his team under-achieved so bad that Daddy left...they won't be here long. And by "here" I mean the Top 25.
25. Oregon State - Should definitely be higher than USC. If not for the that OTHER team in the same state Oregon State might be able to get some headlines. They were absolutely tough last year, but no one will be sleeping on them this year.
Teams to watch: Ole Miss, Arizona State, Miami
Once again, thank you for reading, agree or dis-agree but please leave your comments or email me at collegefootballfanweekly@gmail.com.
Next post: Ranking the Power Conferences
1. Alabama - I have nothing to add here. They are number one till someone proves otherwise.
2. Ohio State - AND LET THE LOVE AFFAIR WITH URBAN MEYER BEGIN!!! I knew this was going to happen. In my mock Top 10 I did not have them numbered. Yes they went un-defeated last year, yes Urban Meyer is an amazing coach, yes they have talent....BUT...they play in the Big Ten....not exactly a power-house, and they did not have anything to lose last year so they had no pressure. This year is all different, except that the Big 10 still sucks. Now they have everything to lose particularly with a #2 ranking. But with Meyer's coaching and the talent on this team I would not be surprised to see them go un-defeated again, but does that mean they are the second best team in the country? Not by a long shot. It is funny to me that Urban Meyer trounced an over-ranked Ohio State team for a national championship, and now he is the reason for an over-ranked Ohio State team.
3. Oregon - The biggest question is: Will there be a drop off from Chip Kelly? The pre-season issues do not bother me and I think are over-blown, but without Kelly's fire and his football mind I do not think the Ducks are good enough for 3.
4. Stanford - This is a team I continually wrote off the past 2 years and all they did was win games. They are an SEC team in the PAC-12. I would love to see them make the championship game. Great coaching, hard, tough team. I like them higher than #4.
5. Georgia - The most over-rated SEC team year in and year out. I know they almost beat Alabama in the SEC championship, but they didn't. This is the same team that got steam-rolled by South Carolina last year and looks weak against cupcakes from time to time. If Georgia can put it all together for an entire season, they could be the team to take Alabama down.
6. Texas A&M - This is the #2 team in the country if Johnny Manziel can remember he lives in College Station and NOT Hollywood.
7. USC - The one down south. Last year the California USC was the talk of the early season; little did we know that when we said USC we actually meant University of South Carolina. This team only got better, they showed up in big games, except against LSU (but who wins that game except Alabama?), and they are primed to get it done this year.
8. Clemson - Last year Florida State was the talk of the ACC, but Florida State didn't beat LSU in a bowl game. With their returning quarterback, an offense that shows no signs of being stopped, and a huge desire, this team could make some noise this year as well.
9. Louisville - No problems with them being ranked this high. Playing in the Big East will hurt their chances to make it to the elite level. Bridgewater is legit and they are very intriguing. But I still say they don't beat Florida again nor do they sneak up on anybody.
10. Florida - How does Muschamp's team come back from the shocking loss to Louisville? (Any time a SEC team loses to a non-conference opponent it is shocking.) Will they have something to prove this year? Or will they whither? They showed tremendous toughness last year and an LSU like ability to win ugly. Driskel's injury in the first 2 weeks should not have a significant impact unless they sleep on Miami. Luckily they have 6 weeks before they have to go to Baton Rogue.
11. Notre Dame - Alabama problems, girlfriend problems, quarterback problems, it goes no-where but down from here. The defense will keep them in it, but they will come no-where close to last year's success.
12. Florida State - Life after Manuel. I will be honest I do not know anything about their quarterback at the time of this writing. Definitely something I will address before I write again. I feel like 12 is too high for this inconsistent team, but the defense is outstanding.
13. LSU - I had LSU in the top 10 before this poll came out. The only problem with LSU is they never perform the way the "critics" want them to. They win ugly, they don't play mistake free, but you can never count Les Miles out. The talent level is ridiculous and they hit you hard. They are the reason Alabama lost to A&M and only Alabama pulls that game out last year. Yes, LSU lost to Clemson, but you cannot leave a defense on the field for an entire half of football against anybody and expect to win. If Miles lets Cameron call the plays this year, I would not be surprised to see a log jam of LSU, A&M, and Alabama at the top. The only problem is they have to play each other.
14. Oklahoma State - Another confession, in the form of a question: Did I miss something here? Never considered OK State for a top 25, let alone a top 15 contender. Anyone reading this, please feel free to send me a comment or an email to get me caught up. Week 1 we will learn A LOT.
15. Texas - They are coming back. Probably not there yet. Good spot for them.
16. Oklahoma - Right where they belong. But if they win 2 blow-outs and Clemson or Louisville struggle, I am sure the coaches will find a way to put Stoops and Co back in the Top 10.
17. Michigan - Absolutely the second or first best team in the Big Ten. But that's not saying a lot. I like the new quarterback and would not be shocked to see them challenge the Top 10 halfway through the season. But it is the Big 10 and losing in this conference is not going to do them any favors. The Notre Dame game in the second game of the season looms as the biggest test all year.
18. Nebraska - Taylor Martinez should be given all the praise in the world for all the hard work he has put in, and it is truly paying off. The offense is dynamic all-though struggles with identity from time to time, the loss of Burkhead will not mean as much as people think because Abdullah has already been getting a ton of carries. The biggest question is, who plays on Defense? Or better yet, who coaches the defense? If the offense struggles with identity the defense can't find a simple reflection. The blackshirts, they are not. If anything resembling a defense can come out of Lincoln, this team could be Top 10 and atop the Big 10.
19. Boise State - Is the love affair over here? Can we go home? I have nothing but respect for these guys, but when are they going to play someone and quit their bitching? I want to see them against legit teams, more than one time a year, then I will judge them.
20. TCU - Unlike their Boise cousins from a few years ago, TCU decided to put their game where their mouth is. Not a great first year in the Big 12, but there was a ton of controversy going on at a Christian University. They start the year with LSU and a huge chance to set the world on fire.
21. UCLA - They play in a tough conference with some really tough teams. They may have over-achieved last year but will look to build off of all that success. It is good to see them back.
22. Northwestern - They only lost to Penn St, Nebraska, and Michigan by a combined 9 points last year. Then they beat an SEC team in a bowl game, and did not just beat them, but BEAT them. If they only played in a stronger conference so we could really tell what they are made of. It would make for an interesting season if they aren't one and dones. A weak non-conference schedule and then they start Big Ten play against Ohio State. We will see who is over/under rated.
23. Wisconsin - A new coach in town, but anyone who saw Utah State last year knows Mr. Anderson has got what it takes. Wisconsin is not what they were a few years ago but will probably not be down long. The 3-4 defense will be interesting to see how the players adapt. But as long as Nebraska stays on the schedule Wisconsin should be okay.
24. USC - The California team. This seems like a pity-rank to me. Oh poor Lane Kiffin....his team under-achieved so bad that Daddy left...they won't be here long. And by "here" I mean the Top 25.
25. Oregon State - Should definitely be higher than USC. If not for the that OTHER team in the same state Oregon State might be able to get some headlines. They were absolutely tough last year, but no one will be sleeping on them this year.
Teams to watch: Ole Miss, Arizona State, Miami
Once again, thank you for reading, agree or dis-agree but please leave your comments or email me at collegefootballfanweekly@gmail.com.
Next post: Ranking the Power Conferences
Another Sports Blog
Hello to everyone that is reading this, and THANK YOU. I hope you continue to come back. I know a lot of you are thinking, "another sports blog?" What can this poor writer hope to accomplish that has not already been done. Well, my goal is a lofty one. I hope to bring un-biased, un-bought, honest, straightforward opinions, THAT MAKE SENSE, to the world of college football writing. I will not intentionally be controversial, nor will I shy away from calling things the way I see it. I will also be following a weekly format so you, the reader, will know when to expect a post, what to expect from that post, and to cut down on random, post any-time about anything posts. I will have a twitter account once the season officially starts for such shenanigans.
The format will be as follows:
Saturday nights will bring posts about the "big game" from the day and all the action in college football that day, as well as my prediction for the Top 10 on Sunday
Sunday will bring posts about the new Top 25, Coaches and BCS
Wednesdays will bring a post about interesting stories in the world of college football
Thursdays I will ask for all members of the blog to let me know what the "big game" will be on Saturday
Fridays I will announce the "big game", answer any emails I may have got during the week, and preview the Saturday ahead
I look forward to writing this blog and I hope to find many readers who will enjoy reading it as well!!!
Next up: My review of the first Top 25 of the season
The format will be as follows:
Saturday nights will bring posts about the "big game" from the day and all the action in college football that day, as well as my prediction for the Top 10 on Sunday
Sunday will bring posts about the new Top 25, Coaches and BCS
Wednesdays will bring a post about interesting stories in the world of college football
Thursdays I will ask for all members of the blog to let me know what the "big game" will be on Saturday
Fridays I will announce the "big game", answer any emails I may have got during the week, and preview the Saturday ahead
I look forward to writing this blog and I hope to find many readers who will enjoy reading it as well!!!
Next up: My review of the first Top 25 of the season
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